The debuts of rookie drivers - let's recall the past

[jens]

Sure, they were. But he still got beaten - and beaten handily by Ocon.. (who has more car experience, but less years in Karting beforehand..) Ocon also impressed hugely in testing - but he's not marketable in the same way..

Max is in a Red Bull programme - a programme which is supported by a manufacturer of products that is under attack in many, many countries by organisations who have either tried, or trying to prevent its sale to under 18's, under 16's, or (in France) they tried to stop it altogether. These same organisations are also trying to get Red Bull (& Rockstar, Monster etc) sponsorship blocked from events where under 18's compete. Hiring Verstappen is not a coincidence.
Red Bull didn't only promote Max for his merits (great though they are) but also because he was offered a Mercedes F1 test drive for this year, and only a race seat beats that - so that's what Red Bull offered; not because they really wanted to, but because they had to outbid Mercedes.

Sainz was also winning before last year, he was actually very successful against Antonio Felix Da Costa in FR3.5 in 2013 and in F3 in 2012, but got promoted above others (Juncadella, Wehrlein) because of his marketability. That's my point about Junior formulae; if you watch you can see McNish, Kristensen, Brack, Jorg Muller, etc and often see how they miss out on opportunities given to those less deserving because of money.
I think Verstappen deserves (obviously!) a place in F1 and has a good opportunity & made a great debut - but let's not get sucked into believing that it was all about merit only, and not about money & marketing.

Contacts (famous dads/relatives) and lots of money always help. For starters you need to be at least from upper middle class to have any kind of a shot at racing career, as already professional karting is very expensive and you are unlikely to find big outside sponsors at that stage unless you have got your family/relatives business behind you.

So yeah, from that point of view drivers have to be lucky guys. Still doesn't devalue talent among those, who got the opportunity. There are lots of young drivers from famous backgrounds - the Brundle, Mansell, Prost, Piquet, Senna, etc juniors. But none of them have caught the attention of Max. Considering Mercedes and Red Bull were fighting over the services of Max, speaks volume. No other driver has caught such attention at the age of 16, even if they had famous name or were good for marketing.

Ocon is pretty talented. Let's see, if he finds an opportunity. Which sadly didn't happen with Robin Frijns, who I think is very talented.

[jens]

Very nice thread guys. Thanks for the cool post Jens.

Well since I started watching F1 in 19967 with 1998 my first full season, I'd like to start from there.

My first experience being somewhat impressed with a rookie was Tora Takagi qualifying 13th in Australia (repeated in Argentina).

1999 ramped this up with impressive de la Rosa scoring on his debut and being close to Takagi. Zonta only qualified 19th but had a great start to 10th and ran there throughout, pretty much. Stéphane Sarrazin made waves in Brazil by replacing Luca Badoer, well beating Marc Gené but spinning 10(?) times in a race crash!!

Given that the above had been my only real experience of rookie drivers, I was stunned at the season of Jenson Button in 2000. I don't know how it was in other countries, but in the UK, in my perception, his season was huge! I had never seen anything like it at the time.

I often have thought 2001 could be called the year of the rookies. In any usual season, Enrique Bernoldi could have been said to have done fairly well, outqualifying Verstappen (Jos) 9-8, but he was completely overshadowed by Montoya, who could maybe have won 6-7 races(?) - Incredible. Out of that huge limelight, Kimi Raikkonen was probably even better. If Jenson's debut throrhoughly wowed me, Kimi took it to another level imo and did even better! It was Kimi who stood out all season for me by being so close to an on form Heidfeld. Even more out of the limelight and (in hindsight) even better still was a certain Senor F.Alonso, 19yrs old, outqualifying Benettons, Arrows, Prosts, Jaguars and BARS in a nowhere Minardi.

2002 didn't reach the rookie heights of 01 but we still had Massa, though Webber was better imo. Sato and McNish had their moments.

A few barren years till 06 where I then agree with Jens' thiughts.

Yeah, Takagi qualifying 13th in the Tyrrell on his debut as well as Tuero qualifying 17th in the Minardi must have been some incredible anomalies! Because based on debut qualifying they looked like stars, but neither were going to mount to much.

I also remember Button was a kid of rookie not seen a few years. An addition to the somewhat impressive list of 1996-97 rookies of Trulli, Fisichella and R.Schumacher, who all caught attention in 1997 certainly. The hype around Button was huge, and I felt over the top at that time as well. 2000 was the time, when people were asking - who is going to be the next star after Häkkinen and Schumacher? Because they had been top dogs for 3 years, and the era had to end some time. So Button seemed like an answer to many people. But 2001 changed this perception quickly...

It is always the matter of whether and how much to get carried away with rookie performances. There have been lots of debuts. For me it is the matter of taking into account everything. Not just results and race performances, but also age, experience, team, and general impression. It is a huge puzzle.

In the past I have often been carried away with rookie performances, only to find out later that the driver didn't turn out to be that good and remained inconsistent. So it is important to be somewhat selective.