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Thread: 2014 F1 season prediction
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24th April 2014, 10:41 #141
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I think throughout the years I also have done the miscalculation of predicting more reliability problems than there really were.
I have made one conclusion on the back of the 2014 Chinese GP and mere 2 retirements. That the era of half of the field retiring (like 10+ years ago) is forever gone. If it didn't happen in 2014, it ain't ever happen again.
Which means the era of pushing technology to the limits, which sees the increase in technical troubles, is over. Nowadays everything is about saving and long-life components. And considering the world developments and how important economical use of technology and resources has become, this is the future. So almost all of the grid finishing races will be a norm till unforeseen future.
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24th April 2014, 12:14 #142
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I haven't seen the article but if it implies that Hulk loses out by not having the "carpe diem" moments then I would have to disagree.
I'm a big fan of both drivers and Nico just quietly gets it done. It's not uncommon to not really notice him much during a race yet he finishes well. Consistency and solid times gets him to the right end of the pack.
Sergio on the other hand seems less consistent, and it sometimes seems that he has to fight harder for passes and such to get a good finish. This and sometimes the use of tire strategy (which is probably just as much influenced by the team) can get him to the right end of the pack at times.
As strange as it seems, often watching Sergio is more fun than watching Nico finish higher. He has to have those moments or he wouldn't get towards the front. Nico seizes the entire race in a more calm manner, and is less likely to push hard passes that might risk the car.
But I hope both of them have a great season. Force India seems to be doing well, and both are worthy of good cars probably better than what they are driving. It's shocking that Hulk didn't get picked up by Ferrari, and as it turns out probably lucky for Sergio that McLaren was stupid enough to blame the drivers for their turd and get rid of him.
I wouldn't be surprised if history shows both drivers ending up in the top teams.
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24th April 2014, 12:43 #143
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Hülkenberg certainly has had his moments, like mentioned in the Sauber last year. Qualifying 3rd at Monza was a stunner.
As for criticism, the goal of racing drivers is to collect as many points as possible over a full season. And in fulfilling that goal Hülkenberg is very efficient. Based on current situation he is right there battling with Alonso and the Red Bulls for best of the rest position behind the Mercedes' in the championship.
Even if he doesn't have a true standout drive out of the first four races this year yet, he is still at least on the level of prime form Heidfeld/Button, which is also a very good level, let's not underestimate that. Just to recall Heidfeld from 2007 or Button from 2011. The "quiet achiever" as the saying goes.
As for Pérez, I think chances are his inconsistency is likely to relegate him into having a midfield career for the rest of his career. Of course based on how team performances fluctuate it is hard to make conclusive claims, looking at how good Force India has been so far this year. But it is hard to see him in contention for seats, which are considered to be the prime places with biggest competition, like Red Bull, Mercedes or Ferrari.
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24th April 2014, 20:37 #144
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Thoughts on 2014 so far
I don't think I predicted Mercedes to be dominant.
My thoughts on 2014 so far.
Mercedes - I never saw such a level of domination before the season began. It seems like they should win every race 1-2 that they finish for now, but Red Bull could challenge them for race wins later in the season. Lewis appears to match my expectation that he would beat Rosberg generally, despite still being behind due to his retirement.
Red Bull - I predicted they would win the Championship again this season but its appearing to be unlikely they can recover the deficit. I still saw Vettel comfortably beating Ricciardo, but it looks like the Australian is really going to push Seb hard.
Ferrari - I thought Alonso and Ferrari might have been in a position to challenge this season but it looks as if they are worse than ever, and quickly returning to early/mid 90s form. Kimi appears struggling for any pace and only Alonso's brilliant drive in China has moved them forward from midfield.
McLaren - After a hopeless 2013 I thought that 2014 had improved after the 2-3 in Australia but since then its a return to 2013 form. Could it be that McLaren have produced a dog for the second year running.
Force India - The car looks to be third fastest now and even faster than Red Bull at times. Hulkenberg has had consistant class, while Perez has struggled but then got it together in the last couple of races.
Williams - The car isn't as fast as we thought in Oz, but it is clearly still faster than I feared. It just seems that they are harder on tyres and seem a bit more hit and miss. Hence why the team has not gained the results they deserve.
Massa & Bottas seem ultimately well matched to me.
Toro Rosso - They have scored more they I thought they would, but that could be because of other cars retiring. Kyvat has been far better than we feared, I remember a lot of doom predicted about him. Vergne is decent as per.
Sauber - Wow. Lucky I chose to give them the boot in my FGP team, the car is heavy, slow and unreliable. It appears the Sauber team are in a rut in 2014. I hope they can score some points soon and keep going into 2015. Sutil has looked really average in my opinion this season without Force India. While Gutierrez has done nothing special.
Lotus - No one predicted just hope dopey there season would start off. I mean the first two races they could barely get a car to the finish of any session. Since then they have improved reliability and speed. They are creeping closer and closer to the points. I hope they can keep going.
Marussia - I think most of us predicted a season with Marussia and Caterham still at the back, but I thought with the changes they might have found a point or two in the early races. However it seems that no more than 2 cars will retire from now on. I think It will be an interesting battle all season between Bianchi and Kobayashi. Bianchi has actually made some poor errors so far. Crashing into Maldonado in Malaysia and Sutil twice in Bahrain. While Chilton has done a fine job. Finishing 13th twice I think and finishing every race to continue his 22 or 23 race finishing streak.
Caterham - As with Marussia I predicted them to struggle again, but Kobayashi has mixed it with the lower midfield on occasions. I would love to see one of the backmarkers with Merc Power next year. It might actually close the gap to the midfield.
Those are my thoughts compare to my predictions after the early rounds.I still exist and still find the forum occasionally. Busy busy
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24th April 2014, 20:44 #145
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Your so right Jens.
Look at his podium in Bahrain. Brilliant and yet the first two rounds he was anonymous.
As for Hulkenberg. He's one of those drivers who I really want to get a shot soon at a top car. I would hate him to miss out on a top level career because he never lands a decent drive.I still exist and still find the forum occasionally. Busy busy
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11th May 2014, 15:38 #146
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29th September 2014, 21:58 #147
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Well, now I can say... The prediction wasn't very good. Not a big surprise before major regulation changes! But we remember how radically things have changed. At the end of last year Red Bull and Lotus were at the front, Sauber decent, while Williams was near the back. It would have been very bold to predict what is now without prior evidence.
Another issue with this year is that competition trends are very consistent. I predicted both Red Bull and Lotus to have an upward performance curve during the season, but none of this is happening. All the teams are roughly where they were in the beginning. Even Sauber doesn't have much chance of opening the pointscore.
Contrast to 2009, when after big reg changes the performance trends shifted significantly during the season. However, probably has to do with the type of changes and that in-season power unit development is banned, while during 2009 aerodynamic development, key of the year, was certainly as fast as ever.
Were I to predict 2015 though... I expect it to be more like a "status quo" year as opposed to 2014, which everyone knew would be a big year for changes, just nobody was sure which way it would go.Last edited by jens; 29th September 2014 at 22:01.
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21st November 2014, 12:12 #148
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The season has pretty much basically ended in the next few days so I thought I´d start dragging up these old chestnuts we laid before the season. We can laugh at who´s predictions were the most terrible! To start with, I have minardi's prediction (hey I wonder what happened to him)
I have edited his post a little and added my comments in brackets.
All in all, minardi's prediction was very good actually. Well done.Last edited by rjbetty; 21st November 2014 at 12:14.
SPAM - Going off topic to give you the deals you don't want.
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21st November 2014, 13:32 #149
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21st November 2014, 14:29 #150
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In retrospect I am a bit sad I wasn't a bit more bold in some predictions, because the "direction" was right, i.e Mercedes having the best power unit.
But I wanted to comment on one of the pre-season ponderings about midfield teams and what has happened.
The answer is YES! Williams! Wow, didn't expect that. But they are a "remote frontrunner", half-regular podium contender just like Lotus was. And about to finish third in the constructors championship. Great stuff!
Team-by-team. Results in bold include placings in the previous regulation era (2009-2013)
Force India - 6th, 7th, 6th, 7th, 9th.
Same old, same old. 6th again, now despite the best PU. I personally had thought maybe Force India could have the best chance of becoming a „surprise midfield team“, but didn’t happen. Their chassis department is still not good enough.
Sauber – 7th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 6th
10th (!) this year, by far the worst I can remember. Financial problems compounded by poor power unit have seen them dropping to their greatest low. Can they fight back?
Williams – 9th, 8th, 9th, 6th, 7th
3rd. Wow, this is an opposite example. A turnaround! The last time Williams finished in top3 in the constructors, was... 2003. Can they stay there though? Are their finances good enough for long-term success? Or are they like Lotus of 2012-2013?
STR – 8th, 9th, 8th, 9th, 10th
Toro Rosso is about to finish 7th this year, which is their second best ever results (6th in 2008). But in terms of performance STR is still where it usually has been, point-score is still modest. Their position in WCC has been helped by Lotus and Sauber being as rubbish as they have been.
These current midfield teams have been "status quo" for five consecutive years already. None of them has a huge budget or a significant change in ownership and all leave an impression it could be the same ol' story in the new 2014 V6T regulation era as well. Only to be potentially joined by Lotus in midfield battles.
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