Have we passed the peak of F1? The future of the formula.

[airshifter]

Started after being inspired by Starters comments on the "Do we need more cars on the grid" thread, along with others engaging those statements.

First, the near future.


2026 brings changes to the cars. Among them are:


Sustainable fuels

Increase in MGU-K power from 120KW to 350KW

No more MGU-H due mostly to cost

New lower fuel limits - now to be based on energy vs flow to cover differing fuels


Though little is confirmed yet on the chassis regs, initial reports through AMuS on discussions with Pat Symonds (you know the guy banned for life due to Crashgate who is now the Chief Technical Officer of F1) gives us some general direction:

Slightly smaller cars, both width and wheelbase

Weight reduction - hoping for 50kg but stating 20kg is more realistic

Active aero to reduce drag on straights

A mentioned possible "silver bullet" to aid in overtaking, suggestions of something to compensate for the dirty air problems


But when you look at the direction and scope of things, there are also many limiting factors. Though the claims is that overall changes will be big (much bigger than 2022 changes) are they aiming in the right direction? Some simple number crunching suggests that the larger MGU-K will not have enough battery, braking time, or downforce to harvest energy at much more than the current cars. The active aero and speculation of downforce reductions says that the cars might be really fast.... in a straight line. If they are fast enough on the straights, that makes up for some energy recovery with extended braking zones. But I personally don't watch F1 for the straight line stuff, and am curious what the others think.

So far from what I've seen 2026 might be changing the formula enough to create BIG changes in how these cars corner. And from what I've seen of most amateurs estimates of energy recovery, we might be looking at lift and coast strategies coming into play a lot, or lesser outputs than the cars are capable of, or both. Though in theory the cars should have more power on tap, energy storage being limited will likely mean it's never used to it's full potential... releasing full MGU-K power could only be done for about 10 seconds. So chances are many times deployment of electrical energy might be more similar to current cars.

There has been some grumbling and talks that smaller wheels might be used, possibly going to 16 inches or so, in the interest of saving weight. So there is at least one possibility that makes sense, so chances are they will try to kill such talk.



I really hope I'm wrong, but I think they might destroy the formula and the things that have kept it popular.




And long term? Who knows, first we have to survive these next changes and go from there. The hydrogen mention is an option, and I think full electric is out. But most alternative directions include a lot of hurdles, so I think whatever changes in 2026 might stick for a while.



What does everyone else think?

[Firstgear]

Some of that sounds good (smaller, lighter cars, active aero). I don't know about all the numbers and technical changes, but we definitely aren't at the peak right now. imo...the closer you get to a spec series, the further you are from the 'Peak of F1'. And in the last number of years, we seemed to be getting closer and closer to a spec series. Now that there's a cost cap in place, it's time to open up the reg's and allow more innovation. Let teams wander down different design philosophies. If a team wants to throw half of their budget to design an engine that can rev to 20k rpm, let them, as long as everyone has the same allowable budget. Don't just open it up in aero and lock down the engines, etc. Then we'll see who the clever and efficient teams are.
Also (this just came to me so it may be a dumb idea), maybe let teams trade resources (I'll trade you 10 hrs of wind tunnel time for $10million of your cost cap space).

[airshifter]

True enough that the budget cap alone will slow advances, but in time it will come. I really don't want to see a spec series unless it is just that, fully a spec series to sort out the top drivers. As it is now, we are creeping towards a spec-like series and I'm not sure if they will destroy the racing with the 2026 regs.

What we have now IS creating tighter racing, and I enjoy that. But if the "boxes" they have to design within become too small, it's closer to a spec series. I can agree with the engine development and other aspects, maybe just impose energy limits on fuel on board and go from there. The same with electrical stores and deployment.


As it is now, I see us sometime in the near future taking steps towards slower cars. And I don't think anyone wants that. I hope I'm wrong and the racing becomes more exciting, or they at least delayed some of the 2026 regs until they see how the current regs pan out. Then implement the new tech over time, in windows large enough to let them develop as they go and perfect things more. The way I see it, 2026 could easily end up like 2022, with any certain cars having a very large initial design advantage. Unless we stop that to some degree, we will keep ending up in these periods of a certain team dominating. And no matter which team it is, that can get boring.

[Matthew]

I don't think the popularity of F1 is going down but we must see more competition to make it more interesting. It can be sometimes boring to watch only one team dominating the whole season.

[airshifter]

It's a tricky balance. Too many regs and we move towards a spec series. Too few regs or ample ways to catch up and we move towards team dominance. I really don't want either.

So far the new regs seem to be tightening things up, and really if you remove RB there have been some solid swings through the year. There are rumors that RB has been focused on next years car for quite some time, but for now they remain rumors. I'm just glad to see a few teams making solid progress, and at least some of the qually sessions are now tight enough to make race strategy come into the picture more.