VERY early 2015 prediction thoughts!

[rjbetty]

I know it's surely far too early but I wanted to have a quick look at how the form might sorta turn out for 2015!

1.MERCEDES
No change here, 2015 could be to 1989 what 2014 has been to 1988. Hopefully if Nico wins the title, he will be less desperate to do whatever it takes and it should go Hamilton's way from now on.

2.MCLAREN-HONDA
My early prediction for McLaren is a strong 2nd! Hard to imagine now but I feel it could be like 2007 compared to 2006. Peter Prodomou and Alonso should have a good effect. This is assuming Honda have got it right. Ron Dennis is happy it seems but I have no idea if he has an idea... I think McLaren may have lost out badly this year due to not having latest software etc from Mercedes, accounting for their gap. All this should see a fair improvement maybe. I actually think they could be a dark horse if the Honda is good, but maybe the team still needs too much work to do just yet.

3.FERRARI
Most likely to be 3rd maybe. Changes are afoot and I expect an improvement on the chassis side due to James Allison. Kimi shouldn't do so badly and Vettel also shouldn't be any worse. Big question mark over the PU since they made the engine guy a scapegoat. Who exactly is in charge of that now???

4.RED BULL-RENAULT
I've read rumours that Renault aren't able to make much improvement unless they use politics to get their way. With Adrian Newey going, can they close the gap that much? Regardless of Vettel's 2014, I don't think Kvyat can match either that or Ricciardo in 2015 in terms of points. But then we said the same thing about Ricciardo...

5.WILLIAMS-MERCEDES
A tough one. Williams have followed up a good season with a catastrophic one, but the reasons for 2013 being bad don't seem to apply this time as the staff who made 2014 good seem to be sticking around. Bottas can only improve as can Massa now he's settled in (or will he go down the slippery slope). The question mark though is money.

6.LOTUS-MERCEDES
The 6th team of a clear top 6. Mercedes is an instant benefit, a 2nd year of this regs should be easier, and Maldonado should surely improve on 2014. Should score much more points in 2015.

7.FORCE INDIA-MERCEDES
Oh dear. They really look like being in trouble soon... Unable to develop this year with serious money issues. I think it will finally catch up on them in 2015 and will start heading the way of Sauber. Expect them to drop back in one form or another.

8.TORO ROSSO-RENAULT
Pretty sure being Red Bull's Jr team shouldn't see them sink without a trace. Will be same as usual probably.

9.SAUBER-FERRARI
Oh dear. Well at least Sauber have improved lately but with Ericsson and Nasr they ain't going anywhere. Still stuck with Ferrari power. Surely can grab at least a point.

Others - Not sure there will be any. Yikes!


All in all, Mercedes should win again, as looking at the possible challengers, no-one seems in a position to close the gap enough, at least for 2015 anyway. Though there does seem to be interesting potential for changes beyond the top 2 however.

[jens]

Right now I am not predicting 2015, because that would need a precise analysis. But if I am going to fantasize some kind of a general view or picture, what is going on on race track, it would be like this:

- Mercedes once again locks out the front row and leads the front of the field. And gun for the title!

- Ricciardo is "best of the rest" again. Red Bull-Renault has slightly closed the gap, but ever-so-slightly and not enough to make a significant impact on the championship. But Ricciardo has to look behind, others are challenging. Kvyat is hit and miss. He has been fast in 2014, but not as convincing compared to Vergne as Ricciardo was.

- Ferrari with new James Allison design is a slightly better car, which enables them to have a better fight against Red Bull and Williams, but not enough for more than a few podiums. Unless luck goes their way, then more.

- Williams is still good, but not as clearly second fastest as they have been in 2014. They have peaked. Still fight it out in close company with Red Bull and Ferrari.

- Like, Ferrari, McLaren starts the hard journey back to better days. Chassis is slightly better after the rubbish they had in 2014 with the best PU. But still some way to go. Honda turns out to be slightly overrated. Not a match to Mercedes, though competitive with Renault and Ferrari engines. Alonso and Magnussen fight for minor points. Alonso is a committed fighter and sometimes drags the car to RBR-Ferrari-Williams camp. All the while he is an a long-term deal and tells to media that "2015 is a build-up year for McLaren-Honda, let's wait for 2016."

- Lotus with Mercedes engines is better, thereabouts where Force India currently is. Minor points. Maldonado still crashes, Grosjean gets consistent points.

- Force India does its usual trick by being good/decentish for half a year and struggling for half. Close fight with Lotus.

- Toro Rosso is not bad, but they are slightly held back by two (probably) rookie drivers, who struggle with setups. They get better in the second half of 2015.

- Sauber is slightly better and actually scores points. New era, new drivers, new sponsors. New building up for the future.

[rjbetty]

Don't worry I plan to go into more detail next year I guess. Guess I can't wait for the pre-season to start, even though there's an exciting title fight this weekend!

[jens]

Don't worry I plan to go into more detail next year I guess. Guess I can't wait for the pre-season to start, even though there's an exciting title fight this weekend!

There are always various tricky factors in play before each season. One of them is Honda.

One thing from history tells me that usually a new engine manufacturer doesn't come in and wipe the floor with everyone. There are very few exceptions, but they are already a long way back in history. One of them Cosworth DFV in 1967, which beat everyone from the get-go. And Porsche TAG turbo-charged engine, which in the McLaren beat everyone in 1984. Those were debut stunners.

But other than that it takes time to build yourself up. Even Williams-BMW wasn't spectacular in 2000, even though BMW developed arguably the most powerful engine on the grid from 2001 onwards. In 2000 their engine was solid, but I'd say chassis was the stronger aspect of the package that year than the engine. In 1998-2000 Williams had a good chassis, let down by engine.

Also Honda is well-hyped, but the last time they had a significant impact on F1, was when Senna was in McLaren. Honda came back in 2000, and didn't show much bar an excellent season with BAR in 2004. And in the V8 era Honda was always underpowered to the extent that many people claimed Brawn GP won because they got the much better Mercedes engine.

However, whatever it was, now we are into a completely new era – the hybrid engines. Which is a completely different ballgame as we see. Basically success in this era depends on how much expertise each engine manufacturer has on hybrid technology – and it is not directly related to F1, but also their everyday business! I think therein lies also the Mercedes advantage. Fiat/Ferrari and Renault simply do not have enough depth in their team regarding the hybrid stuff. However, I believe manufacturers like VW/Audi or Toyota could do well in the new hybrid era.

To be honest, I am not sure about Honda's know-how in these types of engines. But if I had to make a guess, I'd say that any manufacturer in the world would have trouble against current Mercedes' performance in F1, were they to take on F1 project. They have made such a big impression. I personally expect Honda to be more in the Renault/Ferrari range or at best slightly ahead. But that's my guess.

About McLaren – I think it is a reasonable guess that as they were not a works team in 2014, they were suffering from lack of communication and engine integration. Already in winter before testing it was said that „works teams will have an advantage“, and in 2014 all three „A-teams“ have been well above their counterparts with the same power unit. But regardless of engine-chassis integration McLaren themselves have a lot to prove in chassis design and Honda in the engine department. Can they take the fight to Red Bull-Renault and Ferrari works packages? Maybe.

[Mia 01]

Lets talk about this season first, it´s plenty of time.

[rjbetty]

Yeah I think you´re right

[zako85]

It will be interesting to see who will be the best among Lotus, Williams, and Force India.

[Koz]

McLaren will not have a miracle revival and will be where Ferrari are this year, but Alonso is Alonso.

Ferrari will have a much better car courtesy of Allison, they will fight RBR for second.

Williams and Mclaren for 4th.

TR > FI = Lotus > Sauber

[pob]

1. Mercedes

continue their dominance with an even greater gap to the rest

2. Lotus/Enstone

rejuvenated under Mercedes engines and new design concept

3. Williams

similar speed to Enstone, but once again miss out on many points due to tactical mistakes

4. McLaren

start the season slowly, but rapidly improve through the year taking a surprise win in a wet Brazilian Grand Prix

5. Force India/Team Astana

Start the season strongly with a podium in Australia, but drop off to the midfield before money issues finally mean Hulkenburg is dropped in favour of Juncadella after Astana buy a controlling share in the team.

6. Red Bull

entering a period of decline they drop to the midfield, although the intrateam battle between Ricciardo, Kvyat and Verstappen in a 3rd car is a big talking point for the season. Ricciardo loses his smile after several acrimonious battles with Kvyat.

7. Ferrari

Vettel occasionally in the points but Raikkonen and a third car containing Marciello rarely trouble the scoreboard

8. Toro Rosso

Lynn regularly mixes it with the drivers on the senior team; Gasly disappoints

9. Sauber/Audi (Saudi?)

Audi buy into Sauber over the winter, but 2015 is a development year for them. 0 points again.

10. Marussia/Manor Racing/AJG

Make it to the grid in Australia, but after arguing with Bernie over prize money, their trucks are refused entry to the circuit at the Spanish Grand Prix. The team is then bought out by Grahame Chilton who renames the team and places his other son Tom in the 2nd seat alongside Max Chilton.

11. Forza Rossa

With a car that looks suspiciously very similar to the 2014 Caterham, Forza Rossa shock everyone in testing with amazing speed, but it's proven to be false in the opening round when they don't make the 107% rule. The team folds before the 2nd race.

[kfzmeister]

I'm sure Mercedes will be the team to beat. Read some comments above about Ferrari/ Allison's package possibly 2nd? I think this is wishful thinking. I read an article a while back that suggested that the Ferrari could actually be slower next year.
I do like the McLaren race form lately and think that they could make a step in the right direction next year. Even though there have only been a few engine suppliers that were dominant in their first year, Honda has all the resources and know-how to follow suit.
I also think that RB will be at the front, as usual.
Williams should be strong, but their drivers will prevent them from challenging for the title.
Lotus could also make a step in the right direction with the Mercedes PU