What is the 2018 grid going to look like?

[Nitrodaze]

What is likely to happen in 2018 has a bearing on who is going where in 2017, i think. Mercedes seats only become available in 2019. Redbull is well sealed with Ricciado and Verstapenn. However, both Ferrari seats are open for change in 2018. But for the 2017 season, the following teams are still unclear of their lineup; Williams, Force India, Mclaren, Torro Rosso and Renault being the main midfield seats. Hence, any driver swapping to these midfield seats may be doing so because they know they are unlikely to get the Ferrari seats in 2018.

Which drivers are likely to move teams in the 2017 season, you may ask. Peres for one, is looking to move to a team capable of winning races in 2017. Hence l can see Peres in either the Williams or Renault.

Williams need a money bag driver like Peres. It is noticeable the Williams progress has stalled since Maldonado took his money bag to Lotus. Peres and his sponsors could really help put Williams back in the sharp end of the grid. Like Maldonado, Peres is very likely to win a race or two where the opportunity presents itself. More important to Williams is, Peres is a quick driver and very capable of getting the Williams on the podium with his unique driving style. From Peres' perspective, he his more likely to impress better in a fast Williams that is capable of winning races than a Force India that is not.

Renault may find Peres' quality as a driver more interesting than his money bags. With a change in regulations, Renault need experienced drivers in their cars to progress up the grid in 2017, hence Peres may be irresistible to Renault if they can get him. But can they convince Peres that they can win races in 2017 or 2018? From Peres' perspective, driving for a works team is every driver's ambition. A works team like Renault is more likely to win championships than a customer team like Force India or Williams. Hence Peres move to Renault makes sense and seem most likely. Besides, it would show clearly what Renault's ambition really is for 2017 and 2018.

Bottas is another driver that may become available in 2017. Frankly, l think it would be a mistake for Williams to let him go. But it may be out their hands, if Renault or Ferrari decide to have him. Maybe not Ferrari, but a Bottas - Peres line up at Renault would be a very strong pairing. Enough to cause Redbull and Ferrari to take notice. Renault would be a big lure for Bottas, being a works team. The Renault engine is increasingly becoming as competitive as the Mercedes and Ferrari. With new Regulations for 2017, Renault is a better gamble than the Williams at the moment. Hence, my money is on Bottas and Peres at Renault. That would probably mean Magnussen would end up either at Williams or Force India. I think Massa shall be going into retirement and Kyvat may be seeking employment in the Fomula e series next season. If Mclaren do not sign Vandoone, l can see him at Williams if Magnussen goes to Force India or the other way round. There is also the possibility that it turns out to be a Magnussen - Vandoone pairing at Williams. If Mclaren signs Vandoone, I can see Button along side Magnussen or Bottas at Williams to help develop the new car, if Peres goes to Renault. Alfonso Celis along side Hulkenburg at the Force India for 2017. With Pierre Gasly slotting along side Sainz, depending on how the rest of the season goes for him.

How do you see it?

[Stan Reid]

I just saw where a 13-year-old kid won a B league Nascar late model race earlier this year. Maybe a replacement for Nico next year?

[Nitrodaze]

Perez may be in the running for a Ferrari seat by end of 2018, hence may be why he has stayed put at Force India. Button taking a sabbatical sort of muddy's the water abit. But Massa retiring and Vandoone being offered Button's seat is still very much to prediction. It is still up in the air and surprise moves are still possible.

The lineup may be as follows for the teams still undeclared:-

Williams - Bottas, Nasr [Werhlein is also a possibility but depends on funding]
Renault - Verne or Sirotkin , Magnussen
Manor - Ocon, [Alex Lynn if Werhlein goes to Williams] or [Sirotkin if Werhlein goes to Renault]
Torro Rosso - Sainz, Pierre Gasly [Kyvat may also keep his seat, but l doubt it]

If it goes as above, then 2018 may be unchanged from the 2017 lineup but changes at Mercedes, Ferrari and possibly Redbull can be expected going into 2019. I am guessing that the following may occur in 2019:-

Mercedes - Vettel, Werhlien
Ferrari - Hamilton, Peres
Redbull - Verstappen, Sainz
Williams - Nasr, Lynn
Force India - Bottas, Grosjean
Renault - Sirotkin, Rosberg
Mclaren - Vandoone, Ricciado
Torro Rosso - Gasly, ??
Saubar - Magnussen, Erickssen
Haas - Hulkenberg or [Rossi or another American], Gutierrez

What is your prediction?

[N. Jones]

14 teams, 28 cars, points to eighth place.
Dreamin'!

[Nitrodaze]

14 teams, 28 cars, points to eighth place.
Dreamin'!

May still happen with the new owners taking over. I like the current format of points to tenth place. It helps team morale and a fairer prize money distribution.

[Nitrodaze]

The lineup may be as follows for the teams still undeclared:-

Williams - Bottas, Nasr [Werhlein is also a possibility but depends on funding]
Renault - Verne or Sirotkin , Magnussen
Manor - Ocon, [Alex Lynn if Werhlein goes to Williams] or [Sirotkin if Werhlein goes to Renault]
Torro Rosso - Sainz, Pierre Gasly [Kyvat may also keep his seat, but l doubt it]

Hands up, l got all of the above wrong. I was kind of blind sighted by Stroll but it is great to have a Canadian on the grid. A F3 champion suggest he would be rapid. Also great that Kyvat has kept his seat at Torro Rosso, l personally think he should have tried to get into a renault seat. I also did not see Hulkenburg departing Force India, l sort of expected Peres to move elsewhere like Williams or Renault. But Renault was a great move for The Hulk. it is great that Palmer gets to keep his seat. It is also a great move for Magnussen to head to Haas. Hope they build on their great entry year in 2017.
It was puzzling though that Force India picks Ocon over Wehrlein, not sure why they thought Ocon was a better choice? I wonder if Mercedes has told Force India to steer clear of their future hope. All in all, l did not get a single placement right. Hence you could safely write off my 2018 guesses. Well apart from guessing Bottas would stay at Williams and Sainz plus Kyvat (sort of) would stay at Torro Rosso.

We get to see the business side of Haas as well, as they were quick to jettison Gutierrez who has under performed compared to the more experienced Grosjean. Magnussen would give Grosjean a run for his money l am sure.

[AndyL]

Re Ocon vs Wehrlein, there was something that happened in the last race that prompted Martin Brundle to comment that it showed why other teams were losing interest in Wehrlein; but I can't remember what it was. Did anyone else catch that?

According to JamesAllenOnF1, Ocon going to FI was a part of the same deal that sent Hulkenberg from FI to Renault.

Gutierrez, I didn't think he'd actually done that badly, but Magnussen is surely a much better prospect so a good move for Haas.

[Nitrodaze]

Re Ocon vs Wehrlein, there was something that happened in the last race that prompted Martin Brundle to comment that it showed why other teams were losing interest in Wehrlein; but I can't remember what it was. Did anyone else catch that?

According to JamesAllenOnF1, Ocon going to FI was a part of the same deal that sent Hulkenberg from FI to Renault.

Gutierrez, I didn't think he'd actually done that badly, but Magnussen is surely a much better prospect so a good move for Haas.

I think in Mexico, Wehrlein had a problem with the car which he was attempting to sort out himself. But the Manor pit wall told him on the radio to switch the engine off because of high temperatures l think, but Werhlein carried on fiddling to get going for abit longer than the team liked. He eventually switched the engine off and there was no damage. But it was an incident that did not go without notice.

I would be quite surprised if that incident has swayed Force India away from him. On paper, Wehrlein is the better choice. He is clearly quick. He has managed to chalk up one championship point in an inferior car compared to the competition. Prior to the aforementioned incident, he has been a very trouble free driver. He is also very likeable and press friendly. That is not to suggest that Ocon isn't.

On Ocon, he has had a number of test days in the Force India. Hence, he is not that inexperienced of F1 cars. That said, Wehrein has had half a season's experience of driving the Manor, hence appears the stronger of the pair. I suppose Force India has seen something in Ocon which is not apparent to us.

The question really is, is the move to Force India the right one for either of them at this time. Like Stroll who has to get quickly up to within 3 hundredth of a second of Bottas's time. Ocon would be expected to get up to pace with Perez in a shorter time than Stroll. He didn't quite catchup with Wehrlein so far, hence Perez may make him look ordinary which may blight his prospects for a Mercedes seat.

Wehrlein on the other hand just has to beat whomever replaces Ocon in the Manor.