Preview of F1 2016

[jens]

Well, rj and Nitrodaze have already started predicting WCC order of 2016 in other threads and I thought I’d at least attempt to waste little time to join the frame. So, what do we expect from 2016? Mercedes as winning again with Ferrari again as a runner-up?

Usually each season sees some changes, though there have been some exceptions, when there have been almost no changes in competitive order from one year to another (1994 -> 1995). So, what changes? Red Bull moving forward with whatever-engines? McLaren moving forward? Somebody else moving forward/backwards?

But to discuss changes, we need to take a look at potential variables, though which are often hard to predict.

Potential variables
Power units
2015 saw a significant improvement from Ferrari PU, which brought a major shift in competitive order - though not major enough to really threaten Mercedes’ supremacy. Ferrari is now performing close enough to Merc to be the only realistic competitor to seriously threaten them. Whether Renault and/or Honda have it in them to make a major move forward, remains unclear, with Renault’s level of F1 commitment continually unclear, likewise Honda’s general depth level.

Chassis
Ranking the chassis is only subjective here, but I’d wager a guess currently Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull fill the top 3 with McLaren and Toro Rosso somewhere after them, and Williams. Force India, Lotus and Sauber operate further behind, and it is unlikely they can make a big step forward with their lack of budget. If Renault buys Lotus and even if they significant invest in the team, changes in competitive order in F1 happen with a certain lag. Which means that if Renault invests heavily into Team Enstone, first results may come in 2017 and no earlier.

Maybe I haven’t followed properly, but I haven’t noticed any significant movements among key personnel?

Tyres
Singapore was an interesting case. Mercedes couldn’t handle the soft tyres and were nowhere by their standards. We know, what happened in early 2012, when nobody understood the tyres and we got 7 different winners in a row. What happened in 2013, when tyres were so undurable that Red Bull and Mercedes had some races, where they were really slow despite locking out front rows on the grid - and Ferrari/Lotus won.

We do not know, what will Pirelli produce for 2016, and maybe they have been told by Bernie to “spice up the show” a little bit. Anyway, whatever it is, tyres are unlikely to deny Mercedes the championship. Just like in ‘12/’13 Red Bull still won regardless of the tyre mess. But what tyres CAN do is to create some unpredictable races and more variety in individual races - which Mercedes doesn’t win. Even if they win the championships in the end.

Red Bull and power units
It is still unclear, what will RBR use next year. But I remain somewhat sceptical Ferrari’s customer PU is really the step forward for RBR/STR, except in reliability. Also integration with PU comes into play. For example I believe part of Toro Rosso’s success is good integration with PU - I suppose currently they are the best-positioned customer team in this area, due to co-operation with Red Bull. And no Mercedes or Ferrari customer currently enjoys such level of ‘integration’.

Rjbetty predicted RB could finish 3rd and Toro Rosso 5th in WCC. I’d guess this is the best possible scenario for either team. But in a worse scenario - in which Merc/Ferrari PU’s make a big step forward over winter, and “bad” PU integration for RB teams - they could be somewhere i.e 4th and 7th respectively too. What about other customer teams, by the way? Will Williams, Force India, Sauber also start using year-old engines? Or does this oddly enough apply to Red Bull only? Lot of grey area here it must be said...

See, I haven’t predicted anything yet. Just brought forward some points of discussion before taking off.

[rjbetty]

Wow great post Jens, and as you know, I just love this sort of thing. The anticipation is almost as much fun or more fun than the season itself.

Those variables are quite correct I'd say and can be very hard to call. Last year I had no clue what the engines would perform like this year. Ron and co were hyping Honda so much that I thought there must be at least some truth to it while Ferrari had seemingly made a knee-jerk reaction in sacking Luca Marmorini, which appeared to leave them with... no-one really in charge. Just like sacking Aldo Costa who was then snapped up by Mercedes, go figure, just as Ferrari's cars started getting worse. So I wondered if Ferrari's PU would be even worse this year.

This led to me getting early predictions wrong to say the least (McLaren 2nd and Ferrari 6th were woefully off the mark)

I put Toro Rosso 5th based on Force India getting year old engines. Now I'm not so sure if Force India will get old engines, but Sauber have expressed concern they might get dumped with some. Also STR's drivers will be faster, more experienced and more able to make the most of their situation. They are already on 45pts this year (their highest since 2008 adjusted for points system) and could have had so much more. Even a year old Ferrari would be a boost, so they could be in for a good haul of points.

That's a very good point about PU integration, I hadn't thought of that.

One example I always think of is Benetton in 1995. The previous year they had won the championship with what was seen as definitely an inferior Ford engine to the Williams Renaults. And now Benetton were to receive the same Renault supply as Williams. Had I followed F1 then, I certainly would have predicted domination from Schumacher/Benetton. But as it turned out, Williams were actually stronger than the previous year. Ross Brawn said years later that the Benetton chassis was actually quite average but it was Michael who made the difference (and who would I be to argue with Ross Brawn). I feel Berger and Alesi's (plus Herbert's) terrible struggles in the same car help confirm this.

Anyway it was said they had problems integrating the new Renault engine into the chassis, finding out that although the Renault had much more power, the humble Ford V8 did have some great advantages in packaging etc that the Renault didn't.

The big thing for me is McLaren. I have a nagging fear that the folk at Honda don't actually have a clue, which is a scary thought. They have been described as underprepared and having woefully underestimated the task this year. This says they don't have much grasp of things. Do they understand that it looks like the big gains simply must be made THIS winter since the tokens and opportunities shrink year on year, reducing the opportunity to fix things?

Still they can't be getting any worse and I look forward to improved performances next year, especially with Button retained.

[rjbetty]

Oh I love having a go at predictions all the time, even if it's far too early. I remember the first time I did this was during the 1999 season. I ran seasons on Grand Prix 2 and remember having Pedro Diniz at Ferrari (amazingly around the time Michael broke his leg, he seemed almost a shoe-in there!) and Irvine was supposed to return to Jordan, so I had them both running strongly there.

I'll try and quickly give a run down of the teams as I see their prospects right now:

I should say that happily, I am quite sure diminishing returns should kick in next year, meaning the grid closing up. I have always been too cautious about this having been disappointed too many times over the years when the grid performances opened out rather than closed, especially in 2001 and 2002. From then on I was always reluctant to expect this.

I had said that I was correct in saying Mercedes would extend their gap, but actually this only happened early in the year. Now the grid is closer than it has been over the last 2 years. Bit like 1997 when Wiliams actually started with a bigger gapt than ever.

1.MERCEDES - more of the same. Thing is they may have been running with power turned down. Look at Lewis at Monza when he had to turn it up. Foreboding or what? But then again if they were really hiding 2sec per lap, why have they lost 3 races this year? They could be forced to turn engine up more in 2016 leading to retirements such as Rosberg at Monza...

2.FERRARI - should close up some more.

3.RED BULL - FERRARI: Year old engines or not, they are already close to Williams now and I expect them to move ahead. If Ferrari are bullied into providing top spec, well they should be right in the mix for wins.

4.WILLIAMS-MERCEDES: Again a little closer than this year, and a little closer than in 2014 but relative to everyone else a bit more in the mix rather than clear 2nd/3rd but still enough for a pretty easy 4th over the season.

5.FORCE INDIA - MERCEDES: I've put them 5th now since they always always surprise me. This year they look set for 5th and I would not have thought that this season. But if they had to miss testing this year why will it be different next year?

6.TORO ROSSO - FERRARI: In qualifying they are always quick and I easily put them 5th on Saturdays, but they never seem to get anywhere near the points their qualifying pace suggests. Having said that, Max in particular looks like one bucking this trend. I can see him having a sort of Vettel 2008 season, a lite version, with lots of mid/lower points finishes adding up to a good haul. I can see him pulling off a podium somewhere.

7.MCLAREN-HONDA: To remain on course of their goal for fighting for the WDC, McLaren-Honda simply must at least be fighting with Force India for 5th in 2016. I am fearing Honda won't make a big enough step, but hopefully am wrong for Alonso's sake. Still it will be interesting to see their drivers more in the mix this time rather than being just too far back to do anything.

8.SAUBER - FERRARI: So much depends on their PU spec. If it's still current then some decent points beckon again, especially as drivers will be more experienced and quicker.

9.RENAULT: So much depends on their PU too? Will Renault make big improvements. My guess is nothing amazing but you never know. I just think if they were really set to make a big step we would have seen more this year. Plus people in the know think they will take another few years to be competitive. In this case, I expect a slip back of at least 0.5sec, though I only put them 9th because of everyone else closing up somewhat.

10.HAAS - FERRARI: The big unknown, even more so than McLaren. They could be last or they could be having a surprisingly solid season in midfield. Have we ever had a team with their level of preparation come in and be last and well off the pace. Toyota weren't totally at the back but rather solidly in the midfield. Same for Stewart. Could be interesting indeed but so hard to call. The only downside is the Dallara chassis will surely lack downforce as I just can't see them having anywhere near as advanced an understanding as Red Bull or Mercedes.

11.MANOR - MERCEDES: A salivating prospect of Mercedes PU, apparently to be current spec? This should gain them well over a second. Then at least one driver who should probably be 0.5s faster than Will Stevens. That brings Stevens' current +5.7sec average qualifying gap down to 4sec at most, hopefully. The rest is how much they will gain with the chassis. It looks like still being some way off unfortunately and much depends on if Haas really do hit the ground running. I will put Manor around Caterham's 2012 level.

[jens]

Great thoughts, rj!

Actually… I think my prediction would look rather similar to yours, if I did one. Or if I attempted to put teams into tiers, in which close competition exists, it could look like following:

Mercedes
Ferrari
Williams, Red Bull
Force India, Toro Rosso, McLaren
Sauber, Renault
Haas
Manor

Grid could close up slightly, as we are into third year of the new regulations era, but ever-so-slightly and not enough to alter rankings too much. I believe tyre compounds, whatever Pirelli brings, could have bigger impact on any potential surprising race results.

Regarding PU integration. As far as I understand, this really is big part of current Red Bull politicking and their threats of leaving. Development of PU is a really close activity between various parties, which includes fuel companies. And for any customer team it is hard to get close to the data i.e Ferrari-Shell or Mercedes-Petronas combos have reached in co-operation. Red Bull wants “equality”, but in current situation it is impossible - they’d need the same fuel, etc, as well, as the works team has.

Driver factor has not been discussed properly yet, but sure enough - for example Alonso is a big asset for McLaren. Currently it doesn't help McLaren much, since they can't even get minor points. But if they can, Alonso with his steely consistency would wring every point out of the car, which would be a big help in any midfield championship battle.

Also currently - for me there is no reason to think FI has a better car than Lotus in 2015, but Maldonado is literally nowhere compared to Grosjean, Pérez and Hülkenberg - and this has made the difference in WCC standings.

I like the thought of Verstappen doing a "2008 Vettel". Winning a race would need a huge amount of luck though, so I am not going to discuss that, but a few top 6 finishes and a firm top 10 position in the Drivers Championship - why not.

Will follow with team-by-team preview one day.

I find it odd we are doing this while we have still got 5 races left this year, but probably shows there is not much more to discuss about the on-going season - everything is clear.

[rjbetty]

Thanks Jens.

Interesting about the fuels and latest data for works engines. I remember reading an article explaining that McLaren could have been 40bhp down on the works Mercedes in 2014 due to not having latest software, fuel, data, everything else. That's a big difference and would explain their slow pace. I always felt the car somehow wasn't all that bad. I don't know where but for some reason I had a figure of even up to 0.7sec that it was costing them!

I'm sure McLaren suffered much more than most since they were leaving their supplier at the end of that year.

I've read that Manor will use PETRONAS fuel as well in 2016. This bodes well that they could get great service for Mercedes and total top notch stuff.

As for Red Bull, I've read that they are loudly demanding all the up-to-the-minute software, data, fuel, everything from Ferrari. They have a huge cheek, just expecting to have all the hard work, investment and development the works Ferrari team put in, and just have that handed to them on a plate, above and beyond all other Ferrari customers. Then they will probably still bitterly complain about something anyway. If I were Ferrari I would be making some demands myself if they expected that - such as charging at least 100million - if they really do want all the works extras other customers won't get.

The big unknowns seem to be McLaren-Honda, Haas and maybe Renault too. Most other teams I expect to make incremental improvements but no huge leaps or dips in form.

I can see Verstappen finishing 9th-11th in the WDC in 2016. I think the top 8 may be pretty much set between Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and Williams, with Alonso, Force India and Verstappen next up in some order depending on things.

[AndyL]

As for Red Bull, I've read that they are loudly demanding all the up-to-the-minute software, data, fuel, everything from Ferrari. They have a huge cheek, just expecting to have all the hard work, investment and development the works Ferrari team put in, and just have that handed to them on a plate, above and beyond all other Ferrari customers. Then they will probably still bitterly complain about something anyway. If I were Ferrari I would be making some demands myself if they expected that - such as charging at least 100million - if they really do want all the works extras other customers won't get.

The latest according to James Allen is that Red Bull won't be getting so much as a rusty washer from Ferrari:
http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/1...cturers-in-f1/
Torro Rosso can still have year-old Ferrari engines, in place of Manor. (Presumably Torro Rosso get the nod because they haven't spent the last 5 years bad-mouthing their engine partner )

I'm sure this is a negotiating ploy rather than a final decision though. Maurizio's just pointing out to Red Bull that they're in no position to make demands.

[Bagwan]

According to Saward , the bulls will run Renault again , as they are negotiating a 9 year deal with FOM , and Bernie wants Red Bull still in the fray .

So , they will kiss and make up , and all will be happy times again with 22 cars on the grid .

[rjbetty]

According to Saward , the bulls will run Renault again , as they are negotiating a 9 year deal with FOM , and Bernie wants Red Bull still in the fray .

So , they will kiss and make up , and all will be happy times again with 22 cars on the grid .

Wow this is throwing some spanners and a kettle of fish in the works. That will prevent any real chance of the Bulls leaping up near the front of the pack. And so Toro Rosso are getting Ferrari but Red Bull are staying with Renault? Wow.

It can easily be that Red Bull will regret their attitude towards Ferrari since their year-old engine may well have provided a small improvement over what they will have now.

But what does this mean for the Lotus/Renault works team now? Does this mean they are completely stuffed?? Hope not...

[rjbetty]

According to Saward , the bulls will run Renault again , as they are negotiating a 9 year deal with FOM , and Bernie wants Red Bull still in the fray .

So , they will kiss and make up , and all will be happy times again with 22 cars on the grid .

Wow this is throwing some spanners and a kettle of fish in the works. That will prevent any real chance of the Bulls leaping up near the front of the pack. And so Toro Rosso are getting Ferrari but Red Bull are staying with Renault? Wow.

It can easily be that Red Bull will regret their attitude towards Ferrari since their year-old engine may well have provided a small improvement over what they will have now.

But what does this mean for the Lotus/Renault works team now? Does this mean they are completely stuffed?? Hope not...

[jens]

I am not sure Renault's 2016 PU should be worse than the 2015 Ferrari PU. Renault probably has some improvement potential in them, even if they will not match the best.

Odd situation with Red Bull, for sure. Maybe Mateschitz means it seriously if he wants to pull Red Bull out of F1... But he knows he is contractually tied to Bernie and can't do it that easily, so lots of heavy negotiating ongoing.