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  1. #101
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    With 4 races left I thought I'd drag up my Grand Prix 2 simulation season from last December and have a look at how it's compared to real life:

    Quote Originally Posted by rjbetty View Post
    So that's it - here are the final standings

    1.Hamilton - 334pts
    2.Rosberg - 245pts
    3.Bottas - 172pts
    4.Ricciardo - 162pts
    5.Alonso - 139pts
    6.Button - 125pts
    7.Kvyat - 90pts
    8.Grosjean - 73pts
    9.Massa - 72pts
    10.Vettel - 55pts
    11.Raikkonen - 50pts
    12.Maldonado - 34pts
    13.Hulkenberg - 21pts
    14.Sainz - 19pts
    15.Verstappen - 17pts
    16.Perez - 8pts
    17.Nasr - best finish 11th
    18.Ericsson - best finish 11th

    1.Mercedes - 579pts
    2.McLaren - 264pts
    3.Red Bull - 252pts
    4.Williams - 244pts
    5.Lotus - 107pts
    6.Ferrari - 105pts
    7.Toro Rosso - 36pts
    8.Force India - 29pts
    9.Sauber
    Well it was a bit of a surprise to see Hamilton win the title by 89pts, yet given that in real life, Vettel sits 66pts down with Rosberg 73pts down - amazingly, this could actually happen. Rosberg has indeed been unluckier than Hamilton but only by 1dnf.

    Bottas and Ricciardo finishing 3rd and 4th was optimistic indeed, though I did get it right that the Williams driver finished ahead of the RBR driver this season. However that is nothing compared to Alonso and Button 5th and 6th - and 2nd in the WCC - a pipe dream as they sit in a distant 9th on 19pts, looking likely to finish there.

    Williams actually finished behind Red Bull because for the second season in a row, the game didn't seem to like Massa much and he just couldn't gather any big finishes.

    Grosjean and Maldonado's points are actually not that different to real life. Grosjean got 2 podiums instead of 1 but otherwise they have only been slightly behind how the game churned them out.

    Apart from McLaren, Ferrari were obviously the big mistake here. Vettel and Raikkonen only finished 10th and 11th in the WDC and only 6th in the WCC! This was based on their engine, rather than Renault's, actually getting slightly worse. To be fair, the Grand Prix 2 season did deal bad cards to Vettel in particular; stuff always seemed to go wrong when he was having a better race then nothing would happen when he was having a bad day. Vettel had more than his fair share of misfortune, a stark contrast to being in title contention in real life.

    Toro Rosso scored 36pts, not far off their real life tally of 45pts. However in real life, they have proved rather more competitive than in the game. Force India were way off the mark and have way more points than the 30 scored here; indeed they are on their way to a best ever 5th overall. I underestimated their ability to develop and they also got a bad deal from the game i.e. things didn't go much their way.

    Sauber have done much better in real life, scoring 36pts rather than the NONE in the game.



    Quote Originally Posted by rjbetty View Post
    And now for the performance figures, in % (which means slightly more than 1sec per lap, per percent (haha) i.e. given that an F1 lap averages about 90sec. 1% = about 1.1sec

    Qualifying
    1.Hamilton
    2.Rosberg +0.02
    3.Alonso +0.93
    4.Bottas +1.07
    5.Button +1.12
    6.Ricciardo +1.14
    7.Massa +1.26
    8.Kvyat +1.30
    9.Vettel +1.54
    10.Grosjean +1.73
    11.Raikkonen +1.80
    12.Maldonado +2.00
    13.Verstappen +2.25
    14.Sainz +2.29
    15.Hulkenberg +2.48
    16.Perez +2.69
    17.Ericsson +3.80
    18.Nasr +3.99

    Race
    1.Hamilton
    2.Rosberg +0.09
    3.Alonso +1.03
    4.Bottas +1.09
    5.Button +1.12
    6.Ricciardo +1.19
    7.Massa +1.48
    8.Kvyat +1.52
    9.Vettel +1.72
    10.Grosjean +1.73
    11.Raikkonen +2.07
    12.Maldonado +2.20
    13.Hulkenberg +2.24
    14.Perez +2.30
    15.Verstappen +2.42
    16.Sainz +2.50
    17.Ericsson +4.16
    18.Nasr +4.46

    Apart from Williams and Lotus, most performance predictions are some way off the mark.



    2016 season coming soon!
    Stay tuned for the 3rd edition of Grand Prix 2 season simulation, which will attempt to predict how the 2016 F1 season might turn out. Actually this could be a little bit like my version of FGP and I can have a go at being series promoter

    Motorsport Forums Reporter: So rjbetty what can we expect from the 2016 Grand Prix 2 season?

    RJBetty: A more professional and detailed analysis of things, including screenshots of major events. I will spread the running of the races out, so I can find time to follow events more closely in real time rather than just mostly using accelerated time to whizz through most of the races. This could also build anticipation between races.

    MFR: So when can we expect the season to begin?

    RJ: I would love to start right now! I have run several test seasons quickly. But I want this to be the best season yet - but crucuially not deviating from reality at all, or as little as I possibly can. Ideally it will run during the off season to give us something to keep interest up during the quiet winter period. I also hope that by resisting temptation to start now, we can also have all the official 2016 drivers present for the first time ever. Hopefully the remaining seats (1 Lotus/Renault, 2 Manor and 1 Haas) can all be confirmed before we start.

    MFR: The 2015 season wasn't really considered a classic. What are your hopes for this season?

    RJ: I know. However, it's pretty fair to say the real 2015 season hasn't been a classic either, so in that way it went quite well, as the all-important aim is to try and represent reality and try to keep fantasy and bias out of it as much as it's possible to.

    For 2016 I am very excited. I am sure the field will be closer. Unless Mercedes are hiding performance, although they will still be at the front all the time, things should certainly be closer overall. We can look forward to McLaren surely improving and getting in the midfield mix, the 2 exciting Toro Rosso drivers developing on, and 2 backmarker outfits who look set to nip at the heels of the more established teams at least some of the time.

    MFR: You say you have run several test seasons - do you have any spoilers and surprises you'd like to share?

    RJ: Well I don't want to reveal too much, but there have been 3 different champions, a shock winner and a couple of surprise pole positions over the seasons. Massa has finally had his chance to shine with Bottas getting all the misfortune for a change. The backmarker teams are making several Q2 appearances (and in some rare cases even Q3 when others have problems).

    MFR: Why aren't you using a more modern game, or at least Grand Prix 3 or 4?

    RJ: I did use Grand Prix 4 during the 2013 off season. The fact that it produced Perez as champion with Vettel 8th showed that apart from being an appallingly glitch game, it's just not very good for this kind of thing. I would try Grand Prix 3 but I have been unable to run it on modern systems. I have not used R-Factor because of being very short of money (however things are slowly improving here so you never know). And after almost 20 years I find Grand Prix 2 still holds up very well, and I also know this game and have more experience with this one by far.

    MFR: Thank you very much. We look forward to the 2016 preview season.

    RJ: You're welcome.
    Last edited by rjbetty; 23rd October 2015 at 05:36.
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  3. #102
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    Expecting the "field to close up". Well, classic rj.

    One thing is pretty likely - a computer game simulation either doesn't give enough variables to replicate a real season (perhaps some older games, where result "orders" are very strict); or gives them too much. That's based on when I played different PC racing games in 2000s. A certain driver "getting all the unluck", Rosberg having countless of DNFs in your 2015 simulation, etc, shows a game will thrown in lots of outliers that doesn't happen in real life. In a game HAM, ROS, VET can easily have 4 DNFs in a row, but I think it for sure won't happen in real life LOL.

  4. #103
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    As for the field "closing up"... Or gaps in general... One day I was thinking about gaps for the 2016 F1 season.

    The following expects Mercedes to be the field leader in both chassis and PU departments.

    Mercedes
    Ferrari ~0.5s
    Williams ~1.0-1.5s
    Red Bull ~1.0-1.5s (whatever the PU, it is likely to cost them 0.5-1s at least)
    Force India ~2s
    Toro Rosso ~2s (1s chassis, 1s PU)
    McLaren ~2s (0.5s chassis deficit, 1.5s PU)
    Sauber ~2.5s (2s chassis, 0.5 PU)
    Renault ~3s (2s chassis, 1s PU)
    Haas ~3.5s (3s chassis, 0.5s PU)
    Manor ~4s (4s - all chassis )

    If these were the gaps, I don't think they would have closed really... Can the midfield close on Mercedes? Then again the financial difficulties there are so big I am unsure the underfunded midfield can really up their game. Or who knows?! Sometimes underfinanced teams can also surprise and 2012 surprised many people.
    Last edited by jens; 23rd October 2015 at 12:02.

  5. #104
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    Thinking about it...

    Going by rj's "positive thinking" and expecting the gaps to close, perhaps a more optimistic projection would look like this:

    Mercedes
    Ferrari ~0.5s
    Williams ~1.0s
    Red Bull ~1.0s (unless Honda PU...)
    Force India ~1.5s
    McLaren ~1.5s
    Toro Rosso ~1.5s
    Sauber ~2.0s
    Renault ~2.0-2.5s
    Haas ~3.5s
    Manor ~4s

    The gaps of the last two still remain the same...

    I doubt FI, etc teams, have it in them to be within 1 second of Mercedes or even closer. So I consider this a pretty optimistic scenario. Of course it doesn't include outliers, i.e short circuits (like Red Bull Ring), wet conditions or some circuits/conditions, where tyres can play a huge role.

  6. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by jens View Post
    Thinking about it...

    Going by rj's "positive thinking" and expecting the gaps to close, perhaps a more optimistic projection would look like this:

    Mercedes
    Ferrari ~0.5s
    Williams ~1.0s
    Red Bull ~1.0s (unless Honda PU...)
    Force India ~1.5s
    McLaren ~1.5s
    Toro Rosso ~1.5s
    Sauber ~2.0s
    Renault ~2.0-2.5s
    Haas ~3.5s
    Manor ~4s

    The gaps of the last two still remain the same...

    I doubt FI, etc teams, have it in them to be within 1 second of Mercedes or even closer. So I consider this a pretty optimistic scenario. Of course it doesn't include outliers, i.e short circuits (like Red Bull Ring), wet conditions or some circuits/conditions, where tyres can play a huge role.
    This is pretty much how I see things right now.

    Over 2015 it does seem that pound for pound, teams are a little closer to Mercedes than they were last year. I've been trying to think of cases where under stable regs, teams will close up in performance, but then spread out again after having closed up slightly.

    Some examples could be 1988-1993. With turbos removed 1989 was certainly closer than the huge gaps of 1988. There were 29 drivers scoring points and many drivers made the podium. In 1990 it was even closer with 4 winning teams again. But I'd say certainly from 1992 if not 1991, everything spread out as teams adopted gizmos but many couldn't, or couldn't do so effectively. Then in 1993 diminishing returns seemed to kick in a bit with the gaps from front to back slightly less massive.

    2009-2013: Gaps started extremely close in 2009 but actually spread out in 2010 as top teams that got it wrong corrected themselves. Then gaps got bigger in 2011 as teams adopted Exhaust Blown Diffusers, before closing right up in 2012 as EBD was banned, then spreading out more in 2013 as the EBD effect was replicated but without breaking the rules. But even then reading between the lines, you might consider 2011 and 2013 on 'equal' terms, but 2013 was closer throughout the field then 2011 was. Also 2010 and 2012 might be considered to be equal terms, both largely without EBD or it's effect - and 2012 was much closer than 2010. So it seems there might still be an underlying closing up of the field due to diminishing returns for frontrunners under stable regs.


    It seems these 2 cases of the field actually spreading out over time were caused by the top teams getting hold of some new innovation (Gizmos in 90's, Exhaust diffusers in 10's) causing more spread in performance thru the grid as top teams were able to apply the innovations more effectively.

    It looks like unless some new innovation comes along, then the grid by default seems to gradually converge in performance as long as regs stay stable.

    So unless Merc, Red Bull, Ferrari etc find some new 'big thing' to develop, things should close up a little in the 3rd year of these regs.

    The only thing that could be an issue is disparity between works and customer engines. Sadly it looks like the toothless FIA is going to allow whatever the top teams want, not caring at all for smaller teams. My optimistic predictions are based on engine equality as in 2014.

    The rules have stated so far that every team must receive the exact specification of PU as the works team. However top teams are finding ways around this like denying teams latest software, and it looks like fuels make a huge difference with McLaren rumoured to be losing as much as 40bhp(!) in 2014 despite having the same basic engine as Merc. Mercedes are also denying customers latest engine specs this year (claiming it's about reliability even though the works team are running them). So maybe this could be the thing, like the gizmos and EBD that causes performance spread even in stable regs.
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  8. #106
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    Optimistic and Pessimistic projections for 2016

    So now I will try and imagine a grid based on engine disparities, Honda still being rubbish, finances becoming even worse for smaller teams etc. Most of this is a bit tongue in cheek so enjoy!

    DOOM AND GLOOM SCENARIO

    Mercedes
    1.Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
    2.Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) +0.30 (bigger in races)

    Rosberg is totally defeated and burnt out and is now like Webber in 2011 or 2013. He provides no challenge to Hamilton. Hamilton doesn't get a single DNF, while Rosberg gets just 1, but also in race tech problems a couple of times.

    Ferrari
    3.Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari) +0.58
    4.Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) +1.09

    Ferrari are no closer than in 2015, while Raikkonen is declining. They are still closer in races to Mercedes but Hamilton and Merc are now just too good having won 2 titles each. No challenge from behind as in 2015 leading to predictable top 3's as usual.

    Williams
    5.Valtteri Bottas (Williams) +1.24
    6.Felipe Massa (Williams) +1.42

    Williams are no closer to the front and have peaked, looking stumped as to how to progress. Bottas is grumpy at not getting a 'top' drive (is Williams so terrible?) leading to unhappiness and tensions under the surface. Massa isn't grumpy but looks forlorn and it shows in his driving. The team line up is now becoming stale. There is grumbling about still being stuck with a 2015 engine for a suspiciously long time.

    Toro Rosso
    7.Carlos Sainz (Toro Rosso) +1.42
    8.Max Verstappen (Toro Rosso) +1.47

    Running a year old Ferrari engine, which by now isn't really much faster than a Renault, Toro Rosso still do actually close up somewhat due to drivers getting quicker and other teams struggling. Performance and strategy still suck in races meaning points lost. Driver tensions escalate and they fall out. Sainz sacked at season's end, or completely demoted to no.2 causing unhappiness. Max nevertheless finishes in top 8 in championship. Sainz has terrible reliability and mistakes leading to few points.

    Red Bull
    9.Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull) +2.0
    10.Daniil Kvyat (Red Bull) +2.1

    Lumped with Honda engines (and second tier ones at that!) since they were the only company who bended to the Bernie's arm twisting. McLaren see to it that RBR are screwed as much as possible. Bitter war of words all season between Ron Dennis and Helmut Marko, with supporting roles of Horner v Bouiller. Honda prove to be totally clueless to the point of complete delusion and like Renault in 2015 have hardly improved at all. ERS is still bad and unreliable, and Honda look in no rush to fix it.

    What's more, Newey isn't much interested any more and the effects of his stepping back and Peter Prodromou's leaving are now being more keenly felt as the chassis starts to fall back a bit. They even get outperformed by McLaren quite often.
    If you thought Mateschitz and co moaned in 2015 this is the real nightmare. Even Ricciardo loses his smile and a sad Dietrich considers whether it's worth paying $400 million to cut his losses and get out of F1.


    Force India
    12.Nico Hulkenberg (Force India) +2.41
    14.Sergio Perez (Force India) +2.46

    Celebrations at finishing 5th in the 2015 WCC are short lived as the team again fail to make the even earlier winter testing. They again start the season off the pace with a 2015 car, and are forced to run de facto 2015 Mercedes engines. Vijay is now in big trouble and now the team can't even develop their way back much, like they did in 2015. Prize money from their 2015 keeps them going, plus Perez's sponsor money, but things getting a bit more frugal. Hulkenberg goes completely off the boil and loses confidence, causing Vijay to criticise him in public. Relations go downhill from there and no-one is surprised when Hulk leaves F1 for the WEC at the end of the season, perhaps even earlier. Team still finish at least 7th in the WCC due to shrewd racecraft etc.

    McLaren
    11.Fernando Alonso (McLaren) +2.24
    15.Jenson Button (McLaren) +2.51

    Well even in a nightmare scenario it's better than 2015, but not by a huge amount. Ron Dennis gets unhappy at Honda's lack of progress and Alonso continues to have his patience tested with more radio outbursts. Semi-regular minor points ensue. The only saving grace is that Red Bull are hardly much better and Ron is satisfied at Alonso making the difference on several occasions. They lose 1 or 2 good opportunities through unreliability and misfortune. Jenson loses interest, with some qualifying failures again making a bigger gap to Alonso, and fades into that faintly mediocre mode he sometimes go in. He retires at the end of the season.

    Sauber
    Another team struggling financially but doing ok enough to survive. They miss the first test. Chassis doesn't close on Mercedes much at all and they are stuck with a 2015 spec PU. At least drivers are more experienced and quicker, but still don't make the most of their opportunities.

    14.Felipe Nasr (Sauber) +2.48
    16.Marcus Ericsson (Sauber) +2.79

    Renault
    The worst case scenario is Renault don't take over and the team fold altogether. Or they continue as Lotus but are REALLY in a mess. They miss most of winter testing with an unprepared car. The Renault engine is still poor, and drivers suck. They really are nowhere much all season, and points are few - it really is 2014 again. Their livery is an extremely dull and uninspired yellow, despite the fact Forti and Jordan proved that colour can work fantastically. Palmer wonders what he has gotten into and in this situation is nowhere all season.

    17.Pastor Maldonado +3.3
    20.Jolyon Palmer +4.1

    Haas
    The Dallara chassis lacks downforce terribly. Gene Haas turns out to be clueless and Grosjean wonders "Mon ami, what 'ave I gotten myself into?" before glancing over at Renault and realising maybe things aren't so bad. Gutierrez after a year out is timid as ever, and looks out of his depth. There are no points but the team do beat Manor on countback of best results.

    18.Romain Grosjean +3.7
    22.Esteban Gutierrez +4.3

    Manor
    Despite Williams and Force India getting Merc hand-me-down PUs, Manor do indeed at least get something more up to date along with fuels. Team struggle to make their bills though, but do survive on goodwill for a while. Rookie drivers unable to make most of package and they miss out on some good opportunities. As a result they finish 11th in the WCC. They score no points. Bernie continues his vendetta against the team.

    19.Pascal Wehrlein +3.8
    21.Alexander Rossi +4.3
    Last edited by rjbetty; 29th October 2015 at 21:11.
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  10. #107
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    And now the optimistic 2016 season!

    1.Mercedes
    They still win and Hamilton still wins and beats Rosberg but only after a mathematical three-way fight taken to the last race. There are some DNFs due to the team having to push the envelope a bit to keep ahead of Ferrari.

    1.Lewis Hamilton
    2.Nico Rosberg +0.12

    2.Ferrari
    Ferrari have closed right up and in races Vettel is arguably maybe the quickest. He wins several races and remains in real contention most of the way after a slightly off start with a DNF in Malaysia. Seb either wins the title or comes so close that he would have won it if not caught in traffic during a crazy Brazilian Grand Prix. Kimi takes the most popular win of the season somewhere, and maybe adds another. He is consistently in the top 4 with a string of podiums and remains in outside title contention, only mathematically falling out in the final races.

    3.Sebastian Vettel +0.30
    6.Kimi Raikkonen +0.71

    3.Red Bull
    Red Bull continue with Renault who make quite a big improvement. Drivers each claim a pole position and a race victory.

    4.Daniel Ricciardo +0.60
    5.Daniil Kvyat +0.69

    4.Williams
    Massa claims a surprise pole in Canada and both drivers score podiums. Bottas delivers on his promise to be more aggressive and challenges the Red Bulls in the WDC.

    7.Valtteri Bottas +0.74
    8.Felipe Massa +0.86

    5.McLaren
    Honda are much improved and Alonso makes it through to Q3 in Melbourne. Peter Prodromou's first full design for McLaren is a neat treat and the team nip at the heels of Williams and Red Bull all season.

    10.Fernando Alonso +1.04
    12.Jenson Button +1.24

    6.Toro Rosso
    With a customer Ferrari engine and more experienced and faster drivers, plus some more chassis gains, Toro Rosso are a fixture in the top 10 all season, with a few top 3 grid slots. They aren't as quick in races but Max Verstappen grabs 2 podiums and picks up points in more races than not to do a Vettel 2008 and finish in the top 10 in the WDC. Sainz still impresses anyway.

    9.Carlos Sainz +1.04
    11.Max Verstappen +1.10

    7.Force India
    Perez in particular continues to shine and picks up a superb 2nd place in Monza having qualified 3rd on the grid.

    13.Nico Hulkenberg +1.38
    14.Sergio Perez +1.54

    8.Sauber
    Drivers improve and still manage a pretty good tally even though other teams have surpassed them.

    15.Felipe Nasr +1.74
    18.Marcus Ericsson +2.04

    9.Renault
    A transitional year but still able to impress on occasion.

    16.Pastor Maldonado +2.02
    21.Jolyon Palmer +2.57

    9.Haas
    The team impress straightway with Grosjean qualifying 14th in Melbourne. It's no fluke as he makes Q2 several times over the season, although there are some back row starts too. In some races Grosjean is very competitive indeed, running up in the top 10.

    17.Grosjean +2.03
    20.Gutierrez +2.53

    10.Manor
    With a Mercedes engine + the works, a definitive 2016 chassis under the guidance of Bob Bell, and support from Williams and Mercedes, Manor are one of the feel good stories of F1. Several Q2 appearances, and performing very well indeed at some circuits. They sometimes run in the top 10 after starts and are able to hold position for a good while.

    19.Pascal Wehrlein +2.51
    20.Alexander Rossi +2.98
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  12. #108
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    My Imaginary average 2016 grid

    1. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes - *
    2. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes +0:00.13
    3. Sebastian Vettel - Ferrari +0:00:35
    4. Kimi Raikkonen - Ferrari +0:00:69
    5. Valterri Bottas - Williams +0:00:97
    6. Daniel Riccardo - Red Bull +0:01:07
    7. Felipe Massa - Williams +0:01:25
    8. Max Verstappen - Toro Rosso +0:01:39
    9. Dani Kyvat - Red Bull +0:01:42
    10. Sergio Perez - Force India +0:01:54
    11. Carlos Sainz - Toro Rosso +0:01:63
    12. Nico Hulkenberg - Force India +0:01:77
    13. Fernando Alonso - Mclaren +0:01:86
    14. Jenson Button - Mclaren +0:01:96
    15. Marcus Ericcson - Sauber +0:02:15
    16. Pastor Maldonado - Renault +0:02:32
    17. Felipe Nasr - Sauber +0:02:53
    18. Jolyon Palmer - Renault +0:02:85
    19. Romain Grosjean - Haas +0:03:59
    20. Esteban Gutierrez - Haas +0:03:87
    21. Alex Rossi - Manor +0:04:86
    22. Pascal Wehrlein - Manor +0:05:04

    No idea what these mean, but its a bit of fun
    I still exist and still find the forum occasionally. Busy busy

  13. #109
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    Great stuff! Especially the doom and gloom scenario is fun reading.

    The point about new innovative stuff, which could enlarge gaps, is good. However, these things are very hard if not impossible to predict.

    In late 1980s-early 1990s it all kicked off, when electronics and 'automization' of driving reached a new standard. It pretty much started off with Ferrari starting to use a semi-automatic gearbox in 1989. It was very unreliable and Ferraris retired a lot that year, but with any good innovation it takes time to gel properly. Williams managed to develop this stuff to an incredibly high level by 1992-93, when you could say almost everything was at least semi-automatic.

    These kind of innovations have a large development process. It is very hard to predict the kind of EBD stuff like Red Bull developed in 2011.

    However, now in the new power units era. Like Red Bull was the headmaster in aerodynamics, Mercedes is in engines. And I would not rule out the possibility Mercedes can develop some extra gizmo unmatched by anyone else. Like in 2014 they had the twin-turbo concept or whatever it was. I still believe Mercedes engine dept operates a level above others and they can easily have an innovation in 2016, which sees everyone else a full second per lap behind them again.
    Last edited by jens; 30th October 2015 at 14:28.

  14. #110
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    If we project driver performances, well...

    some things I would not rule out. If tyres are rubbish like in early 2013, Räikkönen may finally have some good races. It is also possible Vettel might go off the boil, like sometimes has happened. So we could see something like we saw in early 2012, when Webber surprisingly had an upper hand over Vettel. However, whatever the scenario, over a full season Räikkönen will still get beaten, just like Webber did in 2012.

    Hülkenberg may easily have a better season than Pérez again, and bounce back to his 2013/early 2014 very consistent performance periods.

    Alonso may do to Button what he did to Massa/Räikkönen, and beat him properly, after settling into the team this year. After all those years I can't doubt Alonso's ability to consistently wring the speed out of the car, while Button can easily have "a 2012", compared to an excellent 2011.

    Palmer may match Maldonado. A tad slower, but crashes less. Overall it balances out.

    Verstappen to beat Sainz again, but every young driver hits some low periods, even the biggest talents, i.e like Alonso did in 2004, or Hamilton in 2011. So Verstappen may have a rubbish performance period, where he can't deal with the hype any more and keeps crashing out (like Hulk now). However, despite a crappy period Max is still a great talent and bounces back...
    Last edited by jens; 30th October 2015 at 15:07.

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