Does Gronholm have a big enough lead?

[Corny]

no he hasn't, he will lose at least 2 points in every tarmac rally, and will maybe lose some gravel events by being first on the road on day 1..

[J4MIE]

Whatever, I hope it will be exciting and that the title isn't lost by a retirement after a silly mistake - from either of them.

I think it's crucial that Marcus settles for high points on the tarmac rounds and doesn't throw anything away.

[Brother John]

no he hasn't, he will lose at least 2 points in every tarmac rally, and will maybe lose some gravel events by being first on the road on day 1..

He can go off road such as everyone els!

[leno]

it is to soon to predict who will be chanpion, everything can happen

[Zes]

One thing is sure. Sebastien is not allowed to retire anymore. 19pts could be too much to catch, even for him.

By the way, last time when Sebastien retired because of technical problem was in Sweden 2005. The second Citroen has had problems more often. It's a matter of time when this happens to Seb...

[kleisj]

Well the difference is too sort. However the pressure is more on Loeb's shoulders than Gronholm's given that he is chasing instead of being chased as usual.
In the Acropolis first time I actually saw Loeb being stressed and having the pressure on him. He has no margin for error but ofcourse the same applies to Marcus.
Furthermore it would be great if Solberg and Subaru can repeat their last performance to add some more pressure to the championship contenders. Make the fight more interesting.
Gronholm we know is human. We had the proof in the past. This year was Loeb's turn to show the signs...! And he has!

Even in the current boring format I 'm still interested to see what will happen!

[MikeD]

Does Gronholm have enough of a lead heading into the half time break?

My opinion - no! Here's why:

(Starting with a 9 point lead)

Finland: Gronholm 10 points, Loeb 8 Points.
Germany: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
New Zealand: Could go either way, but let’s say Gronholm 10, Loeb 8
Spain: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
France: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
Japan: Could go either way, but let’s say Loeb 10, Gronholm 8 this time
Ireland: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)

Obviously total speculation but if the above was true then Gronholm would be trailing Loeb by 5 points heading into Wales.

In my opinion for Marcus to win the championship he needs to start beating Sordo on tarmac, remember how dominant the C4 was in the Monte. With 4 tarmac events in the second half, he has his work cut out. Not to mention how important wins in NZ and Japan will be.

Anyway I just thank Mr. Loeb for that off in Sardinia - it should make for the best drivers championship in years.

Also don't forget if the C4 goes 1 and 2 on the 4 tarmac rallies then that's at least 28 points of Fords lead in the Constructor’s gone, which just happens to be the current margin.

My prediction is both titles will be decided in Wales with Sebastian and Ford the respective champions.

Flame proof suit now on.

So what's your prediction?

I have done similar calculations as well and my conclussions are close to yours. Either loeb wins the title with a margin of 5 points or Gronholm win the title with a similar margin. In other words this year it will be very close.
But there are a couple of differences (as mentioned by other). One more DNF by Loeb and it will be game over for him. Gronholm can survive a DNF but then it has to be in a tarmac rally where he realistic would only score 6 points.

PS: If i have to guess I would say that Sardegna will cost Loeb this years title.

[White Sauron]

in a tarmac rally where he realistic would only score 6 points.

You really think that double world champ, who won im Monte, who all but won in 2003 in germany against Loeb, who was leading Monte 2004 in a crap Peugeot 307, who was leading in Spain 2006 before mechanical (!!) problems, and who won in first attempt in a very difficult Irish rally, can score only 6 points on tarmac and let Sordo move ahead of him? haha... As was previously said, in Monte Marcus was only third because the team hadn't nominated the tyres which suited the conditions and which Citroens were usuing at the moment. But even in this situation Gro was able to be head and shouders faster than anyone else except chevrons.

[Zes]

Also, it's interesting to see how Sordo handles pressure. If Citroen wants to have the manufacturers title, Sordo has to win both Marcus and Mikko on tarmac in every event. He must have a lot pressure, because of that.

[MikeD]

Also, it's interesting to see how Sordo handles pressure. If Citroen wants to have the manufacturers title, Sordo has to win both Marcus and Mikko on tarmac in every event. He must have a lot pressure, because of that.

I think manufacturers title is lost for Citroen. A 28 point gap is massive and I see Citroen and their lineup close that gap as the situation is at the moment. They better focus all on the drivers title.