Current standard of WRC drivers 2014 season

[AndyRAC]

I think VW will want to see major progress from Mikkelsen this year. I suspect they will highlight a few events were they’ll want to see Rally winning/ challenging pace. This is his final year for learning, surely? Before this year, he’d only done 500m of the Monte in 2011, so used this years Monte to learn and get experience.

[A.F.F.]

I was surprised of Meeke and Kubica based on their Monte performance. Especially Meeke did a very good job and both guys brought important points for the team.

I Guess you mean Meeke and Evans

Yes, Evans!! I was thinking about Kubica when I wrote that post

[Rallyper]

Let´s see then who the most brave driver from ERC: Juho or Mikkelsen...

[kirungi okwogera]

In the Mikko thread I was interested by the discussions around Esapekka Lappi. I'm not particularly excited by him as an individual driver yet, but I think it's interesting to see what people think the "normal" way to success is - i.e. Hanninen should've invested as a privateer earlier to do WRC rounds, Lappi is getting too comfortable as a paid driver in small championship, rallying outside Europe, etc.

Every recent top-level driver has had at least one full year in WRC early on where they were bad. If you wouldn't call them "sick dogs", at least nobody's jaw was dropping - Ogier, Neuville, Hirvonen had two - one factory and one privateer, Solberg, even Latvala had a year in the Stobart support team where he was middling. Most of them get one podium or something to show some promise, then join the frontrunners in future years. The only recent exceptions I can see are weirdly Sordo (kind of, 4 podiums in first WRC year) and surprise, surprise, Loeb in 2002 with Monte runner up and Deutschland win during a non-complete season drive.

You can talk about Mikkelsen, Meeke, Kubica, Hanninen as guys who came to WRC through an alternate route - having a longish, successful career in other championships. I'm not fully convinced this is an equivalent as it seems to take more years and nobody from IRC/ERC/SWRC/2 has been dynamite in WRC (yet!).

I think people remember Jari-Matti as 22 years old winning a WRC rally and think that instant results is what we should be seeing out of young guys: Lappi, Breen, Paddon, Evans or whoever. But they forget that a full season at world championship level seems to be the MINIMUM precursor to any decent eye-catching results, assuming a driver is talented enough to ever get them. And we can't expect another alien being like Loeb soon!

Do you guys agree with this assessment? I know further in the past it's different - Gronholm driving for 10 years before a factory drive, etc. - but this seems accurate to me for the past decade or so.

[Mirek]

Neuville came also from IRC (2 full seasons in Peugeot Belux). Ogier was successful immediately. He won his first ever WRC stage and took two podiums in his first WRC season (plenty of crashes too though). I would not speak about Kubica as having longer alternative career unless You count F1 into that. Otherwise he did only one full championship - WRC2 in 2013.

Generally I agree that You can not expect miracles in first WRC season but taking experience in WRC car is very expensive. Much more than in those alternative series. I am convinced that driving IRC/ERC gives more than driving SWRC/WRC2 due to higher level of competition and also because of recognition of overall results. Anyway it's interesting that all the recent fuss in WRC is about drivers which came from "nowhere" - Bouffier, Meeke, Kubica. I am thinking when was the last time somebody finished second in his second start with WRC car

[GigiGalliNo1]

Ogier will always come out front on days 2 and 3, running first on the roads.... Settle back down the leaderboard. He'll catch up and win. See Monte.
Mikko will win a few rounds this year - as will Sordo and Neuville.
Boufier could win a round this year!
Kubica, more practice and some podiums in the end of the year.
Paddon will impress when he does 6 rounds.
JML a win here and there.
Mikkelson will set great times!! Podium here and there..
Evans will shine but a learning year - he will support M-Sport in points.

[Rallyper]

In the Mikko thread I was interested by the discussions around Esapekka Lappi. I'm not particularly excited by him as an individual driver yet, but I think it's interesting to see what people think the "normal" way to success is - i.e. Hanninen should've invested as a privateer earlier to do WRC rounds, Lappi is getting too comfortable as a paid driver in small championship, rallying outside Europe, etc.

Every recent top-level driver has had at least one full year in WRC early on where they were bad. If you wouldn't call them "sick dogs", at least nobody's jaw was dropping - Ogier, Neuville, Hirvonen had two - one factory and one privateer, Solberg, even Latvala had a year in the Stobart support team where he was middling. Most of them get one podium or something to show some promise, then join the frontrunners in future years. The only recent exceptions I can see are weirdly Sordo (kind of, 4 podiums in first WRC year) and surprise, surprise, Loeb in 2002 with Monte runner up and Deutschland win during a non-complete season drive.

You can talk about Mikkelsen, Meeke, Kubica, Hanninen as guys who came to WRC through an alternate route - having a longish, successful career in other championships. I'm not fully convinced this is an equivalent as it seems to take more years and nobody from IRC/ERC/SWRC/2 has been dynamite in WRC (yet!).

I think people remember Jari-Matti as 22 years old winning a WRC rally and think that instant results is what we should be seeing out of young guys: Lappi, Breen, Paddon, Evans or whoever. But they forget that a full season at world championship level seems to be the MINIMUM precursor to any decent eye-catching results, assuming a driver is talented enough to ever get them. And we can't expect another alien being like Loeb soon!

Do you guys agree with this assessment? I know further in the past it's different - Gronholm driving for 10 years before a factory drive, etc. - but this seems accurate to me for the past decade or so.

Well, Gronholm wasn´t 10 yrs before full factory season, but him also struggled years before he was mature enough.

Maybe this is what MW has in mind putting Evans in WRC car this year without pressure - just learning.

@GigiGalli - You havent mentioned Meeke and Östberg? Hanninen?

We have a lot of exceptations for many drivers. it will be an exciting year to come.

[Simmi]

Mikko will win a few rounds this year - as will Sordo and Neuville.

JML a win here and there.

I'd love to believe this. You know it's a 13-round season right? One already gone.

Nothing I saw last season shows me that any of the above drivers are able to beat Ogier if he has a clean run. They are relying on mistakes, punctures etc. Sometimes that's not even enough.

What's interesting to me is what potential does the Hyundai hold that can be unlocked. I think the Fiesta and DS3 are at the end of the line.

[Rallyper]

Expectations it should be -

[Nornbugger]

Mikko will win a few rounds this year - as will Sordo and Neuville.

JML a win here and there.

I'd love to believe this. You know it's a 13-round season right? One already gone.

Nothing I saw last season shows me that any of the above drivers are able to beat Ogier if he has a clean run. They are relying on mistakes, punctures etc. Sometimes that's not even enough.

What's interesting to me is what potential does the Hyundai hold that can be unlocked. I think the Fiesta and DS3 are at the end of the line.

I can only think that GigiGallino1 is accepting Ogier as being in 1st place and the wins he speaks of is best of the rest?