Page 17 of 17 FirstFirst ... 7151617
Results 161 to 170 of 170
  1. #161
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    South East England
    Posts
    1,490
    Like
    232
    Liked 169 Times in 131 Posts
    Time to rake up my own predictions now:

    Quote Originally Posted by rjbetty View Post
    As for unreliability, I am relishing a greater taste of this in 2014. Sadly I don't think it will be like old times as people are saying - certainly not that bloodbath someone said recently. I think the increase in unreliability will be much less dramatic than predicted
    I'm pretty happy with that prediction, though unreliability was even less than my conservative guess of between 4-8 retirements per race.

    Red Bull - Renault
    I believe the hopes that Red Bull will be toppled by Mercedes have at least some wishful thinking involved... ...I would say at worst, they will be a smidgen off Mercedes.
    Ohhhh not quite.

    Even if Renault are down on power, and even if their engine is not the overall best, I still see Red Bull having the best, or just about the best overall package.
    Bear in mind I wrote this before pre-season testing and the well documented catastrophe... And they DID have the best chassis it seemed.

    Despite what people say about Mercedes, I am going to install Vettel as the favourite.
    I think I overrated Seb tbh. I was wrong.

    Daniel Ricciardo is of course a big unknown. Frankly, he hasn't been able to put any major points on the board, in the way that Alonso and Vettel did for the same team. This must be a concern... ...He won't be a disaster, but the jury is well and truly still out.
    The court has reached it's verdict - a great success (overinflated according to some, yet their favourite driver never being guilty of the same!)
    SPAM - Going off topic to give you the deals you don't want.

  2. #162
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    South East England
    Posts
    1,490
    Like
    232
    Liked 169 Times in 131 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by rjbetty View Post
    Mercedes
    We have been hearing things like their engine having a 100bhp advantage. There is a lot of hype going on here.
    Wasn't far from the truth actually!

    But my instinct tells me that though Mercedes will duly enjoy their best season yet, there is still more hype than substance. I don't see them utterly dominating and Red Bull struggling.
    Man I REALLY need to work on my instincts. *massive facepalm*
    To be fair, how many times did Mercedes look good pre-season only to flatter to deceive come season proper? Every single time until this year.

    All this means that it could well be Nico Rosberg who is professional enough to take up the fight. If the Mercedes is really as good as some hope, I see him getting the WDC job done this year.
    I was so sure of this, I'd have put money on him if I had it. Late season I did, so lost out.

    He seems a driver who does better in a better car and comes ahead of Lewis more through studious, diligent work and application than outright raw talent I feel. I mean imagine Nico winning in a pig of a car. His wins have all come from the front/been inherited. Lewis is still the one who transcends.
    Well that's kinda what most felt anyway? Nico did study his way to success this year, poring over Lewis' data like revising for an exam. It did the trick and helped him close the gap. I can't understand why Merc gave him that dossier if they were screwing him to support Lewis all along... Unless they weren't!

    Nico surprised most of us last year with his closeness in pace and performance to Hamilton. This led to some hyperbole and stuff saying he was better than Hamilton. I've tried to be as objective as I can, but still fully believe that Hamilton did marginally the better job.
    This is still the case this year, and I still feel the same. Actually, I think Lewis was far more convincing against Nico than in 2013, reading between the lines. Nico outqualified him many times but Lewis simply lacking pace was rare if not non-existent.

    The WDC may be out of reach again (by a little or a lot?), the WCC can be a real possibilty.
    Well got the WCC right but not the WDC.



    Ferrari
    Another season, another set of hopes for the titles. This is beginning to look like the late 90's all over again. To be blunt, why are things going to be different this time? ...If anything, major regulation changes are prime conditions for the scud to lose yet more ground.
    Called it right. *feels pleased with self*

    Alonso and Raikkonen could find themselves consigned to 4th and 5th places this season with not too many podiums.
    Nailed it.

    ...even if the worst happens, they should be fairly safe in 3rd in the constructors.
    Aw had to spoil the good run with that...
    Last edited by rjbetty; 28th November 2014 at 09:37.
    SPAM - Going off topic to give you the deals you don't want.

  3. #163
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    South East England
    Posts
    1,490
    Like
    232
    Liked 169 Times in 131 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by rjbetty View Post
    There are now too many egos in the team, and this all looks very volatile. If there are any on track issues - team-mate collisions, or getting lost on performance again, this could all come to a head.
    I think I did pretty well here. I mean Domenicalli, Marmorini, di Montezemelo, and Alonso! All gone.

    Now some fans are claiming Raikkonen is the best driver in the world and will come in and show Fernando around. This reminds me of when Fisichella joined Renault for 2005 and many people, notably respected journalist Tony Dodgins made bold declarations and predictions for Fisi.
    Think I nailed this. Kimi somehow managed to fare even worse than Fisi...

    I think it will be more like the Hamilton/Button partnership at McLaren. I truly believe that if Fernando is himself, he should definitely come out on top.
    Naw, Raikkonen just didn't switch it on at all really, and cost Ferrari 3rd overall...

    ...if this does happen to Fernando (self destructs), then we will never hear the end of it from Kimi fans.
    Ouch did I have to say that. I was feeling slightly narked cos Kimi won best driver of 2013 on crash net, and I felt he was very good but not that good. That's probably where this came from.


    Lotus - RenaultMy prediction is that they will have similar form to what they had in 2011. It could even be slightly worse.
    It was slightly worse!

    Pastor has shown a very different attitude to Grosjean... and he could well self-destruct (and take the team down with him thru reckless crashes etc). Few expect him to topple Romain, and rightly so.
    Actually, Pastor has probably fared better off track than Grosjean! The rest of it was fairly correct

    Therefore, Maldonado may not be a totally hopeless case.
    Brave words - and I still stand by them! Am I crazy?

    ...it's probably much more likely he will be rattled by Grosjean and get his knickers in a massive twist, causing problems for all.
    Crashing a lot with money sparse didn't help.

    I expect nothing better than Renault 2007/2011/McLaren 2013 kind of form from Lotus in 2014, and depending on Maldonado and other things, they could have trouble with Force India too.
    Well it was worse than that, and they got nowhere near Force India. Where's my later prediction of a Benetton 2001 season? Come on, I called that just right!
    SPAM - Going off topic to give you the deals you don't want.

  4. #164
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    South East England
    Posts
    1,490
    Like
    232
    Liked 169 Times in 131 Posts
    [QUOTE=rjbetty;975335[b]McLaren-Mercedes[/b]]
    ...they won't suffer as badly this year. 2014 may be to 2013 as 2008 was to 2007 for Renault, an improvement.[/ quote]
    Well in the end I was probably right on the money? Yes?

    ...Jenson being 1.0-1.2sec or so off the pace, maybe 1.5 if the gaps are really big through the field.
    I'm claiming this one. Jenson was +1.56 off Rosberg I think.

    Wins? Ohhh I'm not sure. How about podiums this time. That seems realistic. I wouldn't expect more than 2 wins max though even in the best case scenario. But overall a decent enough recovery ready for 2015.
    Not a bad guess.

    I can't really see him matching Jenson for speed first year round, [/b](nailed it)[/b] but then Perez outqualified him 10-9... I think Magnussen could actually finish 8th in the WDC. I don't think he will be totally inconsistent and down the pack.
    Ummm not so sure about the 2nd bit...
    SPAM - Going off topic to give you the deals you don't want.

  5. #165
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    South East England
    Posts
    1,490
    Like
    232
    Liked 169 Times in 131 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by rjbetty View Post
    Force India - Mercedes
    As a team that invariably produces a solid car year in year out, Force India should be in pretty good shape in 2014.

    But interestingly in Gerhard Berger's interview, he said that Hulk was a little overhyped. despite liking Nico very much, I have thought this. ...there is a nagging doubt that he may not be A+ material, just A.

    I think Perez may actually surprise some people in how close he is to Hulkenberg

    If it's all able to gel, Force India should be in for a swag of points. The Mercedes is the engine to have, it appears. Maybe talk of regular podiums and even wins should be cast down for a more realistic single podium, or maybe two.
    Yep I think FI had a good car. Didn't predict the money woes/no development though.
    Sadly my thoughts about Nico could be true for now...
    Perez maybe did surprise against Hulk.
    They did get a swag of points, until the money ran out.
    I was right about the more realistic single podium or two!
    SPAM - Going off topic to give you the deals you don't want.

  6. #166
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    6,744
    Like
    145
    Liked 209 Times in 165 Posts
    Well, Rj. Great hindsight. I tried to read this thread from the beginning, but so-so much analysis and discussion about all kinds of details that it is pretty hard to deepen into all of this now.

    One thing was confirmed once again though - that predictions are always too much based on previous season. And seems there is nothing to do about that, it seems so human regardless of what you do.

    Especially when a new era begins, you must be very bold and predict something completely new.

    2014 - it was easy to think "oh Red Bull has been so great, they must be up there." No! Mercedes dominates.
    2009 - Ferrari and McLaren are great teams, they must be up there. No! Brawn and Red Bull dominate.
    1998 - Williams have been having best cars for many years, they must be pretty good. No! McLaren dominates.
    And so on.

    Forget about the past, new era is a new era!

    And were I to make a 2015 prediction now - yeah, needless to say, it would look pretty similar to 2014 pecking orders... Will never learn I guess. But what should I predict to change now?!?! No massive rule changes for 2015, even the engine is frozen.

    But at least it will give a good consideration, what to predict, when next time major rule changes come around. Rule #1: Forget about the last year, it doesn't exist. Imagine F1 starts from the beginning again, this new season is the first ever F1 season. And that's how the pecking orders usually develop in new eras...
    Last edited by jens; 29th November 2014 at 00:23.

  7. #167
    Senior Member steveaki13's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Chelmsford, Essex, United Kingdom
    Posts
    10,568
    Like
    695
    Liked 653 Times in 512 Posts
    1998, 2009 & 2014 have all see massive rule changes and hence the change in order I guess.

    1999 It stayed very similar

    2010 - Red Bull stayed up there after the 2009 rule change.

    So 2015 could well see a similar order and Mercedes will probably be at the front again
    I still exist and still find the forum occasionally. Busy busy

  8. #168
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    6,744
    Like
    145
    Liked 209 Times in 165 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by steveaki13 View Post
    1998, 2009 & 2014 have all see massive rule changes and hence the change in order I guess.

    1999 It stayed very similar

    2010 - Red Bull stayed up there after the 2009 rule change.

    So 2015 could well see a similar order and Mercedes will probably be at the front again
    I have noticed that even if order remains "relatively similar" there are still some small changes. For example in 1999 Jordan and Frentzen, despite being slower than McLaren-Ferrari again, went on to have a remote shot at the championship. That's a pretty big shock and vastly different to 1998! And Stewart was very good in 1999 as well.

    If I am trying to recall two truly very similar years, 1994-1995 come to mind. It was almost a carbon copy. Benetton-Williams at the front, then Ferrari, then McLaren with unreliable car/engines, then Jordan-Ligier-Sauber, then others. The difference was that in 1995 #2 drivers of Williams and Benetton stayed the same all year, so finished 3rd and 4th WDC. While in 1994 they were changed all the time, so Berger in the Ferrari was comfortably third.

    But other than that I am struggling to remember two truly almost identical successive years. So what about 2015? At least something has got to change, even if not regarding Mercedes, then somewhere behind them.

  9. #169
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    South East England
    Posts
    1,490
    Like
    232
    Liked 169 Times in 131 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jens View Post
    I have noticed that even if order remains "relatively similar" there are still some small changes. For example in 1999 Jordan and Frentzen, despite being slower than McLaren-Ferrari again, went on to have a remote shot at the championship. That's a pretty big shock and vastly different to 1998! And Stewart was very good in 1999 as well.

    If I am trying to recall two truly very similar years, 1994-1995 come to mind. It was almost a carbon copy. Benetton-Williams at the front, then Ferrari, then McLaren with unreliable car/engines, then Jordan-Ligier-Sauber, then others. The difference was that in 1995 #2 drivers of Williams and Benetton stayed the same all year, so finished 3rd and 4th WDC. While in 1994 they were changed all the time, so Berger in the Ferrari was comfortably third.

    But other than that I am struggling to remember two truly almost identical successive years. So what about 2015? At least something has got to change, even if not regarding Mercedes, then somewhere behind them.
    How about 2007-2008. I always regarded them as similar, though Vettel in the Toro Rosso caused an upset.

    I actually think 1995-1996 even with many driver changes.

    As for the WCC, I tip McLaren to move up, possibly to 2nd. The most likely change is Lotus who I think will grab 6th.
    SPAM - Going off topic to give you the deals you don't want.

  10. #170
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    6,744
    Like
    145
    Liked 209 Times in 165 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by rjbetty View Post
    How about 2007-2008. I always regarded them as similar, though Vettel in the Toro Rosso caused an upset.

    I actually think 1995-1996 even with many driver changes.

    As for the WCC, I tip McLaren to move up, possibly to 2nd. The most likely change is Lotus who I think will grab 6th.
    2007-2008 is a good call, though the seasons had some kind of a different vibe. In 2007 nobody could get close to McLaren and Ferrari, they won all races that year. But in 2008 somehow we got lots of different race winners (Alonso twice, Kubica, Vettel) and somehow Ferrari and McLaren were much more vulnerable even if they were still the best.

    In 2015 terms it would mean that Mercedes would still win the championship (relatively comfortably), but would be much more vulnerable in race wins and would lose about close to half of the race wins during the season to other teams. Do we think this could possibly happen?

    This also reminds 1988-1989. In 1988 McLaren was vastly dominant by win ratio of 15/16. In 1989 they were still the best, but ratio had dropped to 10/16.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •