VERY early 2015 prediction thoughts!

[jens]

I wanted to make one more post. This time about Ferrari v McLaren. I remember in winter I made one post pondering about the situation.

In comparison to McLaren, the other team in "restructuring phase". Ferrari definitely had the better chassis in 2013-2014 of the two. And in 2015 McLaren is very likely to have less power advantage (if any) over Ferrari than they did in 2014. But about chassis - will it stay that was in 2015, or return to 2011-12 with McLaren having more potential in the chassis? To avoid basing predictions on the past year, it might just well be so. But I can't say I am convinced in this either way!

Ferrari's restructing has been described as mess with many people getting sacked. But in which way is McLaren's restructuring better? How can we evaluate, whose restructuring works better than the other? Or we just have to wait and see...? It is all very complicated - both Ferrari and McLaren are one of the hardest teams to predict for 2015, and we have to predict how well they are restructuring while not seeing into their teams everyday activities.
Like Ferrari, McLaren has been restructuring. But McLaren has also its own problems, which - unlike Ferrari - have gone under the radar. There has also been some sacking, like M.Whitmarsh, Sam Michael, and others. And Ron Dennis' own position is not secure. A lot depends on the chemistry in the all-new package. This chemistry is hard to predict. Somehow Williams got it all right for this year - Pat Symonds, and others, and car development was brilliant.

Anyway. What I wanted to say. Both Ferrari and McLaren have been restructuring. But for a long time the hype has been all in favour of McLaren. Honda, Ron Dennis, Alonso - this combination must succeed, look at the names! While Ferrari has been bashed - they are in turmoil, they have lost their best asset (Alonso), now they are a mismanaged team and two bad drivers, who can't drive like Alonso!

The hype was notable. I very nearly went along with it. In retrospect I can say thankfully I predicted Ferrari to finish ahead of McLaren this year! Whatever else happens this year, I am most relieved about that.

Why was McLaren's restructuring considered to be better than Ferrari's? It lacked evidence except people's emotional investment. In reality - there has been nothing specifically wrong with Ferrari's restructuring. They have got rid of "dead wood". In contrast McLaren - what have they done so fantastically? They got rid of Martin Whitmarsh and Sam Michael? But it looks like they were just scapegoats, they weren't the key reason, why McLaren wasn't winning (any more).

[Rollo]

Sauber will not survive to Round 2 in Bahrain.
Lotus to be re-bought by Renault before year's end.
Force India will make it to Round 9 Mexico but will not show up at Round 10 in Abu Dhabi.

[rjbetty]

I wanted to make one more post. This time about Ferrari v McLaren. I remember in winter I made one post pondering about the situation.



Anyway. What I wanted to say. Both Ferrari and McLaren have been restructuring. But for a long time the hype has been all in favour of McLaren. Honda, Ron Dennis, Alonso - this combination must succeed, look at the names! While Ferrari has been bashed - they are in turmoil, they have lost their best asset (Alonso), now they are a mismanaged team and two bad drivers, who can't drive like Alonso!

The hype was notable. I very nearly went along with it. In retrospect I can say thankfully I predicted Ferrari to finish ahead of McLaren this year! Whatever else happens this year, I am most relieved about that.

Why was McLaren's restructuring considered to be better than Ferrari's? It lacked evidence except people's emotional investment. In reality - there has been nothing specifically wrong with Ferrari's restructuring. They have got rid of "dead wood". In contrast McLaren - what have they done so fantastically? They got rid of Martin Whitmarsh and Sam Michael? But it looks like they were just scapegoats, they weren't the key reason, why McLaren wasn't winning (any more).

Hey Jens, yeah you're right. But I was going by 'not judging too much by the previous season. e.g. in 2007 McLaren made a good step from not winning a race to taking the WCC "on the road".

I never thought they could challenge Mercedes, except maybe the odd race if Honda hit the ground running, which was a big unknown. The chassis appears pretty good and the 2014 drivers speak well of it compared to last year. Seems Newey's old deputy Peter Prodromou has done a pretty good job.

Red Bull have lost him, and early signs from practice seems Red Bull may not make 2nd in the WCC, so I will have got that right. Also about Force India struggling, Sauber's testing pace not being at all real, and Toro Rosso maybe looking quite good.

[Mia 01]

Its of no use to comment on MacLaren for now.

[Tazio]

Its of no use to comment on MacLaren for now.

Well excuse us.!

[CNR]

Toro Rosso may have a win or two this year

[Tazio]

Its no use

Seb will beat Kimi mercilessly!

agree!

[BDunnell]

My main predictions for 2015: viewing figures the world over on the complete slide, and the FIA and Ecclestone doing nothing about it. To have F1, the WRC and WTCC each dominated by a single team is a massive turn-off.

[jens]

Soo…
First race is over. I’ll make a slight mix of expectations so far, impressions from first race, and projections for the rest of the year.

Mercedes - where expected to be. Nothing to say really. It is going to be like 2014 for them.

Ferrari - about where expected to be. Due to the struggles of RB even look relatively slightly better off. However, I do feel Ferrari needs to capitalize on street/twistier circuits compared to Williams, who is going to be strong in places, where engine power counts more! So with Williams and possibly Red Bull being strong, Ferrari will not get onto the podium everywhere, but they could get top 6 finishes very consistently and amass good points by the end of the year.

Williams - about where expected to be. They look well-positioned to challenge for P2 in the constructors. It will be down to consistency and maximizing potential/results, which Williams has been often lacking, but we will see this year.

Red Bull - worse than expected. If they are about a match to Toro Rosso, there is something not quite right and it is not about the power unit only! The departures of Prodromou and Newey might have slightly shocked/destabilized the team. But still - they are a well-funded team and far be it from me to write them off. Plus in the past they have had stunning in-season development. Plus Ricciardo is a driver, who has proven to have the ability to score good points very consistently, like Alonso. I think Red Bull is capable of more than what they showed. But we need a few more race weekends to judge, where exactly they sit compared to Ferrari and Williams.

Then it is good to see that we have a strong midfield. Sauber, Force India, Toro Rosso, Lotus - no-one is going to be nowhere this year like Sauber and to a lesser extent Lotus were last year. So all of them will score and compete well!

Sauber - last year 0, this year already 14 pts on board with a single race! Wow! Looking at long-term implications, this may have been their best race of the year. And with other teams improving, they’ll have trouble keeping up. But good thing is they are better than last year and won’t give up without a fight even if they still end up 8th or 9th in WCC.

Force India - worse than expected, but then again I also didn’t foresee them having such a trouble pre-season with almost not testing at all. They did very well to maximize on the problems on others and score 7 points in Australia. They should have an upward development curve during the season, even if overall will get nowhere near their 2014 score.

Toro Rosso - I thought rookie line-up should at least somewhat hold them back, but this wasn’t the case. Or the James Key designed car is so good almost anyone would look good in it. Which is also a possibility. In Australia they looked better in qualifying trim than in race trim. Also looking at 2014, they had a tendency to be stronger on street circuits than elsewhere. They should be pretty regular point contenders this year, but exact WCC position is open.

Lotus - about where expected to be though suffered massive unluck in Australia to be out already on Lap 1. However, they should be pretty regular points contenders and I would not rule out a possibility of a few great weekends among them, where they challenge for podium. I’d say a strong contender for P5 in WCC.

McLaren - well… embarrassing and worse than expected. Really. They will improve. So later in the season they should have the ability to fight against midfield teams as well. But top teams are too far out of reach to catch them. And they’ll have trouble achieving that P5 in the constructors as well, where I projected them to be.

[A FONDO]

Well, this is just the first race and Albert Park is a specific track.

Ferrari are renovated and full of enthusiasm and usually in these conditions things go easily well, but it won't be for long, others won't just stay and watch them. Especially RBR, they are not muppets and later on will get to grips for sure.