VERY early 2015 prediction thoughts!

[journeyman racer]

We'll be told about how much of a cheater Nico Rosberg is. There'll also be lots of speculation about how he'll cheat in upcoming races, like backing Hamilton up, so others can overtake him.

[rjbetty]

We'll be told about how much of a cheater Nico Rosberg is. There'll also be lots of speculation about how he'll cheat in upcoming races, like backing Hamilton up, so others can overtake him.

Don't worry there won't be accusations of cheating if no-one cheats. I've noticed all people who like Hamilton on this forum are able to give Rosberg credit where it's due, fair and square. Which you can't say about fans of every driver. Therefore I'm not sure I understand where your obsession is coming from...

But keep trying, I don't think many care tbh...

[journeyman racer]

The prediction is there. I don't think TBK can resist. edit: TBK won't resist!

I also considered a number of other outcomes (Hamilton back to back. Ricciardo 2nd. Bottas/Alonso with at least a win each. Vettel failing to get a podium. Jensen Button winning the BTCC), but what I stated earlier is the only one I'm most confident in actually occurring.

[Rollo]

Jensen Button winning the BTCC

How about the V8 Supercar Championship for 888.



Would he be up for that if he got given a ride?

[Malbec]

To be honest, I am not sure about Honda's know-how in these types of engines. But if I had to make a guess, I'd say that any manufacturer in the world would have trouble against current Mercedes' performance in F1, were they to take on F1 project. They have made such a big impression. I personally expect Honda to be more in the Renault/Ferrari range or at best slightly ahead. But that's my guess.

If you're talking about overall corporate experience of hybrids then Honda has more experience than any of the manufacturers in F1, although with Ferrari and Renault that isn't saying much. IIRC Honda were the first to market a hybrid car although they failed to market it properly which is why everybody remembers the Prius and not the equivalent Honda. Their battery technology is also very advanced as they need to keep developing new technology to go with their fuel cell project where they are again market leaders along with Toyota. Having said that I am not sure how much technology can be shared between 'civilian' hybrids and F1 ERS systems.

The one difference I guess between Honda and Renault in particular is that Honda developed its own complete KERS system in house for 2009 while Renault never did, and that lack of experience was a major problem for the French company when it came to developing its current powerplant.

What we simply do not know is how long Honda have been developing their engine for and what resources they have devoted to it. Their R/D arm is very secretive and often Honda's board are not aware of exactly what the R/D section is up to. They often develop engines for new FIA regulations simply to keep their understanding of modern racing technology up to date with no intention of actually racing them (which is how the WTCC engines were developed) and we do know that Honda developed exhaust blown diffusers while they were out of F1 simply to understand the concept. The F1 engine project might have a small group of engineers (and that is what Arai has been suggesting) or it might be a full blown huge project like the 2009 Honda project was. They might have been developing the engine for as long as Mercedes or for only 1-2 years once the McLaren deal was signed.

What we do know is that Mercedes' engine superiority is no accident, they devoted more resources over a longer period than any of the other engine manufacturers to the 2014 engine and Honda along with the others have a long way to catch up and this will require intensive investment.

IMO the Honda engine will probably be better than the Renault and the Ferrari for several reasons. Firstly Renault and Ferrari engines started from a lower baseline of performance in 2014, but also because IMO Honda will be throwing much more resources into their engine than Renault in particular and probably Ferrari too. I simply haven't seen any signs that Renault have expanded their R/D team much since it was massively downsized with the engine freeze all those years ago (though conversely that means I have been hugely impressed with how much their engine has improved over the course of the season).

Honda's traditional weakness is politics though, their V8 was weak because they took the engine freeze rules at face value. The engine was reliable so they didn't develop it while Mercedes and Ferrari continued to improve their engines using the reliability clause to improve performance. They have lost out in other formulae and on two wheels too for failing to take advantage of political circumstances. I would hope that McLaren have enough clout with Tokyo to guide them through any engine politics to their advantage but I am not very confident that that will be the case.

That said I expect all four engines to be closer in performance next season as relatively easily rectified problems have been resolved and Mercedes will find further improvement more difficult than the other makers. Actually even at this stage at the end of the 2014 season I suspect that the gap between the Renault and Mercedes engines is not as big as some people like Horner would have us believe, the Renault has improved so much that the drivers say they notice a big difference in performance every time they swap an old engine for a new one.

[journeyman racer]

How about the V8 Supercar Championship for 888.

Would he be up for that if he got given a ride?

1) Being a Pom, he should go for the BTCC first. Regardless of it's standard relative to other series, it would a good series to win, and a nice bonus to Button's trophy cabinet.

2) Marcos Ambrose is back! Along with Jamie Whincup, he'll be doing well to finish 3rd.

3) I wouldn't dismiss Bathurst 1000 or 12 hour win sometime in the future.

[jens]

Thanks, Malbec. Great insight. I'll take this into consideration.

As for the question - how much crossover is there between "civilian hybrid cars" and F1 technology, is a difficult question. However, looking at 2014 performance trends I am highly suspicious there is at least some. And if we take this into consideration, it doesn't come as a surprise Mercedes is the best out of the three.

Let's look at Ferrari, the most striking example. We may discuss about their engine budget, but engine was never a problem for them. Even if they didn't have the best engine, engines used to have plenty of horsepower and engine itself wasn't really a weakness in the package. Be it the V12, V10, V8.

However, now we are suddenly into a new "hybrid" era and Ferrari's engines are nowhere. They are the weakest link of the package. This makes me think that whatever quality Ferrari used to have in the engine department, doesn't exist now. They lack some specialists in the hybrid stuff. And for whatever reason have failed to hire them. If the car company in general has specialists on hybrid technology, I think carrying this competence over to F1 would be easier - they can be sent to participate on F1 project as well.

However, point taken, that based on 'hybrid expertise' in the company Honda is likely to be better than either Renault or Ferrari. We will see in 2015 whether this hypothesis works in practice.

[Malbec]

Ferrari do have a hybrid roadcar project, for years now they have been trying to move away from the German trend of a bigger heavier car being powered by an even more powerful engine with ever model cycle and have been developing hybrid technology (or more likely buying it in). Also the manufacturer itself doesn't have to have considerable expertise in this field as long as partners do, and Magnetti Marelli is good enough in this area for Honda to use them as a partner as well, I think the knowledge base is there.

With Ferrari I think Marmorini's comments are probably accurate. He was asked to ensure the powerplant was compact and aerodynamics friendly as possible which also means a less powerful turbo and ERS system to reduce cooling needs. He was told that the chassis and aero guys would make up for the lack of power with superior aero until the car hit the track, the aero was poor and they turned round and shifted the blame onto his department for developing a compact but less powerful unit as he had been asked too. This isn't in itself a stupid pathway to go down, the Cosworth DFV was rarely the most powerful unit but its strengths came from its rigidity so it could be used as a fully stressed member, and the fact that its V-configuration was useful in minimising chassis cross-sectional area and maximising air flow around the bottom of the car, useful with ground effects cars.

[jens]

Well yeah. It it always a tough call who is how much "at fault". But I do not want to take all responsibility away from engine department. Though it also means it is automatically the responsibility of Ferrari leadership, who overestimated the capabilities of their engine department.

Whatever compromise they decided to make with the car package, it must have become a surprise to them that Mercedes could be so-so far ahead of them. Perhaps they were prepared for a small handicap, but not a big one. Ferrari may have been committed to aerodynamics, but I suspect Dom/LDM were not critical enough about engine department, believing they would "do a solid job" as usual, hence were living off past glories so-to-speak. And engine department was not upgraded to sufficient standard, which most likely should have included more expertise in hybrid technology.

[Malbec]

Well yeah. It it always a tough call who is how much "at fault". But I do not want to take all responsibility away from engine department. Though it also means it is automatically the responsibility of Ferrari leadership, who overestimated the capabilities of their engine department.

Whatever compromise they decided to make with the car package, it must have become a surprise to them that Mercedes could be so-so far ahead of them. Perhaps they were prepared for a small handicap, but not a big one. Ferrari may have been committed to aerodynamics, but I suspect Dom/LDM were not critical enough about engine department, believing they would "do a solid job" as usual, hence were living off past glories so-to-speak. And engine department was not upgraded to sufficient standard, which most likely should have included more expertise in hybrid technology.

While I am certainly no Ferrari fan I think you're being very harsh on them.

We were not to know that Mercedes had invested $100s of millions extra into their F1 project overall and into their engines in particular, investment that dwarfed every other team over the past two seasons including Ferrari and RBR, a level of investment not seen since Honda and the 2009 car.

None of the engine makers had a target to aim for with this all-new formula and Renault in particular had to cope with a cut down R/D team that the parent car company had no real interest in expanding. Ferrari too could not expand their engine team purely for the new hybrid regulations and it is unreasonable IMO for people to expect large companies to expand and contract their R/D teams purely based on F1 regulation changes. This is not how multinationals (and Ferrari is one as it is part of FIAT) work, they set aside a particular budget years in advance and it is difficult to change that purely because the FIA thinks new engines would be great two years down the line. Mercedes were just lucky that their board had set aside a particularly large budget aside for F1 a year or two after acquiring Brawn.

I think Mercedes did a great job with the engine but one that was completely proportional to their budget and the length of time spent on it. Renault and Ferrari also produced engines that were completely proportional to their budget, resources and time spent on theirs. I don't think any of them over or underperformed at all.