Which driver can realistically fight for the Championship?

[smsgrafica]

Since the departure of VW and the new driver lineups that this will bring, I was thinking about which driver could realistically fight for the Championship considering his own abilities.

* * *
I'm speaking only about the driver's capabilities here, not the cars they'll be driving!
* * *

Ogier
Well, he's already won it 4 times, so he's a given.
YES

Meeke
He's really fast on every surface, but makes too many mistakes. He'd need to find way more consistency than he's shown so far to be a real contender.
PERHAPS

Neuville
He also is fast on every surface and in the second half of the 2016 season he's been as consistent as anyone. If he doesn't regress, he could deliver a WC.
YES

Latvala
Equally fast everywhere, but lacks mental strength. His form can be exceptional or lackluster during the same event, which doesn't bode well with the consistency needed for a title.
NO

Mikkelsen
He's a bit of an unknown. He's shown great speed on nearly every event, but he still has to prove if it was him or the car. For sure in 2016 he's been really consistent, also taking into account that he started 2nd on the road most of the time.
PERHAPS

Paddon
Very quick on gravel, but he's not so good on tarmac, which means he'd have to compensate for bad results in 3-4 rallies. I don't think he's a contender yet.
NO

Tanak
Great overall speed, but way too inconsistent. Sometimes he's on top, sometimes he's down the order and he doesn't know why.
NO

Sordo
He's consistent, very fast on tarmac, but a hit and miss on gravel. Not enough for a real chance on the WC.
NO

Ostberg, Camilli, Hänninen
Just too slow for being in the mix just for a win anywhere, so no chance here.
NO

[Andre Oliveira]

Simple, Ogier in whatever have 4 wheels. He is the best! Meeke failure in pressure, Latvala too. Neuville too irregular. Paddon too soon to fight like that. Tänak need win rallies first. The others? To weak....

[Franky]

Tanak
Great overall speed, but way too inconsistent. Sometimes he's on top, sometimes he's down the order and he doesn't know why.
NO

Have you heard of the magical black round things called Dmacks?

[BigWorm]

Meeke is too fast for himself to handle sometimes. Given his age, I think this will never change. He will win rallies, but he will also end up in a ditch as many times as winning.

[Mintexmemory]

Simple, Ogier in whatever have 4 wheels. He is the best! Meeke failure in pressure, Latvala too. Neuville too irregular. Paddon too soon to fight like that. Tänak need win rallies first. The others? To weak....

Mr O has said very much what I think, BUT...
How do we know that the Fiesta (if that's where Seb ends up) isn't the pile of unpredictable crap the has plagued poor Mads for the past 2 years? - OK I am being mischievous but that is the big question. Certainly in a Hyundai Ogier would be just as dominant as he was in a Polo.
As Latvala and Mikkelsen couldn't do it after 4 years in the best car they sure as hell won't do it against Ogier anywhere else. Also if Ogier were 'resting' for a year there are at least 6 drivers on about the same level so my money would be on Meeke or Neuville.

[seb_sh]

Meeke is too fast for himself to handle sometimes. Given his age, I think this will never change. He will win rallies, but he will also end up in a ditch as many times as winning.

I think he has the same problem as Solberg and Latvala: when someone is faster they push and eventually they go over the limit. Loeb and Ogier can sustain a high pace with less risk, that's their main advantage. Only Neuville has shown signs of that occasionally. Meeke was fast and controlled only when circumstances favoured him, we will see next year if his form in 2016 was 'true'.

So no, other than Ogier I don't see a potential WDC atm, he is one whole level above the rest.

[smsgrafica]

Have you heard of the magical black round things called Dmacks?

Of course I have, but look at his 2015 season with M-Sport and you'll see the same inconsistency. He just isn't ready to be at the top all the time. Or do you think Wilson has demoted Tanak with no reason?

Meeke was fast and controlled only when circumstances favoured him, we will see next year if his form in 2016 was 'true'.

It's funny how Meeke's 2016 season is perceived. You might think he's had a great year, but if you look at the rallies he has driven, you'll see how his points total is not very good.

He had 2 wins, one 5th place, one 16th place, one 23rd place and 2 retirements. This makes a total of 64 points out of a possible 196.

Let's look at the standings for these rallies:

Ogier 152
Neuville 79
Mikkelsen 63
Latvala 50
Paddon 49

[BicioWrc]

Of course I have, but look at his 2015 season with M-Sport and you'll see the same inconsistency. He just isn't ready to be at the top all the time. Or do you think Wilson has demoted Tanak with no reason?



It's funny how Meeke's 2016 season is perceived. You might think he's had a great year, but if you look at the rallies he has driven, you'll see how his points total is not very good.

He had 2 wins, one 5th place, one 16th place, one 23rd place and 2 retirements. This makes a total of 64 points out of a possible 196.

Let's look at the standings for these rallies:

Ogier 152
Neuville 79
Mikkelsen 63
Latvala 50
Paddon 49

In Montecarlo and Sweden Meeke was just unlucky (Ogier made 2 mistakes in sweden but was smart and also lucky to go out with minimum conseguences) .... so i think if i'm not wrong Overall Meeke made just 2 real mistakes this season..in france and in catalunya (in extreme condition)
vs One mistake of Ogier in finland....
This don't mean i consider Meeke stronger then Ogier, but i believe Chris can fight for the championship next year.

[BigWorm]

Of course I have, but look at his 2015 season with M-Sport and you'll see the same inconsistency. He just isn't ready to be at the top all the time. Or do you think Wilson has demoted Tanak with no reason?



It's funny how Meeke's 2016 season is perceived. You might think he's had a great year, but if you look at the rallies he has driven, you'll see how his points total is not very good.

He had 2 wins, one 5th place, one 16th place, one 23rd place and 2 retirements. This makes a total of 64 points out of a possible 196.

Let's look at the standings for these rallies:

Ogier 152
Neuville 79
Mikkelsen 63
Latvala 50
Paddon 49

And when the pressure is on, he'll be more accident prone. Consistency is like a personality when it comes to rally drivers. Mechanical or driver errors, for some drivers it's inevitable. For Meeke it definitely is and that's why I don't think he will ever be a champion.

[smsgrafica]

Let's look at the standings for these rallies:

Ogier 152
Neuville 79
Mikkelsen 63
Latvala 50
Paddon 49

I forgot to list Sordo with 63 points, Ostberg with 57 and Tanak with 46.

Updated standings:

Ogier 152
Neuville 79
Meeke 64
Mikkelsen 63
Sordo 63
Ostberg 57
Latvala 50
Paddon 49
Tanak 46