VERY early 2015 prediction thoughts!

[rjbetty]

With 4 races left I thought I'd drag up my Grand Prix 2 simulation season from last December and have a look at how it's compared to real life:

So that's it - here are the final standings

1.Hamilton - 334pts
2.Rosberg - 245pts
3.Bottas - 172pts
4.Ricciardo - 162pts
5.Alonso - 139pts
6.Button - 125pts
7.Kvyat - 90pts
8.Grosjean - 73pts
9.Massa - 72pts
10.Vettel - 55pts
11.Raikkonen - 50pts
12.Maldonado - 34pts
13.Hulkenberg - 21pts
14.Sainz - 19pts
15.Verstappen - 17pts
16.Perez - 8pts
17.Nasr - best finish 11th
18.Ericsson - best finish 11th

1.Mercedes - 579pts
2.McLaren - 264pts
3.Red Bull - 252pts
4.Williams - 244pts
5.Lotus - 107pts
6.Ferrari - 105pts
7.Toro Rosso - 36pts
8.Force India - 29pts
9.Sauber

Well it was a bit of a surprise to see Hamilton win the title by 89pts, yet given that in real life, Vettel sits 66pts down with Rosberg 73pts down - amazingly, this could actually happen. Rosberg has indeed been unluckier than Hamilton but only by 1dnf.

Bottas and Ricciardo finishing 3rd and 4th was optimistic indeed, though I did get it right that the Williams driver finished ahead of the RBR driver this season. However that is nothing compared to Alonso and Button 5th and 6th - and 2nd in the WCC - a pipe dream as they sit in a distant 9th on 19pts, looking likely to finish there.

Williams actually finished behind Red Bull because for the second season in a row, the game didn't seem to like Massa much and he just couldn't gather any big finishes.

Grosjean and Maldonado's points are actually not that different to real life. Grosjean got 2 podiums instead of 1 but otherwise they have only been slightly behind how the game churned them out.

Apart from McLaren, Ferrari were obviously the big mistake here. Vettel and Raikkonen only finished 10th and 11th in the WDC and only 6th in the WCC! This was based on their engine, rather than Renault's, actually getting slightly worse. To be fair, the Grand Prix 2 season did deal bad cards to Vettel in particular; stuff always seemed to go wrong when he was having a better race then nothing would happen when he was having a bad day. Vettel had more than his fair share of misfortune, a stark contrast to being in title contention in real life.

Toro Rosso scored 36pts, not far off their real life tally of 45pts. However in real life, they have proved rather more competitive than in the game. Force India were way off the mark and have way more points than the 30 scored here; indeed they are on their way to a best ever 5th overall. I underestimated their ability to develop and they also got a bad deal from the game i.e. things didn't go much their way.

Sauber have done much better in real life, scoring 36pts rather than the NONE in the game.

And now for the performance figures, in % (which means slightly more than 1sec per lap, per percent (haha) i.e. given that an F1 lap averages about 90sec. 1% = about 1.1sec

Qualifying
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.02
3.Alonso +0.93
4.Bottas +1.07
5.Button +1.12
6.Ricciardo +1.14
7.Massa +1.26
8.Kvyat +1.30
9.Vettel +1.54
10.Grosjean +1.73
11.Raikkonen +1.80
12.Maldonado +2.00
13.Verstappen +2.25
14.Sainz +2.29
15.Hulkenberg +2.48
16.Perez +2.69
17.Ericsson +3.80
18.Nasr +3.99

Race
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.09
3.Alonso +1.03
4.Bottas +1.09
5.Button +1.12
6.Ricciardo +1.19
7.Massa +1.48
8.Kvyat +1.52
9.Vettel +1.72
10.Grosjean +1.73
11.Raikkonen +2.07
12.Maldonado +2.20
13.Hulkenberg +2.24
14.Perez +2.30
15.Verstappen +2.42
16.Sainz +2.50
17.Ericsson +4.16
18.Nasr +4.46

Apart from Williams and Lotus, most performance predictions are some way off the mark.



2016 season coming soon!
Stay tuned for the 3rd edition of Grand Prix 2 season simulation, which will attempt to predict how the 2016 F1 season might turn out. Actually this could be a little bit like my version of FGP and I can have a go at being series promoter

Motorsport Forums Reporter: So rjbetty what can we expect from the 2016 Grand Prix 2 season?

RJBetty: A more professional and detailed analysis of things, including screenshots of major events. I will spread the running of the races out, so I can find time to follow events more closely in real time rather than just mostly using accelerated time to whizz through most of the races. This could also build anticipation between races.

MFR: So when can we expect the season to begin?

RJ: I would love to start right now! I have run several test seasons quickly. But I want this to be the best season yet - but crucuially not deviating from reality at all, or as little as I possibly can. Ideally it will run during the off season to give us something to keep interest up during the quiet winter period. I also hope that by resisting temptation to start now, we can also have all the official 2016 drivers present for the first time ever. Hopefully the remaining seats (1 Lotus/Renault, 2 Manor and 1 Haas) can all be confirmed before we start.

MFR: The 2015 season wasn't really considered a classic. What are your hopes for this season?

RJ: I know. However, it's pretty fair to say the real 2015 season hasn't been a classic either, so in that way it went quite well, as the all-important aim is to try and represent reality and try to keep fantasy and bias out of it as much as it's possible to.

For 2016 I am very excited. I am sure the field will be closer. Unless Mercedes are hiding performance, although they will still be at the front all the time, things should certainly be closer overall. We can look forward to McLaren surely improving and getting in the midfield mix, the 2 exciting Toro Rosso drivers developing on, and 2 backmarker outfits who look set to nip at the heels of the more established teams at least some of the time.

MFR: You say you have run several test seasons - do you have any spoilers and surprises you'd like to share?

RJ: Well I don't want to reveal too much, but there have been 3 different champions, a shock winner and a couple of surprise pole positions over the seasons. Massa has finally had his chance to shine with Bottas getting all the misfortune for a change. The backmarker teams are making several Q2 appearances (and in some rare cases even Q3 when others have problems).

MFR: Why aren't you using a more modern game, or at least Grand Prix 3 or 4?

RJ: I did use Grand Prix 4 during the 2013 off season. The fact that it produced Perez as champion with Vettel 8th showed that apart from being an appallingly glitch game, it's just not very good for this kind of thing. I would try Grand Prix 3 but I have been unable to run it on modern systems. I have not used R-Factor because of being very short of money (however things are slowly improving here so you never know). And after almost 20 years I find Grand Prix 2 still holds up very well, and I also know this game and have more experience with this one by far.

MFR: Thank you very much. We look forward to the 2016 preview season.

RJ: You're welcome.