First perceptions of the 2016 season

[Nitrodaze]

According to China FP2, maybe they've already gotten the mill up and running. Either that or they've found a way to sneak in some popped fuel j/k

I think the tyre pressure problems that all the teams were facing gave the illusion that Ferrari were closer in qualy. That does not seem to be the case, particularly if a Redbull can leapfrog both Ferraris to the front row of the grid. Wicked drive by Ricciado by the way.

[Rollo]

Given that Channel 10's coverage of the Chinese GP, which is only highlights anyway, begins a full 27hours after the race has been finished: I can only assume that Formula One is trying to jettison fans and sponsorship dollars.

By killing off all the people who won't or can't pay for Pay TV, the sport is left to monetise the remaining audience. Good luck with the 2020 season, where less of an audience will see races live than in 1980.


F1 and Channel 10 is rapidly turning me into an enemy of the sport.

[Stan Reid]

There will be 4 F1 races on free OTA TV here in the States this year. As for today; Bristol's on FOX.

[Starter]

There will be 4 F1 races on free OTA TV here in the States this year. As for today; Bristol's on FOX.

True, but many will be on lower tier cable packages which many people in the states have now. Still, there is no way I am getting up at 3 AM to watch the Chinese race.

[Rollo]

There is no Chinese GP in 2016 as far as I'm concerned.


F1 can jump.

[rjbetty]

Good morning all

Well I just thought it would be a good time to pop in and give some thoughts in general. I'm still keeping up with things and checking results as they come. Bear in mind I'm not as in depth as previously so I'll try to be as accurate as I can and call it as I see it. I will list a summary of the teams in the order I predict them to finish the WCC.

Mercedes
If anyone followed the Grand Prix 2 season I ran in January or so, do you remember when Jens said Hamilton suffered an unrealistic amount of unluck, allowing Rosberg to win the title, which was highly unlikely to happen in real life? Amazingly, it has happened! I don't really buy any conspiracy theories, though I still don't completely trust Toto Wolff. Hamilton has seemed despondent but even if he doesn't take the title this year, he can add to his reputation by maxing out all the things he is in control of, as that's all anyone can do. Please understand when I said previously I think Mercedes want Rosberg to win, I meant they probably think it would be nice for their other driver to get one too, and so he might get slightly more affection, which I understand and am cool enough with. Now Hamilton's won Monaco, that's thrown things open. I really have no idea which way it'll go now. At least this makes this season more interesting.

By the way, FIVE pit stops for Hamilton in China??? What were they thinking? This was surely an unnecessary cock-up every bit as absurd as Monaco 2015

Red Bull
Wow quite a comeback here. I wasn't expecting this really. Dan Ricciardo has been driver of the year so far imo, and I think is showing 2014 wasn't a fluke. In honesty I had thought in 2014 it was as much about Vettel having a bad year, which it was, and that really Dan was just a little short of the best. But now I think he is right there, and as team-mates again, I am very sure would be edging Vettel again, he's that good. He seems very despondent about last weekend, and I worry this could be the start of a bad spiral if he's not careful. I think like I said with Hamilton, Dan just needs to realise he ticked every box perfectly on his side last weekend, and that's all he can do. It was factors out of his control that cost him the race so there's no need to let it get to him, as stuff happens.

As for the driver swap, good grief that was a surprise, and Oh My Goodness what a shock win for Max! Surpassing all my expectations, and "Faaaaantastic" as Murray would say. But being logical, it was an unusual race and on a normal day, he should have been a still superb 4th. And then in Monaco he crashed more than once, so we should keep feet to the ground for now as Max still has plenty of learning to do. I'm not sure RBR threw Dan's race to help Max, but I wouldn't be surprised, as I've seen enough over the years not to be. I think it was just a mistake this time.

Ricciardo is doing so well, that Kvyat basically self-destructed trying to keep up. I do think the reason Max had his crashes was for the same reason, so caution should be advised.

I also must say I'm very disappointed about the Verstappen promotion only because it has removed one of the most intriguing aspects of the season for me - I wanted to see what he could have done in that Toro Rosso. Seeing how many points he could have collected and how close could he have got to a Vettel 2008 season was of great interest to me - but that's gone now. Oh well.

Ferrari
Err... well this isn't really going to plan isn't it? Nice to see Kimi getting plenty of podiums, though he lacks that bit extra these days. I hope he can win one more race soon as it will be very popular and could maybe do him the world of good after heavy beatings these last few seasons.

Seb is still driving very well, but surprisingly, looking into it, his season is proving every bit as unfortunate as Hamilton's! A strategy cock up (though not of Mercedes proportions since that would be hard to top) in Melbourne chucking away a perfectly good win, a non-start(!) in Bahrain, collision in China (was probably his fault but very easily done in a tricky situation), torpedoed in Russia, another strategy goof in Spain, and Ferrari not being on the pace of Force India in Monaco! Despite all this though, I still feel he is maybe driving not quite at his absolute best, as the situation could be getting to him a little. I think this is a weakness of Seb's: When all goes to plan and he is provided with what he needs, he will deliver, as those titles prove. Stick in a curve ball, some adversity, and he's maybe less convincing. Do you agree?

(I don't think an overbearing Ferrari president with unreasonable demands helps very much though - we've all had a boss like that eh?!)

[b]Williams[b]
Oh well it was going to happen sometime I guess. Top 4 positions in 2014 gave way to top 6's in 2015 - now it's top 8-10. With McLaren and Renault looking to improve, it may only get worse. Things haven't looked good for Bottas. However, looking closer, he has outqualified baby Felipe in the last 5 races, so although not showing in points, there may be some sort of hope still left for Bottas. We'll see.

Force India
Finally getting somewhere on the scoreboard now. Another podium for Perez - how does he do it? The guy just has such a sense of occasion, and always seems to make it count. He has also outqualified Hulk 4-2 this season - very impressive. I'm disappointed for Hulk and hope it works out for him one day so he can finally get a podium of his own, he deserves it. Otherwise I expect same old from this team.

Toro Rosso
With Max Verstappen onboard, I would have fancied this team's chances of 5th in the WCC. Now he's gone, that's out of the window a bit. I like Sainz but am also not fussed on him in some ways. I think Verstappen would have fairly creamed him tbh, and that last year was only close as Max was so tender at only 17. I worry about Daniil Kvyat. There's no way that demotion won't have an effect - it would affect anyone since that is a serious blow. Makes me wonder why they can't just have waited till the end of the season. Now Red Bull look like they're ruining another promising young driver's career.

With Kvyat, it seems that he's not really your stereotypical Ivan-Drago-like machine, but rather, even though he's older than some, he's still kinda a kid really and could do with some mentoring. I'm actually thinking of seeing if I can send him a message on twitter (if I can figure out how to work it) just to remind him that Romain Grosjean had a rough time in 2009, then was dumped by Renault (and leave Daniil with the implication that *hint hint* - it ain't all over!!)


Well that's enough for now, I'll try and do the rest soon.


P.S. I really couldn't give a hoot about tyre pressures and the like lol.

[dj_bytedisaster]

Hm... Some things we can agree on, which doesn't happen with the two of us much

Mercedes

Well, if anything, the team order proves pretty much what they think of Nico's chances to win the title. It wouldn't make sense for them actually, as Rosberg would just get more expensive to retain or (even worse) could take the #1 to another team should he chose to run it. I still think they wouldn't have dared making such a request of Lewis, whom from a business point of view everyone at Merc would want to win.

Red Bull

I agree that RIC has been the driver of the year so far, but I cannot think much of the way he talks when things go wrong. It sort of brings up memories of Alonso at his worst. Slamming the team in public is still considered one of the cardinal sins. It might not be good for his career to have an image of publically pilloring the team, especially now as he finds out why Seb ran into so many "unfortunate situations" in 2014. Marko has found a new golden boy and Danny will certainly know what that means.

Verstappen. I'm undecided. I admire his driving, at least on days when he remembers that the transparent bit of the helmet goes to the front. But he is definitely starting to show that he puts himself under way too much pressure. And he had more petulant radio moments than Vettel, and that's quite an achievement.

Fezza

Oh dear. What can you say, They've been a monumental clusterf*** so far.

I'm not sure I agree with all your points on Vettel, but then you certainly expected that No driver drives at his best in a car that's going backwards. The biggest problem here is the outside influence. One thing that was almost overlooked during the four years of Red Bull was that Vettel was lobbying for signing Kimi and get rid of Webber. And that was at a time when Kimi was still winning races.

The reason for that is simple. Vettel is like an indicator for the atmosphere in the team. Last year at Ferrari there was a very good atmosphere, and he really likes Arrivabene. Also Seb and Kimi are the first proper friends as team mates since Senna and Berger. But now Marchione starts to undermine the atmosphere with his incessant pressure. Arrivabene is being questioned, Kimi too. His real weakness is his need for harmony in the team, something you arenb't afforded in the shark tank that is F1.

Williams

Massa is past it and Bottas seems to be going nowhere. That chassis must be ridiculously bad if you manage to end up 8th and 10th with the still best-by-a-good-margin engine.

Force India

Agree on Checo, he's definitely much improved and I think it may have to do with the characteristics of this year's car, because the simultaneous drop in Hulks performance looks a bit too coincidental. He also seems to be one lucky bugger, because the Monaco result was flattering him a bit.

With all eyes on the monumental blunder by Red Bull, it is almost overlooked that, while not as obvious as with RIC, Hulk was equally shafted by his team. He was called in way too early (seven laps before Checo) when the full wets were still going well. Subsequently he was released into traffic behind the Massa train. He can't really buy much from Fernleys apology after the race as he still waits for his first podium, something he should have easily scored here, considering how well he had qualified.

Toro Rosso

Verstappens promotion looked harsh, but it had been planned way before Sochi. It was also the correct decision from a business point of view. They have invested a lot of money in Verstappen, so the last thing they needed was watching him walk off to Mercedes or Ferrari. A promotion to the A team was the way to go. Marko just handled it in his usual arrogant style and they could have been less hard on Kvyat, but then that's how things have always been at RB. Once you fall out of favour or are no longer of use for them, they'll just drop you. Everyone who signs up to the Red Bull Junior Program knows that.

[jens]

Welcome back, rj.

Have also been watching less this year, though watched the last 2 races. Still following general trends.

Perceptions, perceptions. So mine...

Mercedes - still dominant, as expected. Rosberg may have been fortunate. Still 7 wins on the trot - unbelievable. But Monaco race proved well that his WDC lead is on shaky grounds and it is only matter of time before Hamilton puts in his string of wins. Hopefully a close WDC fight this year.

Ferrari - unreliability and strategy calls have been holding them back. Pure car speed is perhaps about where it was last year - in comparison to Merc. The problem is that some of the rivals (like RBR) have improved and made Ferrari's life as second best team difficult... Räikkönen a bit better than last year, but I suspect this is temporary form like Webber in early 2012. He'd still get a beating by Vettel by the end of the year.

Red Bull - The difference is that Renault PU has improved, so that RBR chassis excellence shines through, and hence have moved up in pecking order. Red Bull may have said harsh words on Renault last year, but they had a point. RBR also acted harsh on Kvyat, but again - they had a point. Team management, who takes no prisoners... but they are super competitive! By the way, awesome driver line-up in Ricciardo & Verstappen. Both in my book potential WDC challengers in the future.

Last rumour is that we could see engine performances getting trimmed closer in the next years (2017, 2018). Combined this with Red Bull's ability to design fantastic chassis... and finally there is a glimmer of hope in F1... hope that someone might challenge Mercedes in F1... But possibly next year, and not 2016

TBC...

[jens]

Williams - With PU performances getting closer on the grid, Williams has lost its shine, because in 2014 they certainly shone above RBR and Ferrari due to huge PU superiority. Solid upper midfield team with two solid - if unspectacular - drivers. Bottas - like Hülkenberg - has lost his image as a future star.

Force India - Probably going to bank their P5 in Constructors again. Pérez has impressed me. In Sauber and also McLaren he was quite inconsistent and error-prone, but now seems like a better race driver than Hülkenberg. Though he got more fortunate than Hulk with strategy at Monaco... still delivered.

STR - James Key again has delivered a brilliant chassis, but the loss of Max and also old outdated Ferrari engines could see them struggling to score well later in the season. Sainz is good, but I get the impression that while he is good in qualis, he is not that impressive in races.

McLaren - They won't get any mercy from me, still their usual rubbish self. Honda PU is obviously better and crucially more reliable than last year, but still the worst. McLaren chassis is decidedly average. They have great drivers though, and as we see, occasionally Alonso wrings great results out of the car, but that's all they can do.

Haas - they have pretty much replaced Sauber in the pecking order. An inspired career move by Grosjean and TBH Gutiérrez isn't far behind him, just has suffered lots of unluck. Surprise of the season still.

Renault - clearly an interim season, like 2015 was for McLaren, though for different reasons. I hope they have now proper finances, can hire a great design team after the exodus of 2013, and... hire a proper driver in place of Palmer. Perhaps the future could look decent in 2017 and beyond.

EDIT: I remember rjbetty once wrote that he predicts McLaren to finish in top3 every year, because one day it must be true. Well, I guess I am going to do the same with Renault - have more belief in them. But I certainly won't predict it for 2017 yet!

Sauber - Lack of money, paydrivers... they perform, where you'd have expected Haas to perform. So yeah, these teams have swapped places.

MRT - with better finances and a top-notch engine finally look like competitive addition to the F1 field. Wehrlein has at times mixed it Saubers and Renaults in races... Haryanto obviously the paydriver, but someone has to bring up the rear too...

[rjbetty]

Right, I'll finish this off then.

Thanks for the great replies dj and Jens, I have some thoughts to add which I will do next.

McLaren-Honda
Oh well, they've almost matched last year's points tally already, but overall slightly short of where I'd hoped. It's great to see they've definitely made an improvement, and 6 points finishes out of 12 ain't too bad.

I still think McLaren can be 4h best team by season's end though Force India might have something to say, but are too far behind Williams to overhaul them now. Still it will be good to see how many points they can get.

Toro Rosso
I don't really care much now Max is gone. I hope Kvyat can get his head in gear but it's not looking good right now.

Renault
If Magnussen can consistently score points in the second half, they may overhaul Haas, especially with that upgrade. But I never rated Palmer; I'm not sure about his attitude either but I hope he can get a good result somewhere.

Haas
Well it loos like they've had their bonanza for the season and have settled into their natural place of 8th-9th best team. Still a great achievement. Overall I agree with Jens and Haas' season looks to be mirroring Sauber's 2015. I'm surprised at how close Gutierrez has been to Grosjean in qualifying and he should get some points eventually.

Sauber
Oh dear. Only surprise is Ericsson handily beating Nasr. I'm not sure what's happened here. I'm assuming Ericsson is getting the better treatment as I'd expected Nasr to pull clear, but some have always insisted Ericsson was always better than he'd shown thus far, and he may have just stepped up another gear, which would show how undeveloped the car is. Wouldn't be too surprised if Nasr was replaced at some point.

Manor
Well, still bringing up the rear, but great to see them getting involved. It looks like they perform better on low downforce tracks, which means Canada may be their best chance of a points finish. I so hope they can make the most of it. I'm concerned with how close Haryanto is to Wehrlein, which suggests Haryanto isn't that bad, but maybe Wehrlein isn't the next megastar yet, though I hope he can pull clear later in the season.