What is the perceived 2023 pecking order at this early stages?

[Nitrodaze]

Testing came and went like a blip. Redbull rolled onto the tarmac in commanding form. Looking very much like the car to beat this season as we more or less predicted in the off-season. Ferrari seemed quick but the engine failure for Sauber puts a big question mark on power unit reliability for Ferrari going into the heat of the long season's racing. They are looking like they may be taking some engine penalty this season more than last. Then again, the failure might be a blip. Mercedes turned up and simply underplayed their programme. It is not clear if they are in trouble and how bad it may be. But the whole thing about Mercedes is spiced up by the rumours that they are sandbagging. With the very bouncy nature of the track, it is not clear if porpoising is actually gone for good. Nearly all cars could be seen nodding away at some parts of the track.

But the big sensation out of testing seems to be Alonso and the Aston Martin. The Aston seems quicker than the Mercedes, such that some have actually ventured to say they are ahead of the Mercedes. Alonso fighting in the top three is any racing fan's dream for the 2023 season. That said, some teams appear to have gotten it wrong from the get-go. Mclaren seems to have eggs on their faces and the Alpine just does not seem to have stepped forward from where they were last season. The Hulk is back and Haas is looking like they have their chest out with confidence. Sauber is also looking very impressive in Bottas' hands. And the Williams is looking reliable and solid.

So if asked, how do you see the pecking order
1. after this weekend's race,
2. at mid-season
3. and by the end of the season?
Who is your money to win the driver's championship?
Who shall finish 2nd and 3rd?

Is Mercedes sandbagging?