Who is favorite for the 2017 F1 drivers title?

[jens]

From what I understand, it is pretty much guaranteed Vettel is going to get some grid penalties later in the season. So it is likely he is going to start from the back of the field from, say, two races. Considering, how tough overtaking is this year, he would do well to finish around 4th-5th then. Two such races with two Hamilton wins, and the current gap of 25 points would be gone.

So in my view Vettel would need to keep at least the 25-point margin he currently has to somewhat balance out the handicap, which is bound to arrive later in the season. So I think the championship is still very much open. However, from Hamilton/Mercedes point of view it is also clear that they need to regularly fight for wins and at worst start trading wins from now onwards. They can't afford Monaco-kind of weekends more.

Fundamentally the Mercedes car is fast, about as fast as Ferrari. But it seems kind of difficult to set up. Whether they can overcome this issue during the season or not, is also important. Because otherwise they can fight for race wins pretty consistently (well, except at Monaco).

Any DNF-s is also going to play a big role, because it possibly means a 25-point-swing. How are these going to pan out, also remain to be seen. Vettel looks good at the moment, as everybody has said, but F1 history tells that this is far from over. Especially with cars performing as close as they are. Remember, what happened in 2007 and 2008. Or 2006.