Preview of F1 2016

[zako85]

Predictably another boring season. When did F1 have a genuinely interesting season the last time? 2012? It has been a long time now. Not again please. Mercedes should fire Hamilton and Rosberg, then hire Bruno Senna and Esteban Gutierrez. That would level out the field a little bit.

[Nitrodaze]

Predictably another boring season. When did F1 have a genuinely interesting season the last time? 2012? It has been a long time now. Not again please. Mercedes should fire Hamilton and Rosberg, then hire Bruno Senna and Esteban Gutierrez. That would level out the field a little bit.

I am tempted to risk a guess, but l think l would rather wait for the first rounds of testing before l comment. However, l think Jens captured the current imagination of things to come very well. I would at least say that l expect some unexpected surprises to occur. I believe underrated Honda may turn up with a few surprises; l hope great surprise for Mclaren's sake. And, l suspect that Torro Rosso would consistently be ahead of the Redbull in most races in 2016. I also suspect that the Renault team may not drift as far back as one would think. Particularly since the chassis is already at the top end of the midfield. I think other surprises may come from the Haas team doing a better job than expected for a new entrant to F1.
I also would venture to say that the Williams may have real competition for 3rd place in 2016, particularly if their operational issues are not thoroughly resolved.
Of interest is whether Ferrari can make another step closer to Mercedes. There was a clear step forward mid season of 2015, does the engine have capacity for another step forward over the winter break? The true outlook of 2016 would be evident at the 1st pre-season test. If we are not seeing the Ferrari within 0.200 sec of the Mercedes best times, then we can resolve ourselves to another uncontested constructor and driver championships.

[jens]

Predictably another boring season. When did F1 have a genuinely interesting season the last time? 2012? It has been a long time now. Not again please. Mercedes should fire Hamilton and Rosberg, then hire Bruno Senna and Esteban Gutierrez. That would level out the field a little bit.

Yeah, 2012 can be considered as the last exciting season.

Actually, looking back it seems amazing that in the time period of 2005-2010 we always had multiple teams competing for the championship. Retrospectively it looks like some kind of a minor golden era.

As for 2016, not looking good I have to say. I do think there are lots of things open in the midfield, but I guess that's not a great consolation, because midfield is always tight. It is the front of the field that excites people and it is not looking as good.

[jens]

I also suspect that the Renault team may not drift as far back as one would think. Particularly since the chassis is already at the top end of the midfield.

Actually IMHO the Lotus/Renault chassis has been really underwhelming. Remember that McLaren got flak in 2014 for getting beaten by Williams with the same PU. Well, Lotus was the worst of the Merc' teams, and despite by far the best PU was only average and could barely beat the Toro Rosso.

I may be more optimistic about Renault PU, but even if they improve, it is not going to be on level with Mercedes. And if anything, Red Bull is likely to gain more from any improvement, because they are likely to have an inherently decent chassis.

As for PU integration. Sure enough, Renault will now be a factory team. BUT this also takes time, before the co-operation between Viry (Renault) and Enstone (chassis) factories has gelled.

Anyway... I see that it is only in 2017, when we could start discussing something about the Renault team. Before that Renault needs to pump in lots of money to (again) improve the quality of chassis design in the Enstone factory; they will have had a bit of time to make the "works team co-operation advantage" count for something; and perhaps they will also hire proper drivers for 2017 provided they have the money.

[Nitrodaze]

Actually IMHO the Lotus/Renault chassis has been really underwhelming. Remember that McLaren got flak in 2014 for getting beaten by Williams with the same PU. Well, Lotus was the worst of the Merc' teams, and despite by far the best PU was only average and could barely beat the Toro Rosso.

I may be more optimistic about Renault PU, but even if they improve, it is not going to be on level with Mercedes. And if anything, Red Bull is likely to gain more from any improvement, because they are likely to have an inherently decent chassis.

As for PU integration. Sure enough, Renault will now be a factory team. BUT this also takes time, before the co-operation between Viry (Renault) and Enstone (chassis) factories has gelled.

Anyway... I see that it is only in 2017, when we could start discussing something about the Renault team. Before that Renault needs to pump in lots of money to (again) improve the quality of chassis design in the Enstone factory; they will have had a bit of time to make the "works team co-operation advantage" count for something; and perhaps they will also hire proper drivers for 2017 provided they have the money.

I would normally agree with you due to my regard for your usually very well thought through comments. But you neglect to factor in the financial hardship that the Lotus team endured this season. They were locked out of their garages at most races this season. Then there were those unusually high levels of driver errors this year that cost Lotus loads of possible points. Considering Maldonado alone, he was responsible for a large quantity of potential points for the team. Hence on paper, your argument would be sound, but under closer scrutiny and analysis, one would find the problem was not due to deficiency of performance of the car but other factors; financial or other, which has caused the Lotus team from realizing their true potential.

You have to remember that Grojean managed to put the Lotus on the podium this year, which l assure you was no easy feat, in the face of the mights of Ferrari and Williams.

[zako85]

Actually IMHO the Lotus/Renault chassis has been really underwhelming. Remember that McLaren got flak in 2014 for getting beaten by Williams with the same PU. Well, Lotus was the worst of the Merc' teams, and despite by far the best PU was only average and could barely beat the Toro Rosso.

After 2013 season, Lotus has been in a lot of debt and on the brink of bankruptcy. That should tell you a lot.

[jens]

I would normally agree with you due to my regard for your usually very well thought through comments. But you neglect to factor in the financial hardship that the Lotus team endured this season. They were locked out of their garages at most races this season. Then there were those unusually high levels of driver errors this year that cost Lotus loads of possible points. Considering Maldonado alone, he was responsible for a large quantity of potential points for the team. Hence on paper, your argument would be sound, but under closer scrutiny and analysis, one would find the problem was not due to deficiency of performance of the car but other factors; financial or other, which has caused the Lotus team from realizing their true potential.

You have to remember that Grojean managed to put the Lotus on the podium this year, which l assure you was no easy feat, in the face of the mights of Ferrari and Williams.

There is a point in claims that Lotus chassis was better than appears in pure results sheet. However, considering, how well the Force India was going late in the season, I can't rate it above the FI. Also Lotus' development pace dropped off late in the year.

The issue with finances (or lack of them), is that they influence next year as well. Because 2016 car is largely developed during 2015. Financial hardship of 2015 means a bad car in 2016 - at best they can rectify it slightly with in-season development.

One of the best examples for this is the Brawn GP & Mercedes example. Brawn GP was a cash-strapped team in 2009, yet had a great car, because their car was developed during 2008, when Honda had lots of money. On the flipside the 2009 financial hardships meant that despite Mercedes' takeover the car was no match to RB/Ferrari/McLaren in 2010.

[Nitrodaze]

There is a point in claims that Lotus chassis was better than appears in pure results sheet. However, considering, how well the Force India was going late in the season, I can't rate it above the FI. Also Lotus' development pace dropped off late in the year.

The issue with finances (or lack of them), is that they influence next year as well. Because 2016 car is largely developed during 2015. Financial hardship of 2015 means a bad car in 2016 - at best they can rectify it slightly with in-season development.

One of the best examples for this is the Brawn GP & Mercedes example. Brawn GP was a cash-strapped team in 2009, yet had a great car, because their car was developed during 2008, when Honda had lots of money. On the flipside the 2009 financial hardships meant that despite Mercedes' takeover the car was no match to RB/Ferrari/McLaren in 2010.

I see your point. But you still neglect to factor in the level of rule changes that the Brawn had to face back then was much less than Renault would have to deal with on the chassis front in 2016. The main concern for the Renault team is around engine performance and operational efficiency. On paper, they have a good foundation to build from. Don't get me wrong, it is not going to be smooth sailing for them. Afterall, 2016 is a honeymoon year for the new team.

[jens]

I completed my annual pre-season prediction, without any testing guidelines.

Stayed up half a night to complete all races, so that's pretty crazy, but it was exciting as well.

F1 of 2016 looks like following.

1. Lewis Hamilton GBR Mercedes 373
2. Nico Rosberg GER Mercedes 315
3. Sebastian Vettel GER Ferrari 304
4. Daniel Ricciardo AUS Red Bull Tag Heuer 178
5. Kimi Räikkönen FIN Ferrari 174
6. Valtteri Bottas FIN Williams Mercedes 110
7. Daniil Kvyat RUS Red Bull Tag Heuer 105
8. Nico Hülkenberg GER Force India Mercedes 77
9. Fernando Alonso ESP McLaren Honda 74
10. Max Verstappen NED Toro Rosso Ferrari 73
11. Felipe Massa BRA Williams Mercedes 70
12. Sergio Pérez MEX Force India Mercedes 61
13. Jenson Button GBR McLaren Honda 49
14. Carlos Sainz ESP Toro Rosso Ferrari 31
15. Felipe Nasr BRA Sauber Ferrari 16
16. Marcus Ericsson SWE Sauber Ferrari 5
17. Pastor Maldonado VEN Renault 3
18. Romain Grosjean FRA Haas Ferrari 1
= Jolyon Palmer GBR Renault 1
20. Pascal Wehrlein GER Manor Mercedes 0
= Rio Haryanto INA Manor Mercedes 0
= Esteban Gutiérrez MEX Haas Ferrari 0

Constructors championship.
1. Mercedes GP - 688
2. Scuderia Ferrari - 478
3. Red Bull Tag Heuer - 283
4. Williams Mercedes - 180
5. Force India Mercedes - 138
6. McLaren Honda - 123
7. Toro Rosso Ferrari - 104
8. Sauber Ferrari - 21
9. Renault - 4
10. Haas Ferrari - 1
11. Manor Mercedes - 0

Some general notes.
- Pirelli brings pretty cr@ppy tyres for early part of the season, which catches Mercedes out in surprise and Vettel wins two races (Bahrain, Russia) on tyre management. Also Williams struggles in race trim with tyre deg.

- From Spanish GP onwards Mercedes is fully back in the game and loses only 2 wins after that. The wet Austrian GP goes to Vettel and Räikkönen gets his swansong win in the Malaysian GP, where Hamilton & Vettel have a controversial clash and Rosberg struggles with tyre degradation.

- Ricciardo puts in a stunning season in his 2014-style.

- midfield sees the emergence of great rivalry: Alonso v Verstappen. Old star and star of the future. They have a couple of controversial incidents. In the end there is nothing between them. Overall STR is a slightly better car than McLaren, but they once again struggle with race consistency/strategies and Max loses some points through immaturity.

Other than that and 3 wet races - not a classic season.

Edit: Oh, and a 20-race-season. The current provisional calendar has 21 races, but US GP will be cancelled...

[Tazio]

I completed my annual pre-season prediction, without any testing guidelines.

Stayed up half a night to complete all races, so that's pretty crazy, but it was exciting as well.

F1 of 2016 looks like following.

Well done Jens!
I would just like to go on record now saying I will give 1,000.00 USD to every member of this forum if Haas finishes dead last........