First perceptions of the 2016 season

[Nitrodaze]

The cars are louder and fastest hybrid yet. Hamilton at Bahrain beat the fastest lap time set by the old three litre V12 engine. Which demonstrates how incredibly brilliant the hybrid engine technology is.

Ferrari are closer to Mercedes, close enough to punish them more severely when they [Mercedes] make a mistake. That said, the Ferrari is hampered by reliability issues which sort of dampens the extent by which Ferrari could capitalize on the Mercedes off moments. Talking about Ferrari, Kimi has noticeably upped his game and is a closer threat to Vettel in the other Ferrari.

Rosberg has carried over his advantage of adapting better to the evolution of the W06 from the last three races of 2015 into 2016, with Hamilton looking more ill at ease with the new Mercedes clutch. However, Rosberg has won two easy races with no real challenges from Hamilton or Vettel. We will see how he fairs in China, if Hamilton and Vettel can sort out their car gremlins and take the fight to Rosberg. If Rosberg can win the next two races, you have to say he is looking good at lifting the driver's title this year. Hamilton seem to be still recovering from achieving 3 driver's title, Rosberg has to capitalize on this moment without mistakes to have a foot firmly ahead.

We are clearly set for a great season of racing with Ferrari so close to the Mercedes and Hamilton down by 17 points to a strong Rosberg charge forward with two wins.

The Haas team has turned up in the midfield and given the typical leading teams in the midfield bloody noses as they perform significantly better than would otherwise have been expected. Some say the help from Ferrari was more significant than was expected, others question the rules. Whatever the case, Haas is over the moon with such a great start. And what seemed like a daft idea of Grosjean moving from a potential Renault team to a new entrant to f1, has become a fairytale that has propelled Grosjean into the limelight, the American Dream as he put it. We would see if they can keep up with the rate of development of the other midfield teams as the year progresses.

Two of the leading midfield teams that has suffered bloody noses from the Haas success are Williams and Force India. While the qualifying pace of the Williams was great, its race pace was questionable. They are still weak in the race strategy department which has prevented them form retaining their great track positions at the start of the race in Bahrain. And has seen their cars drift backwards during the race. Most notably, both cars were overtaken by the Haas car to 5th position in Bahrain. The Redbull seem poised to snatch 3rd position in the constructors championship from Williams. The Force India was just simply off their game as its owner answers financial malpractice questions from authorities in India. Distracted it would seem.

Toro Rosso was surprisingly disappointing as they fail to capitalize on their perceived advantage of having the 2015 engine. 6th in Bahrain was good for Verstapenn, but not having both cars in the point is failing yo maximize the opportunity. The 2016 Renault engine in the Redbull chassis has turned out to be a better combination than anticipated. And promises to be more competitive as the season progresses. Which implies that Torro Rosso may not beat its sister team by mid-season as many anticipated.

Radio silence during the race was abit eerie for couch spectators watching the race on TV. That train of information that gave us an idea of what was going on with the car and the team strategy is no longer available. The bright side is the drivers are no longer muppets. And now have to manage their race on their own. It was obvious some drivers were struggling to cope with this. Most noteable was the Verstapenn frustration as he begged for team orders to allow him to pass his team mate which in my opinion was not in the spirit of the new change. He should make the pass on his own without the help of the team.

It would seem the grid is no longer three tiered but two tiered. The so called midfield has disappeared. We now have the race and the sharp end. The Sharp end consisting of the Mercedes and the Ferrari's. The race consisting of the rest of the teams in a much closer bunch of cars with varying advantages based on tyre strategies. Teams in this group get punished twofold when they don't get their act together; firstly, the knockout qualy punishes them fiercely if they are poor in their car preparation by qualy time. Secondly, if they make a poor race strategy. Track position is golden in this part of the grid as well as making the right tyre choices at the right portion of the race. Haas has benefited greatly from this aspect of the racing.

We have seen some great new rookies to the sport. Werhlein has really put the Manor firmly in the mix of the midfield. The Mercedes engine in the Manor has effectively removed the so called back marker tier of the grid. Having a chance to see Vandoorne in action has given us a tantalizing glimpse of what is to come in 2017 or 2018. Vandoorne finishing in the points at Bahrain, suggest that the Mclaren-Honda has stepped forward markedly. With a more experienced Alonso or Button at the helm, the Mclaren-Honda may well have finished higher. It would be exciting to see an Alonso - Vandoorne pairing. It would be Alonso - Hamilton over again. Ofcourse it would depend on whether Vandoorne is as good as Hamilton was when he was paired with a much younger and hungrier Alonso; in comparison.

Redbull seem to be on course to close the gap to Ferrari, if the rate of engine development at Renault continues. Ferrari having the Redbulls on their tailcoat may be distracted them from taking the fight to Mercedes. Besides the Ferrari seems weak in reliability and may be vulnerable to a Redbull onslaught.

Magnussen has had a poor start to the season. He does not seem to be grasping his opportunity in a Renault car with both hands. Palmer has out performed him in the last two races, which really shows what a racer Palmer is.

Back to 2015 Qualy format for China; hooray :-)

[Tazio]

making the right tyre choices at the right portion of the race. Haas has benefited greatly from this aspect of the racing.

I'm wondering if this gal is behind that aggressive tyre call for RoGro in Bahrain

[zako85]

Perhaps the racing will not be as dull as last season because of new tire compounds that did make strategies more interesting.

[Storm]

Mercedes cannot be caught by Ferrari unless they increase reliability along with performance. That's going to be nigh on impossible right away.

Ham v Ros might be interesting for a few races until Hamilton can get his sh*t together.

Qualifying was horrible, so switching back was inevitable.
Some of the new cars and liveries look good on telly.

[airshifter]

A good overall analysis Nitrodaze. I'm in agreement with much of it.

I think there is potential for the Ferrari's to break up the boredom of the Mercedes dominance. Though I wish no ill will on Mercedes I'd love to see both Ferrari's make it to the podium (in the same race) in at least one race this year. And I think there is at least a chance of that. I suspect Merc will still come out well on top, but hope it's closer.

I've always liked Kimi, and I think Seb will still get the best of him, but it's good to see Kimi up the game again.

Hass. What is there to say? Above and beyond any expectations for a new team. I expected them to be good and predicted points finishes, but didn't think they would happen in both of the races, nor so early in the season. Outstanding effort.

I picked Vandoorne for my FGP team, even though he isn't reserve for the drivers I have, just to acknowledge him and his talent. And though I didn't get the point he scored for my FGP score, he scored it in his first race! And first weekend in the car. I wonder how many others have done that? I see multiple offers for him, put him in the mix of "silly season" now.

Nico vs Lewis should be interesting. I think Lewis always used the pit radio info better, but now with that changed it might hurt his driving some. Combine that with Nico not only doing well in qually but the races and things could change this year. I hope it still results in a good fight and clean driving.

[Tazio]

With The Boss taking a 5 place grid drop, it looks like Nico should extend his lead in the WDC. It will be interesting watching LH fight his way towards the front!

[Stan Reid]

Yes, Haas, to be a broken record. It will now be a disappointment if they don't sneak on to the podium at least once. And Manor, although still in the bottom tier, does look like they actually belong in F1 now.

[rjbetty]

Hi everyone. I haven't watched the season but did read up on the first two races. Here are my thoughts (bear in mind they might not be accurate as I haven't been studying in depth or anything!

The Season
Wow! As hoped the grid does look to have bunched up a fair bit, resulting in more interesting possibilities. Yeah Mercedes should win most races with Ferrari some as well, but further behind it looks great!

I didn't know anything about this qualifying so I can't say much, but glad it's sorted as people didn't seem happy.

I'm extremely disappointed the token system has been scrapped altogether. I know it was too restrictive but it's been there for over 10 years for a reason. Has F1 so soon forgotten about the bad old days of the early/mid 2000s? A much more open token system might have been preferable, where there is some freedom to develop in-season. But now, by throwing out the baby with the bathwater altogether, there is a risk of teams spending into oblivion, a consequence that has ruined many a great racing series in the past. D'OH!

As for the future, I'm hearing downforce will be increased. I think this is a huge mistake. I'm sure even I can see that LESS, not more, downforce creates better racing; increased braking zones, more difficult cars which lead to mistakes and actually challenge the best drivers in the world! I mean, check out the rain races where GRIP is reduced. They tend to be the most exciting and the best for on track action. Now cars will be more on rails than ever.


Mercedes
Their best ever points haul after the opening 2 races mask the fact that things look closer this year, and Rosberg's the one in the lead. I do think Mercedes want Nico to have a title this year so both drivers can be strong and happy, and for the PR, so it's his turn this time I think.
Predicted WCC Standing at Season's end - 1st

Ferrari
Well it's looking well poised except for reliability, but Seb should be right in the mix for a super 3-way fight. Je may have a slower car, but none is better at optimising every point and opportunity as Vettel. Hopefully if the car is really that good, Kimi can claim at least one swansong win.
WCC Prediction - 2nd

Red Bull - Tag Heuer
A bit of a surprise that they seem a clear 3rd, reading between the lines. Looks like the Renault engine has come on some way after all, after predictions RBR would suffer further this year. Adrian Newey has often been pessimistic pre-season (remember 2013?!) - I don't know if he's being prudent or deliberatley misleading. I notice they have a new paint job this year, which is nice.
WCC Prediction - 3rd

Williams - Mercedes
A great disappointment. As for Bottas, he simply must assert himself over Massa this year or he will officially join Nico Hulkenberg in nearly-man-land - it doesn't look great so far but hopefully he can turn up the performance.
WCC Prediction - 4th

Haas - Ferrari
Wow! 18pts in their first two races, who would have thought it? This has surpassed my expectations even though secretly I was increasingly quietly optimistic as time went on over last year and this. In my Grand Prix 2 season I set the performance for Grosjean to have three Q3 appearances over the season but it didn't turn out that way, and it looks like he will do rather better than that. I said more than once that teams who take an extra year to prepare tend to be respectable (think Stewart, Toyota, even Sauber), but I worry about second-season-syndrome (those same 3 teams didn't really progress as expected in their second seasons). I think Gutierrez, though no world-beater, is underrated.
WCC Prediction - 8th

Toro Rosso - Ferrari
Great to see the young drivers coming on and getting quicker and more in the mix. I wonder if they will drop off over the year, though I expect Max will counter that by improving himself. I think he will relatively cream Sainz, and it would be fantastic if he really can have a Vettel 2008 sort of season, with lots of points and a place in the top 10 at season's end. I wonder if he can get a podium somewhere.
WCC Prediction - 7th

Force India - Mercedses
As expected, in the midfield. I wonder if Hulkenberg leaves for Le Mans, and maybe Kvyat can take his place?
WCC Prediction - 6th

McLaren - Honda
One point and one 14th place; on the face of it things still look rubbish. Reading between the lines however, I believe that is a great chassis there, and they are going to make a real challenge for 4th in the WCC imo. I think RBR are maybe too far ahead, which was unexpected. Great to see Vandoorne get a chance. That will be a huge help in getting a full drive (stick him in a Manor!)
WCC Prediction - 5th

Renault
Better than expected, just like Red Bull - now what is the common link there? Palmer has surprised me! I have noticed that historically, a driver even if very experienced, if they are new to a team, will initially struggle more than an incumbent (even if the incumbent is a rookie like Palmer), before the more experienced driver asserts himself over the season (think Williams & Sauber 2014 for example, and their drivers)
WCC Prediction - 9th

Sauber-Ferrari
Oh dear. Reading between the lines, they actually don't look that far off the pace, maybe even slightly quicker than last year. Trouble is, everyone else has moved forward.
WCC Prediction - 10th

Manor - Mercedes
Look to be about where I hoped, about 2.5-3sec off the pace for the lead car. That should be points territory. Very exciting to see them able to fight after all they've been through. I'm happy to see I correctly guessed the driver line up in my simulation!
WCC Prediction - 11th


Well those are my thoughts. I may or may not pop up again sometime. I don't know how closely I want to follow things right now (this is similar to where I was at during 2007 before stopping watching altogether for a few years at the end of that season)

[Nitrodaze]

@rjbetty, l hope you can find a way to watch one race this year. All the silly stuff is off the track. On track, this is turning out to be a cracking season. The main downer is Ferrari are unable to turn their engine up to full wack due to reliability concerns, which would have definitely put them right in Mercedes face. The midfield for; lack of a better word, is crazily exciting. That is where the real racing is happening.
What l would say is, if you only want to watch one race this year, Canada would be the one. Ferrari are due to introduce an upgraded engine which is earmarked to be on par with the Mercedes engine. If this is the case and they have managed to get on top of their reliability woes, this race is likely to be a cracking race at the front. With Ferrari actually taking the fight to Mercedes rather than pretending to be.

[Stan Reid]

Ferrari are due to introduce an upgraded engine which is earmarked to be on par with the Mercedes engine. If this is the case and they have managed to get on top of their reliability woes, this race is likely to be a cracking race at the front. With Ferrari actually taking the fight to Mercedes rather than pretending to be.

According to China FP2, maybe they've already gotten the mill up and running. Either that or they've found a way to sneak in some popped fuel j/k