Next new World Drivers Champion?

[jens]

I'll give Bottas my vote, but it's worth considering this: after Mika Hakkinen won the 1998 World Championship, to correctly guess the identity of the next new champion you'd have had to nominate a Spanish karting driver who'd just had his first car racing test...

Well, that's a good point. Sometimes in F1 there seems to be an established power structure, which is hard to break, i.e right now it is hard to look past Hamilton/Vettel as main title challengers in the next few years. But a new star can rise very quickly and suddenly (like rj's mentioned 3-year-logic). Basically that's how Max Verstappen has come to the scene - 2 years ago he was still in karts and not many knew him!

Or consider this. Merc' junior Pascal Wehrlein isn't even in F1 yet, but imagine he does a splendid job in Manor next year, and gets promoted to the Merc main team in 2017 to replace Rosberg. He then proceeds to challenge Hamilton for WDC in 2017. To be honest, I wouldn't bet on this happening right now, but that's how a super-talented driver (we don't know yet, how talented Wehrlein is by F1 standards though!) can easily burst to the scene.

[jens]

Do you agree with this? I find it a handy guide as it seems everyone who does manage to "stake their claim to the title within 3 years" is able to go on to a top career, while almost all who don't do end up not quite making it.

I find it very interesting, though some drivers like Mansell or Häkkinen are clear exceptions. Well, in Häkkinen's case for sure we know McLaren wasn't performing well enough for a title challenge for years.

What this 3-year-logic shows though is that top teams often identify top talents quickly. And it doesn't take long before they are snapped up. Räikkönen was hired by McLaren after a single season in F1, Williams hired Montoya straightaway, same with Hamilton by McLaren, M. Schumacher was signed by Benetton after a single (!) race.

However, the exception is that even if you are very talented and valued by teams, you can easily get stuck in wrong cars. Jean Alesi could have been a title contender in his third (second full) season on F1, in 1991 - and perhaps even more so in 1992. But he chose to go to Ferrari...

[Nitrodaze]

I think Rosberg has Massa syndrome now. Will he go elsewhere as I can't see him beating LH in a Merc under circumstances where the car is competitive. So where would a number 1 spot be for him - Maybe RedBull or Williams, but then they'd have to be better than at present and it's still a fight against LH and SV. So nope his time has gone with these past 2 seasons. Ricciardo is the one my money is on, but he may have to wait for 6-7 years as I don't see past either Hamilton or Vettel having a private race to equal Schuey!

I wouldn't write off Rosberg yet. Lets us look at Rosbergs off-track 2015 year to date. He got married, then started the year with a pregnant wife and just over half season became a dad. And he is competing with a single jet setting guy at the top of his game. I put the difference between 2014 Nico and 2015 Nico down to the unavoidable distraction of home life. The changes to lifestyle of getting into a marriage and properly sharing your life with someone else has a small impact on the preparations to take on a world champion. Adding the 9 months period of supporting a pregnant wife, the expectations and anticipation of the arrival of the baby. All of that are bound to have an impact of time loss and slight drop of racing adge. Not to mention the sleepless nights.

I think things are going to settle into a pattern for Nico in 2016, then he can focus on his racing with more conviction and give Hamilton a run for his money again. The main thing about 2016 for Nico is that he has nothing to lose but all to gain hence the challenge shall be on Hamilton to maintain his high level of performance and not lose focus for a minute.

Rosberg's real chance is in 2017 when the main regulations changes kick in. He has to make the most of it and build an early advantage if Lewis struggles to get on top of the changes within the first three races. He has to believe in himself, he was a GP2 world champion, hence he knows how to win world championships. That said, he is going against one of the best F1 drivers in recent era of F1, he has to really invest himself into the 2016 season to have a chance. He already has half a chance in having the same machinery as Hamilton.

[jens]

Well, Nitrodaze. Interesting points of view. Though now I would be interested in statistics, whether we have got a historic pattern of drivers slowing down in such cases. I.e Mick Schumacher was born in 1999, but I don't remember Michael slowing down at that time. Though we have the famous Enzo Ferrari quote that if a driver became father, he'd become 1s p/lap slower.

[Nitrodaze]

I remember F1 Rejects used to say, before they were shut down, that as a rule of thumb, a driver needs to stake their claim to the title within 3 years (of joining F1) to really hit the big time. When I think of this, it's a pretty good guide.

Applying this rough rule to the current drivers it's quite accurate.



Crucially, Bottas is coming to the end of this time now, and he hasn't really made enough of a mark. Look at it this way, I feel the current Williams is comparable to the Renaults of 2003 and 2004 in performance, but Alonso was able to make more of a mark and won a race within 3 years of his F1 career. I would bet that had Alonso started his career in 2013 with Williams instead of Bottas he could have grabbed a win somewhere.

Do you agree with this? I find it a handy guide as it seems everyone who does manage to "stake their claim to the title within 3 years" is able to go on to a top career, while almost all who don't do end up not quite making it.

I think there are two categories of world champions, the early achievers that become the very best in the game, the Schumacher's, Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel. And the late achievers like Hakkinen, button etc. Mika Hakkinen won it twice to show you don't have to hit the big time before the three year mark to make it into the big time.

To win the world championship, every key things need to come together at the same time. Have access to a championship winning car, have abit of luck and be in the zone [be at ones performance peak window] . If any of these thing happen to be out of sync with the others, then chances are the driver would miss the boat.

Hence l think Rosberg, Ricciado, Bottas, the HULK, Perez, Sainz, Verstapenn are the obvious group that can possibly win a drivers world championship, given a championship winning car at the right moment, which l believe to be still in the future for this group. The interesting thing about this group is that, pairing of drivers within this group at that optimum moment, would most likely ruin the opportunity for one of them, this is part of the luck thing, to also be lucky to be paired with a weaker driver and better drivers to have slower uncompetitive cars or having costly bad luck in that season. Having the luck of good reliability throughout the season is another. No accidents, good health and no unavoidable distractions.
That's how Button and Raikonen won it. Mclaren's poor reliability handed the 2007 title to Raikonen in the Ferrari by a one sole point from Hamilton and Alonso who were both tied at 109 points to Kimi's 110. A year Hamilton was robbed of the title by a gearbox failure hence did not finish that race, a saving grace for Alonso. Alonso in the lacklustre Ferrari and Hamilton in a woefull Maclaren paved the way for Button in 2009.

Anything is possible in F1.