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Thread: Rosbergs replacement
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10th December 2016, 10:45 #21
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10th December 2016, 10:57 #22
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Actually, Wehrlein had five DNFs. How l compared Wehrlein to Ocon was to overlap both of their first F1 race results. Hence, if you take Ocon's 9 races and compare it to Wehrlein's first 9 races of the season. And look at the relative highest positions that they finished a race, then you would see that Wehrlein has the edge over Ocon. Unfortunately, he clearly makes a lot of mistakes which l think is putting teams off him. But look back to early Grosjean and Vettel, they crashed a lot when they first started, look at them now. one is a four times world champion.
In their first nine races each, The highest Ocon was able to manage was 12th place but with no DNFs. Wehrlein on the other hand was able to finish tenth and scored one championship point but had one retirement in that period. Another way to look at it was Ocon managed two top fifteen places while Wehrlein managed three top fifteen place in his first nine races.
The only reason Wehrlein might not get the Silver Arrow seat would be his high DNF record.
But that said, this places abit of complication to the Bottas negotiation as well. Mercedes would probably want to offer a cheaper engine deals and Wehrlein in return for Bottas. Williams may like the idea of cheaper engine but the prospect of having two rookies in the team may not be so attractive. Williams need at least one mature and experienced driver alongside Lance Stroll. Of course there is the option of Di Resta filling that requirement, but it leaves the question of what to do with Wehrlein and what Williams would be asking for Bottas excluding Wehrlein.
Bottas is looking very good for the seat at this time but that depends on a number of things.Last edited by Nitrodaze; 10th December 2016 at 11:15.
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit.
William Shakespeare
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10th December 2016, 11:00 #23
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Quite true, he did not account for himself well in the last two seasons.
Mind you there are other options outside the current grid that would just be as interesting. Verne, Buemi and come to think of it, Kyvat would also be interesting options for the spare seat. Both are very quick. Kyvat need to have his head in the right place tho. They would be a less risky options compared to the Mercedes rookies. And they would win races when Hamilton is having bad days.
Verne is currently a reserve driver at Ferrari, l think. Hence he would not be difficult to obtain. Kyvat just signed for Torro Rosso, but he would not be too difficult to pull away from Torro Rosso judging by how this season has turned out for Kyvat. From Redbull's perspective, it would allow them to get Gastly into F1 as planned.
Are they going to push Hamilton? I think, after they bed into the team, they should be there or there about. But l don't expect they would beat Hamilton over a reliability free season.Last edited by Nitrodaze; 10th December 2016 at 11:28.
Better a witty fool than a foolish wit.
William Shakespeare
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10th December 2016, 12:28 #24
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I think I'd have to put my money on Bottas at the moment. With the rules changes for the year, Merc can't be sure they remain dominant, and I think having a driver with more development time would have to be a consideration at this point. Being that Williams has slipped a little I think the buyout/engine deals/whatever to negotiate might be fairly easy for Mercedes.
But I guess it all depends on whether Mercedes is looking at the short game or the long game. As long as they keep Lewis they have a couple years at least to roll the dice on one of the young guns, and it looks like Pascal is likely the candidate.
As for Alonso, Seb, Kimi, JV, Max..... probably just as much chance I get the ride IMO.
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10th December 2016, 14:36 #25
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According to Saward , Bottas cannot be pried from the seat due to sponsor obligations the team has .
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10th December 2016, 14:49 #26
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I can see how that would complicate things further for the Bottas angle. It kind of leaves the option very narrow for Mercedes doesn't it? This puts Wehrlein back in pole position for this seat. Chances are they would run a good stopgap driver for 2017 and then deal with the situation properly when the 2018 driver market open for business.
In which case, they may experiment with Wehrlein, pull Button out of retirement; if Mclaren would let him of course, give Di Resta a chance or look outside the Mercedes family at the likes of Verne, Nasr, Buemi etc. I think they may pick from within the Mercedes crop of drivers. Hence this may well be a toss up between Wehrlein and Di Resta. It would be great though to see Button alongside Hamilton again.Better a witty fool than a foolish wit.
William Shakespeare
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11th December 2016, 05:31 #27
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As I understand it, the state of play is this:
Mercedes
X - ???
44 - Hamilton
Red Bull-TAG
3 - Ricciardo
33 - Verstappen
Ferrari
5 - Vettel
7 - Raikkonen
Force India-Mercedes
11 - Perez
31 - Ocon
Williams-Mercedes
77 - Bottas
18 - Stroll
McLaren-Honda
14 - Alonso
2 - Vandoorne
Toro Rosso-Ferrari
26 - Kyvat
55 - Sainz
Haas-Ferrari
8 - Grosjean
20 - Magnussen
Renault
27 - Hulkenburg
30 - Palmer
Sauber-Ferrari
9 - Ericsson
X - ???
Manor-Mercedes
X - ???
X - ???
There just aren't that many drivers out there who are free. Apart from Kobayashi, Piquet, Buemi and Nakajima, who is left that wouldn't require serious contract negotiation? Formula E is littered with has beens and scraping the barrel of GP2 is a gamble.The Old Republic was a stupidly run organisation which deserved to be taken over. All Hail Palpatine!
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11th December 2016, 11:36 #28
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Well wiith an eye on marketing, they could raid IndyCar for good young drivers like the already licensed Alexander Rossi or Josef Newgarden or, if they really want to go off the main floor, a hotshot newby in Nascar like Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson.
This is my opinion and to the best of my knowledge, that is, if I'm not joking
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11th December 2016, 19:39 #29
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Of course, Mercedes are going to give the F1 world champion's car to a driver who has little or no single seater experience (Elliott; Larson).
Outside of the Indy Car community (which unfortunately is very small), hardly anyone has ever heard of Newgarden, so I don't see any big marketing potential there.
Rossi of course has already driven in F1, but not really done as well as Wehrlein in comperable machinery, so why go for him and not the one who is already under contract to Mercedes (and has done simulator work for them)?
Besides, considering how "well" drivers coming from Indy/Champ Car have done in the past (Michael Andretti, Zanardi, Da Matta; Montoya doesn't really count because he was only parked in CART for two seasons before a Williams drive became available), I highly doubt Mercedes are going to waste many a thought on that possibility.Oct. 31, 1999 - one of the blackest days in motorsports.
- Likes: Tazio (11th December 2016)
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11th December 2016, 22:49 #30
Williams reject initial offer for Botas which includes Wehrlein and engine cost reduction... Paddy Lowe to Williams.... and James Allison to Mercedes?
Wow!
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38282791
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