2014 F1 season prediction

[AndyL]

I'm sceptical about the assumption everyone seems to be making that the "works" teams will automatically have an advantage. Because each manufacturer can only homologate a single specification of engine, there will be no engine advantage for the works teams. Even if they manage to subvert the engine freeze and sneak in performance upgrades under the disguise of "reliability," as they have in the past, they will still have to make the same changes on all the customer engines. Certainly the works teams have had the benefit of being able to influence the engine design to better fit with their chassis and aero plans, but that is by no means a conclusive advantage. The customer teams are in a much better position in this respect than Brawn were in 2009. At least they have known the parameters of the engines they need to design around for a long time.

A better assumption I think would be that the well-resourced teams will have an advantage, which would mean a big 4 rather than a big 3.

[jens]

AndyL, a fair point. I think when James Allison (?) claimed that works teams are going to have a significant advantage, he indeed meant "packaging advantage", not horsepowers or other differences in engines itself. The difference with V8 engines is that everyone got so used to V8's that even despite "reliability upgrades" everyone knew them like the back of their hands. V6 is going to be new, and teams with more in-depth knowledge (i.e factory teams) could have more of an advantage than in previous years.

But I do think that if a so-called private team can come up with an excellent chassis, they will be competitive too and not notably handicapped. Like Lotus was in 2012-13. And I am sceptical about claims that gaps could be big. I think they may be small(ish) as well, depending on the phase of the season. I think ultimately the difference in "gaps" isn't so dependant on whether we have a rule change or not, but more on the quality of the teams itself. By the end of 2013 we had had quite a stable set of rules, yet Red Bull was dominating by a bigger margin than ever before.

The main issue is, which "non-factory" team can actually come up with a top-notch package, because the three main teams we are talking about seem to be more complete teams in general and it's not just about engines - great engineering/design teams, very good drivers, experienced and proven leadership, big budgets so that they can develop efficiently. Competition is close anyway and this is where the "completeness" of a team is important - that you can eek out just a little bit more to rise above most of others and be a genuine frontrunner. McLaren is in a bit of a transition phase and regardless of whether they are "handicapped" by engines, transition phases always have at least some kind of influence - it is a state of re-building.

[RS]

I think Torro Rosso could make progress this year as their car will probably be more of a rebadged Red Bull than ever now they have the Renault drivetrain too.

[rjbetty]

Force India - Mercedes
As a team that invariably produces a solid car year in year out, Force India should be in pretty good shape in 2014. From the start, they have always improved every year in some form. Last season, they only went off the boil because the tyres were changed. They had actually designed a very strong car, and unlike other teams had actually taken into account the tyres. Therefore they had earned their advantage and it was very harsh that it should be taken from them. But it was the right thing to do as the steel belted tyres were too unsafe.

If it hadn't been for that change, plus the fact that the team committed many errors, which saw retirements from strong positions and Paul di Resta sent out of Q1 when the car was good not once, but about 4 times, Force India could most certainly have taken 5th in the WDC ahead of McLaren on merit. That would have been a fine achievement and a confirmation of what the team are capable of.

The operational errors were a real concern though, and they cost di Resta in particular many points. Adrian Sutil was a solid returnee, and actually impressed very much by being on it right away, and it was one of the biggest shames of the season to see him tumble out of the lead towards the end of the Australian GP and just get swallowed up by a mass of cars, and almost his team-mate too. Sutil did lose out a lot too early on when the car was great, but overall he fell a little short of di Resta.

It was a shame that he wasn't able to do more to prevent such a fall in Australia, but more so that he in particular went missing after the car changed mid-season. It would have been nice to see more inspirational moments, as well as avoiding his criticism of the car post season. He can consider himself fortunate to have bagged a Sauber drive, as there are more worthy candidates out there. But he did a good job. Maybe Bianchi wouldn't have banked the same points and the team could have lost 6th, who knows.

But now, in Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez who are both entering their fourth seasons, Force India can boast a line-up that could possibly be their strongest ever - and that includes the Jordan days - if you take into account where the drivers are on their development curve, and go by the performance they can actually be expected and ready to deliver for 2014.

Hulkenberg needs no introductions, and like many, I am a fan and he is one of my favourite drivers. Never once enjoying the year-on-year continuity at a team that is so important, he will have no problems settling in, especially as he already knows the team from recently. Taking into account that like Martin Brundle and Jos Verstappen, Hulk has rarely enjoyed continuity and has always had to settle into new teams (just look at Hamilton to see how hard it can be), it makes his performances maybe even more impressive.

I sing Nico's praises along with the many others who do. But interestingly in Gerhard Berger's interview, he said that Hulk was a little overhyped. Now this takes being as objective and stoic as possible, removing feelings, but despite liking Nico very much, I have thought this.

Hulkenberg is a driver who seems to have few weaknesses. He can qualify, he can race, he hoovers up points as well as showing great flair, he has a good attitude through good times and bad, and is generally one of the nicest genuine guys around. But despite all this, there is a nagging doubt that he may be A+ material, like Hamilton, maybe just A.

Hear me out! I'm just being as realistic as possible and being cautious because if it is the case, it will be found out. I have in mind Giancarlo Fisichella. In a lot of ways, Nico reminds me of him, and part of the reason I support Hulkenberg is that I believe he will go on to the be the driver I hoped Fisi would be. They are similar in that even though Fisi wasn't the all-time greatest, both drivers spent FAR too long in midfield teams while lesser drivers enjoyed the plum seats. They are both capable of amazing underdog results. And they are both among the more likeable people around (though Fisi was rattled during his Renault years, and unfortunately this maybe spilt over to an innocent person or two) - but where these two drivers will differ is that Nico will not wilt in the heat at the top; he is too strong and professional for that.

McLaren dumpee Sergio Perez joins to create an all-new line up, which truth be told was maybe a little stale in 2013. I think Perez may actually surprise some people in how close he is to Hulkenberg - in qualifying trim anyway. Do not see him as a failure, he is still a very worthy driver, and depending on how he has taken his rejection, can either be a strong driver, or sink a bit. But I don't think anyone expects him to genuinely outdo Hulkenberg at all.

If it's all able to gel, Force India should be in for a swag of points. The Mercedes is the engine to have, it appears. Maybe talk of regular podiums and even wins should be cast down for a more realistic single podium, or maybe two.



Grand Prix 2 - F1 2014 Simulation (continued)
Round 9: Britain
Row 1: Mercedes, Nico ahead
Row 2: Red Bull, Ricciardo ahead
Row 3: Ferrari, Raikkonen ahead

They finish this way except Vettel takes 3rd. Alonso was on course for 4th but was overhauled by Ricciardo. The Force India's (Hulk ahead) Grosjean and Magnussen complete the points.


Round 10: Germany - Hockenheim
A good one this.
Top 6 qualifying the same as Silverstone, but Hamilton pole and Nico 4th.
GO! Great start from Rosberg to take the lead. Trouble at the back as Massa's car is launched violently over the turn 1 exit kerb, bounding through the gravel and is out. On lap 2, Button breaks his wing and has to pit. On lap 3 Raikkonen spins! Both at the back fighting through. Raikkonen is pretty much the fastest out there today! Vettel is only 5th, then he retires lap 15. But he is still jammy in that this happened on a rare, less competitive day.

[rjbetty]

Round 10: Germany - Hockenheim (cont'd)
Rosberg eventually retires whie fighting for 2nd with Ricciardo. Magnussen scores his second 4th in three races.

Result: 1.Hamilton 2.Ricciardo 3.Alonso 4.Magnussen 5.Hulkenberg 6.Raikkonen 7.Sutil 8.Bottas 9.Grosjean 10.Maldonado


Round 11: Hungary
Another good one. A close qualifying sees Alonso edge a surprise pole ahead of the Red Bulls, Mercedes (Rosbrg ahead) and Kimi. Force India and Williams take up a poor rows 8 and 9.
Despite wildly different strategies, the top 6 finish 15sec apart! No idea who was going to win. Vettel was dominating but making more stops. Alonso made a stop then had to charge through the field. It wasn't looking good to overtake Mercedes cars on this twisty track. But somehow he eventually made it work. When Vettel pitted, Rosberg on old tyres took a slender lead. 1 sec behind, Vettel and Alonso were side by side through the first 2 turns as Vettel exited the pits! Alonso had to hold on and against the odds managed it. The strategies meant that Rosberg led, Alonso was directly behind but much quicker, and Vettel was directly behind, even much more quicker, all according to freshness of tyres. The three raced in the closing laps, but backmarkers helped each hold the other off. But Alonso got through to the lead with a few laps left. Vettel was all over Rosberg and the 3 crossed the line separated by a few secs, with Hamilton a further second or 2 behind, and Kimi just a little further, then Ricciardo a few more seconds down. Button, Vergne (who was challenging Button yet again), Grosjean and Gutierrez rounded out the points.


Round 12: Belgium
A long laps means not much chance to qualify well, and so while Hamilton and Vettel led the rest by over 1sec, Alonso, Grosjean and Perez started 16th, 17th and 19th. Maldonado made it to 6th.

Surprisingly, Raikkonen retired, but more of a shock was Vettel out! Not many retirements till halfway through when Ricciardo made it another rare Red Bull exit. Alonso spent the race making his way up from 16th. All this left Lewis Hamilton putting in the most astonishing drive of his life to almost lap the entire field, and was less than 10 sec from lapping his team-mate Rosberg in 2nd and Alonso a couple of seconds behind, both close to 2 minutes behind Hamilton!

But what's this? The first major casualties of the new regulations as there is a mass running out of fuel on the last lap. Lewis is out at the bus stop. Others fall by the wayside. It looks like no-one will complete the full laps and the result would simply be taken from the previous lap (so nothing changing) - but then the realisation that if just one person can make it across the line, they can vault from the back and win!

So this Brazil 2003 like race saw 3 drivers in the top 12 manage to cross the line. Sensationally they all jumped to the top 3 as Kevin Magnussen was the first to have enough fuel and claim a shock win, followed by Valtteri Bottas for Williams and Pastor Maldonado in the Lotus. There was no-one else so Hamilton, Rosberg and Alonso still got 4th 5th and 6th. Kobayashi did cross the line too but simply jumped from 13th to 12th as he was lapped. Button, Hulkenberg, Grosjean and Vergne completed the top 10. Remarkably, Jenson has still either finished only 4th 6th or 7th every time he's finished.


Round 13: Italy
Qualifying is close but its the usual 6, with Vettel on pole. Hamilton gets a great start. Light fuel is the way to go and Alonso and Kvyat make hay, the latter running 7th after starting 13th. But what has this guy got to do as he retires early on, again. What's this? Vettel has spun at turn 1?! Yes, it's one of those afternoons. He isn't the first by any means as now championship leader Alonso joins. Both make their way back up, but Vettel retires! Mistakes continue and it's left in the end for Kimi Raikkonen to take an immensely popular win in front of the tifosi ahead of Hamilton, both reviving their title hopes. Ricciardo also missed out and in the end just pipped Gutierrez for 10th at the end.

Valtteri Bottas took an amazing 3rd, his second podium in a row! Felipe Massa took a welcome 6th.

1.Raikkonen
2.Hamilton
3.Bottas
4.Button
5.Hulkenberg
6.Massa
7.Alonso
8.Magnussen
9.Maldonado
10.Ricciardo


Round 14: Japan
Another hard one to qualify for and get a clear lap, resulting in this top 10
1.Hamilton 2.Vettel 3.Raikkonen 4.Ricciardo 5.Button 6.Perez 7.Massa (first top 10 this season) 8.Sutil (second top 10) 9.Bottas 10.Grosjean

Title leader Alonso and contender Rosberg are only 16th and 18th (the second time in three races Alonso's started there)

In the race m Sutil is up to 4th with Raikkonen pressuring Hamilton. Alonso is up to 12th. Alonso is fast but Rosberg is even faster, the engine helping him scythe through traffic. What would have been an eventual 3rd place went bust as he crashed out, not for the first time this season. It's a tense race with Hamilton and Vettel pretty much in a race of their own. Hamilton wins. Kimi loses 3rd with a mistake but recovers 5th. Alonso gets by Ricciardo for the podium.

Result: 1.Hamilton 2.Vettel 3.Alonso 4.Ricciardo 5.Raikkonen 6.Button 7.Bottas 8.Magnussen 9.Massa 10.Sutil

[AndyL]

I'm loving this... the real season will seem like an anticlimax after this

[steveaki13]

Its a brilliant effort rjbetty.

How do you run these simulations exactly, not being well up on Grand Prix 2.

By the way I thought you said you were short on time This must take hours to work through.

Cant wait to see who wins your championship.

[rjbetty]

Its a brilliant effort rjbetty.

How do you run these simulations exactly, not being well up on Grand Prix 2.

By the way I thought you said you were short on time This must take hours to work through.

Cant wait to see who wins your championship.

I know, I was incredibly busy at the end of the year. Got some time off for now, almost a month so gettin some rest and stuff. I use accelerated time a lot (no way I'm that bothered to do it all in real time and also am doing stuff while it's going on in the background.

I just finished it now. I 'll post an update.

I just do a championship season but with no players. It will run with all AI cars. And use GP2EDIT32 to change each drivers and teams performance, reliability, everything. I got it all off grandprix2.de

[steveaki13]

Other cars drop out, quite a bit of attrition here.

A quick off Topic. I know you're like me rjbetty and loved the old days of attritional races. I used to play a Grand Prix Game based on F1 1997 and racing at Monaco as Eddie Irvine I started 17th and ended up winning as every other car retired. I spent the last 2 laps lapping Monaco on my own. Weird

Back on Topic then.

[steveaki13]

I have given my idea's on Championship standings on Page 1, but time to give my views on F1 2014 line ups now that they are complete.

Red Bull - I see no reason sadly why Newey and team shouldn't build the best car yet again, although this season is the best chance for someone to break the dominance.

Sebastian Vettel- Not much to say, but he has impressed me more and more with each season, and thus if he gets another top car he will be able to win the title again.

Daniel Ricciardo - This is going to be great to see, I mean we all loved moaning at Webber for being a lap dog, but Daniel has got to spend a season learning about being a top driver. I don't think unless Red Bull produce a monster of a car, that Daniel will be supporting Vettel much and will be looking for some podiums and maybe a win. Next season he should move on and push Seb.

Mercedes - I fancy they might produce the car that finally gives them a shot, however if they get it wrong again and they still cant compete for the title I do worry that Mercedes may withdraw.

Lewis Hamilton - I think Lewis will be the team winner by seasons end, but he may get frustrated if the team fade. I predict Lewis will challenge and maybe win the title this year.

Nico Rosberg - I like Nico and he showed last season that he can win races and can match and beat Lewis. However he still has a few too many off days. Days where he runs 5th or 6th race that being 2nd or 3rd.

Ferrari - I cant decide on Ferrari. Year in year out now, they never seem to produce "That" car that will challenge for regular race wins and thus a Championship. This needs to change with two drivers like this.

Fernando Alonso - We all know how good he is, but I fear he may never win another title if the Ferrari is not good this year, because he may get frustrated and leave, but then is there a top seat left for 2015?

Kimi Raikkonen - I like Kimi, he says it like it is and races hard. I think he will annoy Fernando and make this a battle to remember, we have seen these two race against each other all the way through their careers and now side by side its going to be fun.

Lotus - Judging by the car being delayed and some comments by the team boss. I worry that Lotus are going to sink away. And of course the driver line up is weaker than 2013.

Romain Grosjean - I like Romain and he proved me wrong last year as I thought he would be a crash fest again, but he was awesome. The way he raced Red Bull a couple of times towards the end of 2013 was amazing.

Pastor Maldonado - Pass. I have no idea what he will offer. The money must be good, but I think he will get into trouble more this season. Could be exciting though.

McLaren - I hope they come back with a better car and get back to winning races.

Button - If they have a decent car he might win a race or two, but his Championship challenging days are over I fear.

Magnussen - Don't know much about him really. Give him a top car and we might see a Lewis Hamilton style first season, but give him an average car and he could fade into the midfield.

Force India - A team that varies from season to season and from race to race in those seasons. I hope to see them stayed up there, with there two drivers they have a chance of decent results.

Nico Hulkenberg - Still cant believe he didn't get a top drive this season, but if its a half decent car, then he can get a podium or two. I think he is that good,

Sergio Perez - Still cant decide on him. Looked average, then great at Sauber over his seasons there. Then up and down at McLaren again. I don't see him matching Hulkenberg over the season, but could spring the odd decent result.

Sauber - A team that could fade this season. After their late season comeback in 2013, I think they will return to a early 2013 sort of speed and form.

Adrian Sutil - Don't rate him and don't think old Slash deserves his seat really, but he will bring experience and wet weather skills to the team

Gutierrez- Didn't rate him the first two thirds of 2013, but late season he picked up and I hope he can build on that. I would like to see him do well.

Williams - Who knows. 2011 barely score a point then, 2012 win a race and run in points many weekends. Then 2013 and barely scoring a point again.

Felipe Massa - I like Felipe but probably his career is mostly over but nether the less I think he could score some points for the team.

Valterri Bottas - I like this guy and give him a better car and regular points could follow.

Toro Rosso - I never warm to Toro Rosso, but they always seem to improve as the season goes on, this year I don't really know.

JE Vergne - I really like this guy. He seems to have something which could see him stick around for a few years, I would like to think more points will follow.

Kyvat - Don't rate him massively but lets give him a bit of time.

Marussia - I would like to think that the redesign of the cars for 2014, but see them close in and tag onto the back of the field, and maybe score a point.

Bianchi - Remember his first half of 2013 was brilliant. Outraced his back 4 rivals and challenged a couple of other cars ahead, but faded as the team did after being overtaken by Caterham.

Chilton - I like him as a guy, but not really sure he deserves a second season. Spent most of 2013 trailing off at the back. Hope a second season helps him improve.

Caterham - Wayward team with no consistency in driver line ups, but did a decent job to get ahead of Marussia in the latter half of 2013.

Kamui Kobayshi - He is always fun and I fancy a few banzi starts might see him launch ahead of midfield cars at the starts and then get involved for a while, but will more than likely be involved in a few crashes.

Ericcson - Not a stunning record coming into F1, but lets see. I fear he maybe battling Chilton for distant 2nd last.

Oh well there are my thoughts.