Is the title fight still on?

**steveaki13** · 18th April 2016, 13:28

So lets get a thread going to create some chat.

Nico Rosberg has won the first 3 races and as has been well publicized no one has ever won the first 3 races and not won the title.

I know there is more races than ever this season, but with ever better reliability and maybe Lewis not looking quite as on it. Slow starts and having incidents.

Do you think the title is still very much on? Or is Rosberg heading for his first world title and easily so?

What do you think?

**AndyL** · 18th April 2016, 14:16

My feeling is yes, it's still on. Hamilton has had some slip-ups but the speed is still there. Sooner or later Rosberg will have some problems too.

Stat attack:
So we know that no-one's won the first 3 races and lost the championship. But has anyone been this far behind after 3 races and won the championship? Turns out yes. Lewis is 1.44 wins behind in the points standings right now. Looking through the record books, here are some other examples:

2003: Schumacher had just 8 points after 3 rounds and Raikkonen had 24, 1.6 wins ahead on points.
1993: Senna was ahead of Prost by 12 points = 1.2 wins after 3 rounds.
1988: Prost was ahead of Senna by 14 points = 1.56 wins after 3 rounds.
1982: Prost led Rosberg by 10 points (1.1 wins).

So bigger deficits have been recovered. However in 3 of the 4 cases above, the contenders were in different teams, so there was the possibility for one driver's car to improve relative to the other. That's an advantage Lewis won't have over Nico. 1988, with Senna and Prost both at McLaren, is the most directly comparable example. So if Lewis is to win the championship, he will have to match something that only Senna has done in recent years.

**steveaki13** · 18th April 2016, 15:10

That's a great post Andy and really interesting. Thanks

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**Storm** · 18th April 2016, 15:31

I had written off Rosberg before the season but seems like Hamilton is trying hard to write himself off. If he doesn't have the motivation for title #4 maybe he needs to take a break?
No but seriously, Rosberg will run into some problems somewhere, its just that Hamilton now has no safety net. Just needs to win and hope that there are some low scoring or dnf races for Nico. Should be good for the show ; Rosberg winning everything will be Button part2

**The Black Knight** · 18th April 2016, 15:49

Originally Posted by Storm

I had written off Rosberg before the season but seems like Hamilton is trying hard to write himself off. If he doesn't have the motivation for title #4 maybe he needs to take a break?
No but seriously, Rosberg will run into some problems somewhere, its just that Hamilton now has no safety net. Just needs to win and hope that there are some low scoring or dnf races for Nico. Should be good for the show ; Rosberg winning everything will be Button part2

Lets take a look back at Hamilton's season so far:

Australia - Got pole. Had a bad start through no fault of his own (teams own admission) and finished second.
Bahrain - Got pole. Had a bad start again through no fault of his own - incorrect start procedure.
China - His car broke down in qualifying so he had to start from the back .Got hit by a Sauber in the first corner, and looking from the onboard he couldn't do a lot about it, which cost him any chance of moving towards the field.

So, in what part of all this, how is Hamilton trying hard to write himself off?

He's had bad luck and we haven't had a chance to see him and Rosberg go head to head yet. It's one of the worst starts to a title defense I've witnessed with a driver that has a competitive car. We'll see how it goes but it'll probably take him half the season to claw the points back. Anyone complaining that Rosberg had all the luck last year can certainly not complain about that anymore now.

I must say this whole no time in history has a driver won 3 and not lost the championship rubbish really annoys me. Winning the first three races in a season is no different than winning three races in a row. Plenty of drivers have won 3 races in a row and not won the title.

There was a time when they said whomever won Brazil was going to be champion and then finally when that myth was broken we heard no more about it.

**Tazio** · 18th April 2016, 15:55

I think The Boss can still pull off the WDC, but I also think he is in a heap 'o trouble. If the trend doesn't change soon Lewis will be toast. As of now UK based sportsbooks have Nico as the favorite

With Rosberg already 36 points ahead after three races bet365 has slashed his odds to 4/6. Hamilton's have climbed to 11/8, ahead of Sebastian Vettel's 12/1. The next closest are Kimi Raikkonen and Daniel Ricciardo, both with odds of 100/1 for the title.

However it's not time to panic yet

**N4D13** · 18th April 2016, 16:28

The thread title made me think "WTF?".

Yes, Rosberg has a massive advantage, we cannot forget that, and he seems to have the momentum going into the Russian GP. However, in the only benchmark that we have to compare both drivers' performances (qualifying), Lewis has beaten Nico in two out of two attempts. Hamilton's bad results have come mostly as a result of bad luck and reliability issues which are out of his control, but that might also happen to Rosberg at some time. And for the love of $DEITY, there are still 18 races left and it's not like Lewis has forgotten how to be faster than his teammate! As much as I'd like Nico to win the championship, right now I'd still put my money on Lewis. Bad luck doesn't last forever, but superior ability does.

**steveaki13** · 18th April 2016, 20:37

Originally Posted by N4D13

The thread title made me think "WTF?".

Yes, Rosberg has a massive advantage, we cannot forget that, and he seems to have the momentum going into the Russian GP. However, in the only benchmark that we have to compare both drivers' performances (qualifying), Lewis has beaten Nico in two out of two attempts. Hamilton's bad results have come mostly as a result of bad luck and reliability issues which are out of his control, but that might also happen to Rosberg at some time. And for the love of $DEITY, there are still 18 races left and it's not like Lewis has forgotten how to be faster than his teammate! As much as I'd like Nico to win the championship, right now I'd still put my money on Lewis. Bad luck doesn't last forever, but superior ability does.

Only a tongue in cheek title to set up a discussion.

I think the title is definately still on given the amount of races left. However it is also a situation where Hamilton needs to beat Nico a couple of times in the next 2 or 3 races and start clawing the points back. If it goes back and forth for 5 races and is still the same gap, then it really will be tough.

Lewis has shown he is still quick. Pole in 2 of 3 races, but needs as keep away from incidents whether his fault or not. He needs good starts and no contact going forward.

Hope to see them race head to head and hopefully wheel to wheel soon.

**COD** · 19th April 2016, 11:14

I think, or at least hope that Ferrari will stirr things up. Not that either of them will necessarely fight for the championship, but they will win races and that could play to Rosberg. Given he doesn't have a string on DNF's

**Mintexmemory** · 19th April 2016, 13:28

Originally Posted by steveaki13

Lewis has shown he is still quick. Pole in 2 of 3 races, but needs as keep away from incidents whether his fault or not. He needs good starts and no contact going forward.

When the FIA / race stewards impose proper sanctions for drivers who behave like they are gaming on their expensive Italian leather sofa at home (#other lifestyles are available) then the pranging epidemic might end! How is LH supposed to be able to prevent this? Aura of invulnerability power, the Force? (back to gaming!)
This is F1, FFFFFS, it was never a contact sport like ice hockey in the past!!