VERY early 2015 prediction thoughts!

[jens]

Well, this is just the first race and Albert Park is a specific track.

Ferrari are renovated and full of enthusiasm and usually in these conditions things go easily well, but it won't be for long, others won't just stay and watch them. Especially RBR, they are not muppets and later on will get to grips for sure.

Well, let me put it this way. There is sure a lot unclear between Ferrari, Williams and Red Bull, how the rest of the season pans out. But these should be the teams, who can claim to have a shot at second in WCC.

Ferrari has started well, but I have to say they are going to have their hands full fending off Williams on faster circuits. Let's see in Malaysia. If Ferrari can still if not beat then at least fight against Williams, they will have done well.

[A FONDO]

Williams' car is very good, I think better than Ferrari but as I said in another topic their drivers aren't complete. Massa has proven to be nothing special and very often falls down even after a good start. Bottas is inexperienced and lacks that aggression needed for really big things.

[rjbetty]

With the opening 4 flyaway races done and dusted, and a break till the European season, it's time to embarrass some of my fellow forumers!

Remember this?

Read some comments above about Ferrari/ Allison's package possibly 2nd? I think this is wishful thinking. I read an article a while back that suggested that the Ferrari could actually be slower next year

As for my predictions, my PRE testing thoughts are in post 1 page 1. Bear in mind this was before the 2014 season had even finished, so be kind to me.

My POST testing Predictions were pretty much

1.Mercedes
2.Williams
3.Ferrari
4.Red Bull
5.McLaren
6.Lotus
7.Toro Rosso
8.Force India
9.Sauber

Given that I wasn't to know what had happened on the competitive front regarding engines, I think I did pretty well.

My early McLaren assumption was based on Honda starting off pretty well. I still feel the McLaren chassis is quite good. Though Melbourne was shocking, the engine was like 200bhp down, and very rough calculations correcting this would I think, have put them, say behind Williams territory i.e. around 5th. And that doesn't include the possibility the car has more time to be found through honing and setup, which I guess they haven't done since everything has been about just actually running.

I wasn't to know Ferrari had made great strides with their PU, especially ERS(?), and it was a total guess they might actually slip back a bit on the PU. That's why my early prediction of 5th or even 6th in the WCC came to be.

Hey I actually got Red Bull falling out of the top 3 right!

Williams I thought would shade it for 2nd, but I was wrong.

I do actually think that, apart from Ferrari's form, Mercedes has actually pulled out an even bigger gap over the rest.

Toro Rosso looking stronger, bad engine and rookie drivers taken into account, and comparing better to Red Bull seems correct. I was completely convinced Verstappen would sink not swim, just as Raikkonen did in 2001 when Mosley and co tried to ban him!

Lotus was a big unknown, but I eventually put them not far from where they are now.

Sauber I got wrong, just as much as Ferrari, but what's the common link there?

Force India struggling and around 2.5sec off the pace was something I feel I got right.



Overall definitely one of my best prediction seasons given I didn't know the competitive order of engines. Makes up for my shocking 2013 (McLaren winning title, Sauber winning races etc).


EDIT: Massive congratulations to Manor! Wish they could get a 2015 engine. Look what it's done for Ferrari and Sauber! I got my Manor expectation wrong too as I had them not even making it; I was hoping for the best but prepared for the worst.

[rjbetty]

Williams' car is very good, I think better than Ferrari but as I said in another topic their drivers aren't complete. Massa has proven to be nothing special and very often falls down even after a good start. Bottas is inexperienced and lacks that aggression needed for really big things.

About Bottas, I am starting to feel concerned. I totally think he is/will go on to be better than Hulkenberg, but he too just seems too conservative. I'm a fan and set a lot of stock on what Sir Frank Williams has said about him e.g. as good as anyone who's sat in a Williams car (think about that).

[Mia 01]

for certain, as on other blogs, people living their Dreams. But posters on bigger blogs feels like their predictions could make their whish to happen. I Watch see and laugh.

[anfield5]

About Bottas, I am starting to feel concerned. I totally think he is/will go on to be better than Hulkenberg, but he too just seems too conservative. I'm a fan and set a lot of stock on what Sir Frank Williams has said about him e.g. as good as anyone who's sat in a Williams car (think about that).

This is the biggest compliment any driver could get, as good as the likes of Coulthard, Boutsen and Patrese...

All joking aside though, if Frank has stated that Bo77as is as good as the likes of Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet etc. He should be able to look back on a career full of race wins and titles. Time will tell

[Tazio]

It is really hard to gage Bottas right now because his teammate is a hard guy to pin down at times. Felipe is fast. That little guy is as fast as anyone when he is on his game. The problem is that he is very inconsistent. I still believe that (with the exception of the first few races after he came back from his injury) he is as fast as anyone, at least he used to be. Beating him convincingly when he is in a car that suits him is no small accomplishment, and I think Kimi will attest to that!
JMHO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzkUNR5sYQs

[rjbetty]

Right so how do the predictions stack up now?

I will compare my predictions for 2014, made after Abu Dhabi 2014, then after pre-season testing had finished, and how they actually turned out by now (Sept 2015). I will post both predicted WCC positions (late 2014, then before Melbourne) followed by their current actual standing:

MERCEDES - 1st 1st 1st
Always had them pulling out a bigger gap. They kind of have in some ways.

FERRARI - 6th 3rd 2nd
I initially didn't know the engine had made such strides and thought they might drop back even further. My early prediction was before the "new" team had really settled in too.

WILLIAMS - 3rd 2nd 3rd
Was convinced they'd build on 2014 to be 2nd best but Ferrari have far overtaken them.

RED BULL - 4th 4th 4th
Pretty much as expected, dropping out of the top 3.

FORCE INDIA - 7th 8th 5th
As testing approached it was increasingly clear financial problems were finally catching up, as I had believed inevitable for a long time, yet they have still developed beyond my expectations. I had the early season pinned just right but not the later half.

LOTUS - MERCEDES - 5th 6th 6th
Always a tough one to call but I guess pretty much where I imagined they'd be.

TORO ROSSO - 8th 7th 7th
I expected them to be closer to Red Bull and a pretty strong season but still they exceeded my expectations.

SAUBER - 9th 9th 8th
I was very pessimistic all along, especially with new drivers, but it was only in Melbourne I realised Sauber have much improved.

MCLAREN - HONDA - 2nd 5th 9th
Oh dear, I don't think I ever imagined it would be this bad. As in 2013 and 2014 I believed the hype before wising up just in time to dump them from my FGP team.

MANOR - FERRARI (2014) - N/A N/A 10th
They've already far exceeded my expectations by amazingly just being there.

[jens]

Right now I am not predicting 2015, because that would need a precise analysis. But if I am going to fantasize some kind of a general view or picture, what is going on on race track, it would be like this:

- Mercedes once again locks out the front row and leads the front of the field. And gun for the title!

Pretty much so, except we have had an odd surprise, where they are not THAT competitive (hello Singapore!), which never happened in 2014.

- Ricciardo is "best of the rest" again. Red Bull-Renault has slightly closed the gap, but ever-so-slightly and not enough to make a significant impact on the championship. But Ricciardo has to look behind, others are challenging. Kvyat is hit and miss. He has been fast in 2014, but not as convincing compared to Vergne as Ricciardo was.

RBR-Renault did not improve, probably even got worse. Retrospectively I didn't fully grasp, how underfunded Renault's effort is. RBR also does not have quite as stunning chassis post-Newey, but they are still strong enough.

- Ferrari with new James Allison design is a slightly better car, which enables them to have a better fight against Red Bull and Williams, but not enough for more than a few podiums. Unless luck goes their way, then more.

Improved, but much more than that. Most of the improvement comes from power unit, because chassis was decent already in 2014. I didn't consider such engine improvement possible in the "frozen" regs era, but Ferrari has done it!

- Williams is still good, but not as clearly second fastest as they have been in 2014. They have peaked. Still fight it out in close company with Red Bull and Ferrari.

Yeah, Williams is good, but has "peaked". Not quite second fastest car, like they often were in 2014, and struggles on street circuits.

Like, Ferrari, McLaren starts the hard journey back to better days. Chassis is slightly better after the rubbish they had in 2014 with the best PU. But still some way to go. Honda turns out to be slightly overrated. Not a match to Mercedes, though competitive with Renault and Ferrari engines. Alonso and Magnussen fight for minor points. Alonso is a committed fighter and sometimes drags the car to RBR-Ferrari-Williams camp. All the while he is an a long-term deal and tells to media that "2015 is a build-up year for McLaren-Honda, let's wait for 2016."

McLaren isn't even in minor points. "Wait for 2016 means more like "wait for 2017". The mountain is too much to climb.

- Lotus with Mercedes engines is better, thereabouts where Force India currently is. Minor points. Maldonado still crashes, Grosjean gets consistent points.

Yeah... Maldonado crashing is the safest prediction by the way. I certainly predict it for 2016 as well.

- Force India does its usual trick by being good/decentish for half a year and struggling for half. Close fight with Lotus.

Yeah they usually have a season of two halves, but this time other way around - a slow start, because they barely had any winter testing running. Looks like having a good shot of beating Lotus though.

- Toro Rosso is not bad, but they are slightly held back by two (probably) rookie drivers, who struggle with setups. They get better in the second half of 2015.

Toro Rosso has actually exceeded my expectations. Their chassis is really good. Also I thought rookie line-up would hold them back more, just like STR didn't achieve much in 2012 with new Dan-JEV line-up.

- Sauber is slightly better and actually scores points. New era, new drivers, new sponsors. New building up for the future.

Actually scores points, with a bonus of a brilliant Australian GP, which has contributed to half of Sauber's overall points score!

[jens]

Lesson for me:

I mostly got wrong power unit predictions.

Ferrari improved a lot. Monza showed they must be relatively close to Mercedes now.

Renault actually got worse. They have had so many engine failures this year. Even last year was better than that.

Honda is not "competitive with Ferrari/Renault" at all. Of course considering Ferrari improved, it was hard to be competitive with them. But Honda isn't even competitive with the declining and underfinanced Renault...

--

So... It is POSSIBLE to improve power units in off-season like Ferrari proved. However, far from me be it to expect Honda to improve so much that they would be anywhere near the front next year. Why? Because they are TOO FAR behind. Isn't it something like 100+ horsepower?

Whatever Ferrari's heavily criticized situation was in 2014, it was still much-much better than Honda's today. Ferrari wasn't a backmarker in 2014, they were strongly in the points. Alonso scored ~150 points in Ferrari last year, as opposed to 11 in McLaren this year. Quite a clear difference isn't it? Ferrari improved A LOT from that level, but they are still well off Mercedes most of the time.

People considered 2014 Ferrari to be rubbish, but I think there is an all-new definition to what rubbish REALLY means. McLaren should be glad if they can compete with their "arch-rivals" Force India next year somewhere in midfield. It would only be possible with a massively improved Honda power unit - massively improved means only 50 horsepower down on Mercedes, as opposed to 100+ hp! It WOULD BE a mammoth improvement, though it would still mean they are nowhere...