My Past F1 Predictions

[journeyman racer]

- It was half way through this season that the Ferrari juggernaut started barrelling along.

- An unbelievable lack of form from Hakkinen, that was compounded by the mechanical problem on the last lap denying him a certain win in Spain.

- The re-emergence of Williams. 4 wins was good. Ralf had a good win over his brother in Canada. The emphatic display of BMW power at Hockenheim. Montoya's first win in Italy (a bit anti-climactic of the back of 9/11). Could've been 5, with JPM leading comfortably before Verstappen cannoned into him.

[rjbetty]

The time gaps had opened out quite a bit in 2001 from 2000. For example, Alesi's Prost averaged about +1.865sec off in 2000 I think, and was only 18th best, yet in 2001, it was about +2.4sec, yet this was an improvement to 14th overall. Still I found the season interesting enough and liked it.


For 2002, having now realised in 2001 that new regulations cause big gaps between teams to open out (2001 was a bit Noah's ark so to speak), which always closed up gradually over subsequent season of no major rule changes.

This was the theory I always believed anyway - and amazingly it's only since last year I'm re-evaluating this!

Because of the stable regs for 2002, I expected a closing up in the field over the previous season - therefore it would be more competitive and interesting.



MY EXPECTED AVERAGE QUALIFYING 2002, BEFORE SEASON
1.M.Schumacher (Ferrari)
2.Montoya (Williams) +0.20
3.R.Schumacher (Williams) +0.27
4.Coulthard (McLaren) +0.40
5.Barrichello (Ferrari) +0.44
6.Fisichella (Jordan) +0.64
7.Raikkonen (McLaren) +0.71
8.Trulli (Renault) +0.97
9.Heidfeld (Sauber) +1.00
10.Massa (Sauber) +1.16
11.Panis (BAR) +1.20
12.Button (Renault) +1.24
13.Irvine (Jaguar) +1.24
14.Frentzen (Arrows) +1.24
15.Villeneuve (BAR) +1.26
16.Sato (Jordan) +1.26
17.de la Rosa (Jaguar) +1.47
18.Bernoldi (Arrows) +1.64
19.Salo (Toyota) +2.00
20.Webber (Minardi) +2.24
21.McNish (Toyota) +2.42
22.Yoong (Minardi) +3.01


FERRARI
No huge doubts over which team and driver would be the best again. Barrichello disappointed me in 2001, being a huge +0.560sec off Schumacher. This seemed due to the new wings making cars harder to drive, causing the gaps between the elite drivers and the good to open out. This shattered my illusion of Barrichello being THAT good. He could be that good, but only occasionally. So for this year I expected him to improve slightly, but basically more of the same.

MCLAREN
There was a great noise about this being DC's year, and that Adrian Newey had built a monster. But while I was wary of a McLaren comeback for 2001, I never saw it this time. I liked DC at this time - he had come on very well from 98-99, but just could not envisage a title challenge, though I thought maybe 2 wins. As for Kimi, in my bad understanding, even though he had done very well at Sauber, I thought in a higher team and driver, he would lag behind Coulthard as his tender inexperience started to show. But he would still be highly impressive considering his inexperience, though I did expect this, plus an ultra-competitive midfield would cause him to qualify 13th once or twice in the season, maybe even a 17th somewhere. I predicted and 24pts and somehow felt he would retire from most races, and maybe win 1 race depending. (got the pts and retirements spot on!)

WILLIAMS
Now this was an interesting one. With Montoya hugely impressing me in the back half of 2001, plus his giant reputation (also pedalled by Nigel Roebuck in Autosport most weeks) which I largely agreed with at the time, I saw Montoya challenging for the title, winning several races, and being a certainty for 2nd. This was very exciting at the time. I thought R.Schumacher would also do well, but like 2000 compared to 1999, this season would have a little less shine than the preceding one. I still saw him beating Barrichello to 3rd, and Williams building on the promise of 2001.

SAUBER
Being very fond of Sauber, their 2001 stunned me and I loved seeing them so competitive. I rated their car and designer Sergio Rinland very highly indeed. He had sadly left after a disagreement, but I hoped his influence would come to bear on the 2002 car. Therefore I imagined the team building on 2001 and being very strong indeed, fighting Renault tooth and nail for 4th. In my earlier predictions before 2001 ended, Raikkonen seemed to be staying on, and Rinland talked about a possible victory. In a GP2 season, Kimi managed to win an attritional Canada when it all went his way!

JORDAN
I was very excited about Jordan and expected fairly big things from them. My perception of Jordan was still based on 98-99 being a very strong team able to take the fight to the elite, but things had just not gone their way in 2000-2001. Now they had Eghbal Hamidy on board as aerodynamicist. I rated this guy massively for the reason that my understanding was he played a major part on the 1999 Stewart and the 2000 Arrows (which set top speed trap times repeatedly with a Supertec engine). And now he was going to work his magic for Jordan! What's more, I thought Honda were coming up with a powerful engine, as much as 840bhp. Now you can understand why I was excited and rating them highly. I thought this car could be a beast in a straight line, and saw very strong performances happening behind the top 2 or 3 teams. Even more so when the EJ12 looked very fast in testing - I was so excited!

Even better, Jordan had announced a major new sponsorship deal with DHL. In my Grand Prix 2 seasons, I painted my own Jordan in it's usual yellow, but with white DHL sidepods. I loved the look of it - not wanting to blow my trumpet but I liked it more than the actual still-full-yellow livery. I wish I still had these designs to show now!

Even though I was disappointed Fisi wasn't kept on at Renault, I didn't mind much as I never comprehended Fisi stepping into anything other than a car which would be better than the Renault, at least for 2002... As for the 2nd driver, by now I was running Grand Prix 2 seasons well before the preceding year ended, and at various times had Jean Alesi and Justin Wilson in the 2nd seat before Sato. As Sato was coming straight from F3, I thought his inexperience would cause him to average +0.62sec off Fisi, despite how highly rated he was having just won the British F3 title.

In fact, it was only as 2003 went on I started to realise Jordan wasn't really a top team if ever...




BAR
Wasn't expecting a huge amount here really. One of the things I was most looking forward to for 2002, if you look at the qual times above, was just how amazingly tight and competitive the midfield would be, especially from 10th-16th, covered by little more than half a tenth! BAR were to be right in this mix, with them and the other teams usually qualifying anywhere from 5th to 18th, with it being something of a lottery who would be where each race!

One of the biggest talking points of 2001 for me was the impression Olivier Panis made, especially as his qualifying average was actually 0.009sec FASTER than Villeneuve! In hindsight, I got too overexcited and unbalanced, but at the time I had Olivier continuing to impress, and pull out a very small gap over JV who would still do well. Overall, the team would have their good days, right up in the top 5-8, but plenty more well in the midfield. On the whole, ok but not great.



RENAULT
Another exciting one. One of the harder ones to quantify how well they would go, but I eventually decided fighting tooth and nail with Sauber, being slightly quicker, but it coming down to circumstances as to who would score more points. More likely Renault I thought. I thought they would have higher highs than Sauber where both drivers would qualify 4th a few times maybe, but lower lows as their engines may cause Button in particular to have a day or two around 18th-20th. In my first GP2 seasons, I had Prost with Verstappen and Tarso Marques. Sometimes they would bump Button down to start 21st on a bad day. For the record the 13th team was Phoenix-TWR with awful 650bhp(!)engines, and Enge and Mazzacane driving.

Fairly unreliable cars I thought Renault may be, though scoring maybe 2-3 podiums, including a 2nd!

Very exciting was what was their colour scheme going to be?!!! This caused huge anticipation for me, and while I was waiting, I designed my very own for the game according to my best knowledge. I was proud of this one as I had the blue Mild Seven remaining. But only on the engine cover and along the monocoque. All else was similar to their 1985 car, white black and yellow. I suppose now I think about it, it was (totally unintentionally) very similar to the 1997 Minardi* with Renault branding. And not to sound immodest again, but I liked it better than the actual colour scheme, even though I was very fond of that. I wish I still had this to show here, I was pleased with it...

*http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...anada_1997.jpg - and Jarno Trulli's driving it too!

[jens]

Interesting, rjbetty. I think had I made a prediction for 2002, it would have looked very similar to yours... With perhaps the difference that it would have perhaps seen bigger time gaps as I was very wary of expecting any other team outside the "big 3" close to them. And perhaps expected Toyota to be around Jaguar and Arrows group.

About the Jordan thing. Several people here have mentioned that after 1999 they expected Jordan to be a top(ish) team for some time.

I recall a discussion from about Autumn 2001. I was obviously a Trulli fan and after switching from Jordan to Renault I was pondering, what does it mean. Initially I was disappointed, because Benetton had been rubbish all year and while Jordan was very unreliable, it at least had speed to compete for points. But the people, who I were discussing with, told that Trulli made the right choice. Because Renault was on an upward-swing, while Jordan seemed like a sinking ship. It was thought Trulli would gain more from the career switch than Fisichella.

After that I realized this way of thinking really made sense. Renault indeed seem almost certain of emerging somewhere behind the top 3 teams and Jordan (and BAR) were pretty iffy. Also Honda seemed incompetent. They had quite unreliable engines at the time and I didn't believe they can make great engines. In the end I was pretty relieved Trulli left Jordan, because to be honest I was fed up of Trulli DNFing all the time and Jordan being unreliable in both 2000 and 2001. 2001 was a pretty hard year as a Trulli fan. I think he DNF-d from like 8 races during a 9-race-period. We remember Montoya's appalling 2001 or Räikkönen's 2002 reliability, but Trulli's was pretty similar.

But I certainly expected more from Jordan than what they managed in 2002. I think from Fisichella I would have expected something like I had seen from him around 1998-2000. A couple of podiums (or at least one podium) from wet races or street circuits. Or certainly from Montreal, where he always seemed to get a podium.

Edit: Fisichella always seemed to be the kind of driver, who - even if the car is average - somehow gets at least one podium every year either with the help of attrition, weather or in Monaco/Canada. So I thought he'd nick something somewhere again. While Trulli sadly to me seemed one, who gets lots of 4ths and 5ths, but always misses out of podium and whenever is on course to podium, misses out due to reliability issues (Monaco 2000).

[jens]

The time gaps had opened out quite a bit in 2001 from 2000. For example, Alesi's Prost averaged about +1.865sec off in 2000 I think, and was only 18th best, yet in 2001, it was about +2.4sec, yet this was an improvement to 14th overall. Still I found the season interesting enough and liked it.

I just recently re-watched some of the old qualifying gaps on Wikipedia. I hadn't realized, how close the whole midfield actually was in 2000, right from 3rd team Williams down to everyone bar Minardi. They were regularly within a single second. And Prost, who scored 0 points all in all, could on a good day outqualify Williams on a bad-day. I just realized Williams qualified only 18th and 19th in Austria, didn't remember that! It was pretty remarkable. But obviously teams like Williams were more complete and consistent and reliable and had also more experience and know-how to capitalize on point-scoring opportunities better.

From that point of view in 2001 gaps were bigger. I think at least partly influenced by tyres, because Jordan, BAR and Sauber were all running on Bridgestones, so shifting to the upper half of midfield into the role of regular points-contenders. The Michelin-shod Jaguar, Prost and Benetton all dropped backwards and rarely scored except later in the season. The obvious exception was Williams, who simply managed to improve their package massively and BMW designed the most powerful engine of all that year, while in 2000 they were still average.

[journeyman racer]

2002

Up til that point, I had seen a lot of processional races. A lot of races where a driver I didn't like, had won. A lot of processional races, where a driver I didn't like, had won. But I never complained. Not once in 12-14 years of watching F1. That's just how life goes.

But 2002 was a whole other story. Consider the races are on late at night here. I distinctly remember lap 22 of the Belgian GP.

"Lap 22! When is this **** going to end???"

It was the first time I EVER thought like that about a GP, or any race. Afterwards, when it suited, the thought and act of skipping watching a race, became less of a big deal.

It didn't break me. But it did give me a solid dent.

[steveaki13]

2003 was a season more than almost any other arrived with me in a absolute fervour. Only 1998 I remember had seen such excitement over rule changes, but that was ruined by Mclaren lapping the field.

Anyway 2003 we had Qualification changes and single lap qualifying meaning we were to see every driver have their go, which in previous years didnt happen. The whole weekend format changed as did sporting rules and regs and the damp Australian GP start made it even better.

Ferrari - Despite all that I said above my heart sank when Ferrari had a 7 second lead after 1 lap. I dont know if any of you remember that, but due to dampness and battling for 3rd backwards Ferrari had a 7 second lead after lap 1 and 11 after lap 2. I guessed that they would dominate again like 2002, but thinks soon changed and I remember the Ferrari falling apart as the Australian GP went on. Anyway I was truly hoping someone would win the title ahead of the Ferrari and I believe it may have had, but for Schumi and Bridgestones wet win in the US GP. It was in fact one of my favourite seasons in F1 since 1989 of which I have every season.

Williams - I really hoped that after a slightly disappointing 2002 from Williams that they would have a similar car as 2001, but with better reliability. Which I guess they did in some ways, but really the 2003 Williams was the best car that team have produced since 1997. I always liked Montoya as he was exciting and he lead in Oz before spinning. Remember mid season, Williams seemed like the dominant car. Didn't they win about 4 races in a row including the German GP where Montoya won by over a minute. I cant help feeling that Michelin's poor wet weather tyres cost Montoya a shot at the title.

Mclaren - I thought they would be the third team and despite that probably being the case, they actually went into the last race in 2003 with a slim title hope. I thought DC and Raikkonen would be closer than 2002 and would mirror the Hakkinen/Coulthard days, clearly I was wrong because DC faultered and Kimi was awesome. Early season they has a 1-2 in the WDC and lead the WCC.

Renault - I dont know about anyone else, but I saw Renault as being only as good as 2002. I never saw their sudden jump to being a front runner. Alonso we all rated, but it was his first season in a decent car so I was none the wiser. While Trulli I guessed would be the same again. However after a crazy Oz race where Alonso looked good the real shock came in Malaysia. A 1-2 on the grid was a revelation to me. I never saw it coming. Then Alonso took a podium (more than either did in 2002) and Trulli came from the back to 5th. Think of 2003 and Renault now and sadly for Trulli fans I only think of Alonso really, that win in Hungary was amazing and his challenge in Canada was another highlight. They really were my surprise of the season.

BAR - They were a new team for me, I liked JB and the whole team seemed a better quality outfit. I remember them looking racier from the first races and a 4th in Austria was fanastic. I hope JB would beat JV but never imagined it would be quite so easy. That was when I lost faith in Villeneuve as ever being a top driver again honestly.
The best moments came in the last two races. Button leading for an age in US before retiring and then again leading in Japan before getting a 4th again.

Sauber - Dont remember what I expected from Sauber but it seemed like they had a decent line up so I wasnt surprised that they looked OK early on, but in truth compared to 2001 or 2002 they were not as good. I mean if not for Frentzens podium and Heidfeld's 5th in the USA they would have been behind Jordan, Jaguar and Toyota which would have been 9th in WCC.

Jaguar - Webber looked great in Quali and scored all but 1 of Jaguar's points. If Pizzonia had been a match for Mark then I believe they would have challenged BARs 26 points for 5th which was a big difference. By this stage I had given up expecting much of Jaguar. So at least Webber looked more competative than previous years.

Toyota - I expected the budget and history of Toyota in motorsport to mean they were significantly better than 2002. They were better but the new points system helped and generally they didnt impress me much. The line up they went for didnt seem to fit with the budget they had either. Da Matta and Panis were average IMO. One nice memory was Silverstone when they lead 1-2 after the priest invaded the track. I remember Da Matta doing a great job for a long time, but sadly drifted to 7th.

Jordan - The amazing Fisi win is the stand out memory of 2003 for Jordan. I thought Jordan would be similar to 2002 but again they sunk down the field. I was sad to see them racing Minardi's most of the season. I thought Firman did a decent job compared to the highly rated Fisichella. I guess we saw it as the beginning of the end of Jordan in 2003.

Minardi - Remember that in 2003 Minardi had a really could car and had one of the their better seasons despite no points. I remember the first few races Wilson kept leaping from the back into the top 10 and racing faster cars early on. Then they were often battling faster cars. One of the best races was European GP, when Minardi, Jordan, Heidfeld and Villeneuve all battled away for about 10 laps and it was one of the best battles of the season. Then who can forget the drying Friday Qualifying when they finished 1st and 3rd. with Verstappen topping the first session ever for a Minardi.

All in all I rate 2003 as one of the better seasons I have watched and the 2003 British GP as one of my top 5 races I have ever seen.


Its amazing how much you can remember about 10 years ago once you start thinking back. Its great fun to remember.

[steveaki13]

2002

Up til that point, I had seen a lot of processional races. A lot of races where a driver I didn't like, had won. A lot of processional races, where a driver I didn't like, had won. But I never complained. Not once in 12-14 years of watching F1. That's just how life goes.

But 2002 was a whole other story. Consider the races are on late at night here. I distinctly remember lap 22 of the Belgian GP.

"Lap 22! When is this **** going to end???"

It was the first time I EVER thought like that about a GP, or any race. Afterwards, when it suited, the thought and act of skipping watching a race, became less of a big deal.

It didn't break me. But it did give me a solid dent.

Only once I can remember really losing it with F1 and that was last season in the middle of the Monaco GP. Normally one of my favourites but last years first 40 laps of cruising around got me going. Luckily I calmed down and watched again.

I always love F1 and while I find this season and the last 4 less that classic. I still enjoy it.

[rjbetty]

Yeah Jens, I always remembered the competitive midfield in 2000. 5th-20th was anyone's guess pretty much each race!

Hmmm yes it did seem to be the Michelin teams that went down in 2001. If there's any truth in that, then Williams' 2001 was even more impressive. It was also the new regs, since McLaren, Jordan, BAR and Arrows all went backwards too.



2002 CONTD

Now I remember it, my early 2002 Renault had blue Mild Seven on the sidepods as well as the engine cover and monocoque. The rest of my car was Renault Black White and Yellow! And early on I had them 6th in the WCC thru unreliability, behind Jordan and Sauber.



JAGUAR
Jaguar had been very disappointing, but I expected a decent step forward for 2002, though others would too. But then Irvine said he was very pleased as the windtunnel tests had gone very well. He even said 2002 would be pretty much what 2000 should have been - that means beating Jordan etc to 4th overall! This made me very happy but despite it being unusual for Irvine to be so positive, I couldn't picture them being that good. Still I saw them having an improved year and scoring more points, both drivers able to run well in the top 10 on several days, though being down the back on others due to how tight the field was.



ARROWS - COSWORTH
One of the main points I anticipated for 2002 was how would Arrows fare? I couldn't wait and was very hopeful of possibly some fantastic performances at times, and a very strong season overall. With Cosworth engines a major coup, and probably worth almost 1sec per lap over the Asiatechs(?) plus a far better driver than Verstappen in Frentzen, who was good enough to make good use of the car, my hopes were high, possibly even very high indeed. With the big jump forwards in 2000 still very fresh in my mind, I anticipated another big one, and maybe an even more competitive year this time with a driver who could capitalise.

Even better was that the 2002 chassis would enjoy input from Sergio Rinland, a designer I rated VERY highly following the 2001 Sauber. I pretty much saw Arrows as a Sauber chassis with Jaguar's engines, driven by Frentzen. Therefore I saw him right up there in the mix having a very strong season, though very unreliable.

As for Bernoldi, he wasn't the best driver ever, but I liked him and respected his ability from F3000 where following 1999 scoring just once (5th at Hockenheim where he always seemed to go well) and being well down the pack, in 2000 he was suddenly right up there, always very fast and consistent in quali, even possibly the best one out there, though his races were terrible - and he had shocking mechanical misfortune, robbing him of 2 victories in a row.

I liked him for he always seemed a trier, and without having ideas above his station. He always tried his best and actually raced very well in his underpowered chassis at times in 2001. I was very much looking forward to seeing improved performance from both him and the car, and could see him qualifying in the top 10 a couple of times.



MINARDI - ASIATECH
I naively had high hopes for Minardi. A nice new chassis, Asiatech engines which I saw as a huge step, and a good budget by their standards. 2002 was looking pretty good. At the time I rated Webber as he was another driver who much impressed me in F3000 for Paul Stoddart's team, having expected just a small number of points, he scored multiple podiums to 3rd in the title. He was also very fast and blitzed Mari Haberfeld at Super Nova in 2001.

However, Mark had ended up a distant 2nd to Justin Wilson in the 2001 F3000 championship. At this time I rated Wilson very highly, as a great talent and ahead of Webber. I saw Webber as good but didn't understand how good he was. At the time I wouldn't have tipped him to win 9 races. As for Alex Yoong, the Malaysian was someone I rated highly: There was a huge fuss about him testing only 0.04sec off Alonso at Monza 2001. I also had in mind he qualified 16th in a 36 car field at Spa F3000 1999 for rubbish team Monaco Motorsport. So I saw Yoong as talented, and had him only +0.7 off Webber.

With the new chassis and Asiatech engine, I hoped Minardi would be only just over 2sec off the pace, because I didn't want to believe they would lag miles behind. I also didn't want to believe the loss of Gustav Brunner would have any impact though I knew deep down it would have a massive one sadly, just when they were getting a better engine...!



TOYOTA
Another very interesting unknown. I long looked forward to Toyota's arrival to make a 24 car grid! Sadly the timing meant the grid was merely kept at 22. For the future I expected eventual championship success as in rallying, but for 2002 I thought they'd be nowhere but the back, only occasionally able to put in plucky performance up in the midfield. I thought they probably wouldn't get any points to be honest.

Their new colour scheme was revealed the same time as Renault's, and I loved it. It looked far more the real deal than the 2001 test livery, even though I really liked that as it had more red.

Allan McNish was a big unknown. He was a huge star in sportscars and a real Toyota man. But because of coming from another discipline, for a long time very early on I thought he would be absolutely nowhere, not even within 1sec off his teammate. However, the 2001 testing times, plus my previous experiences of Button and especially Raikkonen's debut seasons being much stronger than expected, I then thought he would do well enough to outqualify Salo 5 times and generally do well for a 1st season, especially from sportscars. However, it would still translate to mostly being at the back and having several grid slots from 21st-24th (when I was running Prost with Verstappen and Marques), but also having plucky moments to shine getting in the top 16 once in a while.



PROST - ACER
For quite some time (and also all the time on Grand Prix 2 as you have to have 26 cars) I also had Prost remaining. I naively believed Alain Prost's claim that a fairly huge aerodynamic step had been developed as an evolution of the 2001 car. I kind of knew at the time it was wishful thinking on my part, and suppose somewhere must have known it was a desperate attempt by Alain to save the team, but I believed him at the time. Even so, Prost would still suffer due to their state, so I had Verstappen just over +1.8sec off in 19th, ahead of Salo and Webber, and Marques about +2.5sec off in 23rd, a little behind McNish but some way ahead of Yoong.

I still wanted to believe Prost would have Acer (Ferrari) engines for 2002 even though there was no hope of this really.



PHOENIX - TWR
I also ran Phoenix in Grand Prix 2 even though they and Prost couldn't exist at the same time. I used a Simtek 1994 car for their livery, but imagined it with white as well as black and blue, so something similar to the F3000 DAMS from 1999-2000. Enge and Mazzacane were the drivers, though at times I changed one driver to Alonso to give them some hope of being competitive. Otherwise it was hard to see them doing better than 5sec off the pace with the awful 1999 Arrows engine... I also had Alonso at Arrows and even Sauber very early on before Frentzen or Massa were confirmed.



FINAL POINTS ESTIMATION
1.M.Schumacher - 89pts
2.Montoya - 72pts
3.R.Schumacher - 53pts
4.Barrichello - 52pts
5.Coulthard - 47pts
6.Fisichella - 24pts
7.Raikkonen - 24pts
8.Heidfeld - 16pts
9.Button - 14pts
10.Irvine - 10pts
11.Trulli - 9pts
12.Frentzen - 9pts
13.Massa - 9pts
14.Villeneuve - 8pts
15.Sato - 6pts
16.Panis - 5pts
17.de la Rosa - 3pts
18.Bernoldi - 2pts


1.Ferrari-Ferrari - 141pts
2.Williams-BMW - 125pts
3.McLaren-Mercedes - 71pts
4.Jordan-Honda - 30pts
5.Sauber-Petronas - 25pts
6.Renault-Renault - 23pts
7.Jaguar-Cosworth - 13pts
8.BAR-Honda - 13pts
9.Arrows-Cosworth 11pts


(Points approximate)

[rjbetty]

Thanks for your thoughts everyone.



2003
I didn't know what to expect with the new rules really so I ran my GP2 seasons as normal.



MY ANTICIPATED QUALIFYING GAPS (NEW RULES NOTWITHSTANDING)
1.M.Schumacher (Ferrari)
2.Barrichello (Ferrari) +0.21
3.Montoya (Williams) +0.30
4.R.Schumacher (Williams) +0.43
5.Raikkonen (McLaren) +0.45
6.Coulthard (McLaren) +0.65
7.Villeneuve (BAR) +0.97
8.Trulli (Renault) +1.00
9.Alonso (Renault) +1.16
10.Button (BAR) +1.20
11.Fisichella (Jordan) +1.36
12.Panis (Toyota) +1.40
13.Heidfeld (Sauber) +1.42
14.Frentzen (Sauber) +1.45
15.Firman (Jordan) +1.78
16.da Matta (Toyota) +1.88
17.Pizzonia (Jaguar) +2.00
18.Webber (Jaguar) +2.07
19.Wilson (Minardi) +2.36
20.Verstappen (Minardi) +2.38

FERRARI
More of the same here, but Barrichello had regained some favour with me in 2002 so I thought he'd edge a little closer.


WILLIAMS
A little better than 2002 with Montoya opening a little gap to Ralf.

MCLAREN
A real unknown. I thought with an old (and uncompetitive to boot) car they'd suck, but everyone said they were looking good, so I went with an improvement since they'd now be adapted to Michelins. Plus Mercedes had poached several BMW staff so shouldn't be lagging quite so far behind. Then the MP4-18 could boost performance. But I still had them behind Williams. Overall, DC to have an improved gap from 2002, but Kimi edging 0.2 ahead.


RENAULT
I too wasn't expecting that much but some decent improvement, but the target of 4-5 podiums looking unlikely. I thought Alonso would be closer to Trulli in qualifying than Button, but close to Button's level in races. So I underestimated him quite a bit!


SAUBER
I was very excited about Frentzen joining and returning to his 'home'. I hoped the family atmosphere would boost Frentzen like joining Jordan did, but didn't expect anything amazing, though I was looking for a strong season, and though I put him just a smidgen off Heidfeld in quali, I thought he might get slightly more points. I rated Heidfeld highly at the time even though he didn't seem WDC material. Sauber were also getting Ferrari's 2002 engine and gearbox but I didn't see this transforming them, though it would result in an improvement enabling the team to keep up with bigger/improving teams.


JORDAN-FORD
The Ford engine deal was a big thing for me, especially as Jaguar were very unhappy about it. Gary Anderson was saying the engine was substantially lighter. Plus it would be much more powerful than the 2002 Honda. Also, whereas the 2002 car was a mess, the 2003 chassis seemed simpler and more user-friendly. Actually it was probably that by now I realised Jordan weren't one of the big hitters as they appeared to be, but I expected a definite improvement as all the factors just weighed too heavily in their favour for an improvement.

However, I had become more realistic fllowing the last 3 years s had Jordan as a respectable and tidy 6th best team, with Fisi maybe able to grb a pdium or two as he does. I judged Firman against Sato, and decided with his greater experience he might be able to perform at a slightly higher level than Takuma at first, so had his gap to Fisi slightly smaller.

At first I had Massa in the 2nd Jordan seat briefly, before having Bernoldi for quite a long time. I was really hoping Eddie Irvine could get the deal but it never came off and I never expected it would, so sadly he never featured in my early line-ups. I also designed a Jordan which had a blue engine cover(!) to reflect Ford and likely minor Red Bull sponsorship. I wasn't as fond of it as I was of my 2002 DHL Jordan with white sidepods or 2002 Renault, or 2001 Benetton with more dark blue and white, but I still thought it looked nice, and different.


JAGUAR-COSWORTH
Sadly, it looked unlikely Irvine would stay on, which was a shame as he could have done a great job I'm sure. Irvine was a driver who I felt just got better and better each season, and he was forced out of F1 too early. Only 3 races ago, he had scored a podium, the only driver outside the top 3 teams to do so in 2002. It was a shame he couldn't have had a better attitude as I think it was poor leadership that caused Jaguar to say "we need a fresh break".

Anyway, Mark Webber was very promising and would be refreshing to the team. I thought he'd stay alongside Pedro de la Rosa who would help maintain continuity and be a reference for Webber to beat. I did this in GP2 having Webber evenly matched but slightly ahead of de la Rosa.

But even he went and Antonio Pizzonia was signed. At the time I still rated Pizzonia's potential very highly, even though he had been very disappointing in F3000 (8th overall in 2002 anyone?). Despite that, I expected him to come good and have a small speed advantage over Webber, though Webber to score a few more points.

I felt 2003 would be a big step towards having a tidy and respectable team and car, but the only problem being many other teams making large improvements, so even though Jaguar would not be a big mess, the way it would shake out were that they were the penultimate team ahead of Minardi, though hanging on the coat-tails of the teams ahead.


BAR-HONDA
A revolution had taken place over the winter. The team revealed an amazing lean and fast looking chassis with a livery that looked the business, this coupled with a Honda that had sorted their issues meaning a much more punchy engine. Jacques Villeneuve looked to be renewed as one of THE top drivers (I believed in how good everyone said he was at the time) and had healed his bad relationship with David Richards to some degree. This re-igniting of Jacques though appeared bad news for Jenson Button, even though I fully expected the Englishman to do a very good job for where he was at. There was a danger though that Jenson could be dominated and go a bit Massa-ey. But overall, a MUCH improved season fr both drivers appeared to lay ahead, and they would be in a position for better results and to challenge the top few teams from time to time. I was looking forward to this to say the least!


MINARDI-COSWORTH
Paul Stoddart clearly expected big things from his team for 2003, with such declarations that because of the new rules and changes to his team, Minardi could be capable of "scoring a podium. And I'm not joking." That sounded amazing, and though I had no idea how things would shake out, it seemed a little unlikely. However, several points finishes (top 6 included) beckoned in my mind.

The major reason was that Minardi had made a massive deal to run the Cosworth engines Arrows used the previous year. This would represent a massive jump in performance.

Also, the driver line-up was one that I was very excited about. Justin Wilson was billed as better than Mark Webber by the British press for beating him comfortably to the 2001 F3000 crown, and this is something I believed. Wilson looked like a great talent with a good future! Also, despite the fact that it appeared that Christijan Albers had been confirmed for the 2nd seat (I had MANY drivers in that seat in GP2 early on, including Bryan Herta!), the seat eventually went to Jos the Boss Verstappen, as I was desperately hoping it would.

In my mind, Verstappen was still a driver with big potential, as he had been very highly rated in his career. I thought both would do a little better than Webber did the previous season, by about a tenth or slightly more. Jos also seemed capable of bagging a big result at a crazy race. I had several points positions for these guys, with Wilson slightly quicker in qualifying but Verstappen getting more points, but both drivers being able to get in the midfield quite often!

Add to this that the field generally closed up a little in stable reg seasons and you can see how I got down from Webber being about 3.4sec off in 2002 to the 2003 drivers being at least 1sec quicker.


TOYOTA
I really liked Toyota at the time, and only went off them in 2006 when it became clear they were just faceless and doing nothing-special performances.

But in 2003 I was a fan and was very grateful and welcoming of them in F1, as I liked their boss Ove Andersson. I saw them obviously building on 2002, but knew about the dreaded 2nd season syndrome by then. Even so, I had them making a net gain.

What excited me was the driver line-up! At the time I rated Olivier Panis very highly and had gained much respect for him at BAR, as he had in many ways matched Jacques Villeneuve, and JV was held to be a bit of a legend. So basically I had Panis being equal in speed to the likes of Frenten or Irvine. So I thought he'd bring an instant 0.3sec benefit over Salo.

As for McNish, he had a very decent season, but the stat of only outqualifying Salo twice was highly disappointing, given that Diniz had managed several more times. He wasn't bad at all, but understandably hadn't done enough to make Toyota saw "Wow", given that there were several drivers who had their eye on that drive.

In Grand Prix 2 around Spa 2002, I ran Helio Castroneves who I was a HUGE fan of in CART. I love his helmet design and he was in the 2nd seat. Then it appeared Massa would get it (I think Pizzonia was mentioned before Jaguar signed him) but I was very pleased to see da Matta join as I really liked him in CART. Someone said he was the best driver in the world who wasn't in F1. Having won the 2002 title, he certainly seemed a candidate. I expected a definite improvement over McNish and some moments of being able to really shine, but knew from Montoya that adapting from CART is hard, so for this year gave him quite a large gap to Panis.

[jens]

My thoughts on before the 2003 season (and before winter testing, from which I actually don't remember making many conclusions anyway as I didn't take it seriously).

Ferrari/M.Schumacher to win again. They were so far above everyone in 2002 that it was hard to see them losing, even if the advantage would be a bit smaller. Didn't foresee them having some true shocks, like getting lapped in Hungary!

But behind Ferrari - based on the second half of 2002 I concluded that McLaren could become stronger than Williams again. McLaren seemed on an upward curve in late-2002. It actually proved to be the case in early 2003 before Williams developed the fastest car of the field from about Austria onwards.

So M.Schumacher as champion in 2003, but Räikkönen could offer more Magny-Cours 2002 kind of battles and end up perhaps 3rd in the championship behind Barrichello and maybe even have a shot at second. But I was still suspicious about McLaren reliability and thought this would be detrimental to Kimi's season, especially with new point system, which awards reliability. As we remember, McLaren, especially Kimi in 2002 had a pretty appalling reliability.

There was also some talk about new qualifying system and that Ralf Schumacher could show up Montoya in the new one-lap format, while Montoya had been the previous king on Saturdays by bagging five poles in a row in mid-2002! But I felt this was going to be merely part of the past for JPM now, who was going to have his hands full with Ralf and they'd be racing for like 4th and 5th positions. With fluctuations here and there of course.

Behind them I actually didn't have big expectations on Renault. I expected them to continue with the "best of the rest" tussle with perhaps Sauber going well against them with the impressive and consistent line-up of Heidfeld and Frentzen, who could bag many points for the team in the new top8 point system, which I thought would value consistent and reliable teams, which Sauber and their drivers seemed to be. I pondered if a consistent team like Sauber may even not be far off McLaren/Williams if the latter have many reliability issues and Sauber with its consistency can stay somewhat close. Well, something like what Jordan/Frentzen had done in 1999. But guess this was always a long shot.

And of course Toyota, I expected them to go much better and perhaps already finish around 5th in the constructors championship. So to achieve this it meant they were going to beat either Renault or Sauber. I didn't analyze deeper, which one - perhaps more likely Sauber still - but nevertheless I had pretty significant expectations. During 2003 Toyota actually qualified pretty well, but often had reliability issues and dropped back in races. So during 2003 I felt Toyota sort of had potential to indeed end up 5th, but didn't capitalize.

BAR and Jaguar were still very "doubtful" teams to me and I feared Jordan could drop back after losing Honda works engines for Ford customer ones. But I felt Jordan could still put in some good underdog performances and get decent points on board. They always seemed to, even with old Mugen customer engines!