2014 F1 season prediction

[Tazio]

Intersesting Steve but ineffective. A) Kimi will not out qualify Fred by that much, if at all. I get what you are saying and it is a fantastic narrative.(which the best of are ALWAYS fiction ).B) You don't know what the crud is going to happen at the first GP, C) either do I, so quit acting like you do. Ferrari will not lose a gearbox built for 6 races 3/4 the way through its first race. In fact if memory serves me correctly Ferrari was the only team to get 5 races out of each gearbox last year!
Best Wishes,
http://i.imgur.com/Ra9jlr5.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/y7Ln61U.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/bgwA9Df.jpg

[Tazio]

Fred tips Massa

Mar.4 (GMM/Inautonews.com) Fernando Alonso has tipped his departed Ferrari teammate Felipe Massa to be a “strong rival” in 2014.

After eight years in red, Brazilian Massa’s move to the once-great British team Williams was seen as a clearly backwards step for the 11-time grand prix winner.

But after pre-season testing, Mercedes-powered Williams has emerged as one of the strongest forces for 2014, with Massa tipped as an outside chance for outright victory in Melbourne.

“I’ve talked with Felipe several times this year already,” Spaniard Alonso is quoted by Brazil’s Globo.

“He is happy, Williams has so much history in formula one and is not just any team, and they have had a very strong pre-season,” he admitted.

“It is very positive because now they can be fighting. Felipe will definitely be a strong rival this year,” added Alonso.

Alonso also played down the constant suggestions that both he and Ferrari will struggle to cope with his rivalry with Massa’s 2014 replacement, fellow champion Kimi Raikkonen.

“We are trying to work together, working for Ferrari and arriving in Australia to fight for the race,” Alonso said.

“So let’s have this internal competition – normal in every team – because we all want to be ahead of the other one, and hopefully this can help Ferrari,” he added.

http://www.inautonews.com/massa-to-be-s ... xV3UVnTnIU

[steveaki13]

Hey... Taz........

Don't tell me I don't know what will happen, until its happened man.

It was only a fun story. ......until it comes true.

[Tazio]

Hey... Taz........

Don't tell me I don't know what will happen, until its happened man.

It was only a fun story. ......until it comes true.

It is a great narrative Steve, I think I already said that. I have to admit I have not gone into that much detail about race senarios, even though with every thing still up in the air the possibilities are extreme dude. Just to show I read your narrative (and enjoyed it ) I will bet you 8 ham sandwiches to one that Fred does not lose p2 behind the Boss because of a gearbox malfunction. Maybe you ought to put out an abridged edition of your very excelent narrative.You could write Fred out of the script in the first race, and say tthat he retired because his cars malfuction electricuted Alonso into a crusty smodering, and thoroughly dead cinder. OK?

[Valve Bounce]

I know rjbetty used to do this last year. I don't know if he will pop out again, but thought I'd come and share my prediction of the 2014 F1 season.

Well, last time we had significant rule changes - 2009 - I got all predictions horribly wrong. Eager to see, what comes out of this.

In my mind played through all the races, including double points at Abu Dhabi, and the final score looks like the following:

1. Lewis Hamilton GBR Mercedes 286
2. Sebastian Vettel GER RBR Renault 275
3. Fernando Alonso ESP Ferrari 266
4. Nico Rosberg GER Mercedes 253
5. Kimi Räikkönen FIN Ferrari 210
6. Daniel Ricciardo AUS RBR Renault 137
7. Jenson Button GBR McLaren Mercedes 120
8. Nico Hülkenberg GER Force India Mercedes 101
9. Romain Grosjean FRA Lotus Renault 70
10. Kevin Magnussen* DEN McLaren Mercedes 67
11. Sergio Pérez MEX Force India Mercedes 63
12. Pastor Maldonado VEN Lotus Renault 45
13. Valtteri Bottas FIN Williams Mercedes 33
14. Felipe Massa BRA Williams Mercedes 28
15. Adrian Sutil GER Sauber Ferrari 25
16. Esteban Gutiérrez MEX Sauber Ferrari 20
17. Jean-Èric Vergne FRA STR Renault 12
18. Daniil Kvyat* RUS STR Renault 8
19. Jules Bianchi FRA Marussia Ferrari 1
20. Max Chilton GBR Marussia Ferrari 0
21. Kamui Kobayashi JPN Caterham Renault 0
22. Marcus Ericsson* SWE Caterham Renault 0

1. Mercedes (M) 539
2. Ferrari (F) 476
3. Red Bull (R) 412
4. McLaren (M) 187
5. Force India (M) 164
6. Lotus (R) 115
7. Williams (M) 61
8. Sauber (F) 45
9. STR (R) 20
10. Marussia (F) 1


Vettel had a storming end to the season again, including winning the double points in Abu Dhabi, but this time it wasn't quite enough. Four drivers were within a shot of a WDC before the title decider, which had the maximum of 50 points on offer.

So, waiting for your predictions before the winter testing begins.

The mind boggles. How many hours did you spend coming up with all these predicted points?
I rack my brains for hours trying to pick a single winner, and usually fail!

[jens]

The mind boggles. How many hours did you spend coming up with all these predicted points?
I rack my brains for hours trying to pick a single winner, and usually fail!

Spread across several days. And an hour or few per day. I remember I was also a bit sick in early January, so had a bit of spare time to do it, while wasn't active outside home.

I visualize a race, not a single detail of it, but what the general flow might be.
What track are we on and how could it roughly suit each car, at least at the front and midfield;
who might go well in qualifying, who drops out in Q1, then Q2, then see Q3.
then who gets away well off the line;
whether we could have a bigger accident (at start or somewhere else), a safety car at some point or rain;
a possible change in race performance (tyre wear rates of different teams most likely);
and then whose turn might it be to suffer from some car problems now.

Then in the end write up results (the top 10). I don't visualize everyone at once, but mostly front-runners and those at upper midfield, who are going well this time. And then last couple of points go to those, who maybe didn't get attention during visualization, but feel that they were "silently doing well" (like sometimes drivers emerge in good places from nowhere like it is said) and had a good strategy/race pace to maximize result.

Wet races with many varying strategies are a complicated thing to do - actually impossible to do for all competitors at once. I think I go through them in a simpler way than what is really happening. But also guess, who might have a good setup this day and just perform well even if normally you don't expect this.

However, have to do it with a certain feel for the whole season. Because there is a certain flow in every season. For example if I decide that team A has a car, which has proven to be difficult to develop from the get-go, then they don't start too well, but maybe rise upwards with a Barcelona upgrade. Or a Silverstone one.

But yeah, important thing while playing this thing through is a decision. Decide for a scenario. Say - Mercedes gets off brilliantly with the fastest car. It doesn't mean in actual visualization they will win races, because while you visualize, you see them hitting trouble. But they are in good position to compete at the front.

So before going about individual races I have to visualize, how each team's season (not in terms of results, but potential) roughly could unfold - how fast they are, how well they develop, how much depth they have, how good their strategy might be, how consistent or error-prone drivers might be.

[jens]

Other than that...

The impression I get now is that... Red Bull is very likely to drop too far behind competition before they get fully up to speed, so that even double points do not help them. There are claims Renault' engine might be coming good by the time of Silverstone and RBR might indeed be a front-runner in the second half of 2014, but it looks like the handicap of the first half of 2014 might be too much to overcome. Like it was for Hamilton in 2009 (before winning Hungary) Räikkönen in 2004 (podium in UK), Häkkinen in 2001 (scored only a few points before winning at Silverstone, but this was far too late for a comeback). As it is, the matter for Vettel is not if he finishes 3rd or 4th, but if he finishes at all and whether there are many teams in front of him (say, all Mercedes-powered cars). If so, he would lose far too many points to be in contention later on.

Let's put it this way - in terms of long-term outlook Red Bull is far more likely to be a title contender in 2015 than in 2014. 2014 seems a difficult transition year for them and Dr Marko is probably right that the season starts too early for them,

As it is, based on winter testing Mercedes is the season favourite. I am reluctant in counting out Ferrari in a season-long battle. They have traditionally been consistent and it remains to be seen, how much development potential they have versus Mercedes over a full season. Their situation is not ideal, but looks better than Red Bulls. So unlike RBR they might still be within striking distance by the final phase of the season. But it looks like it still requires Mercedes cocking up and/or not maximizing their potential properly to enable Ferrari to really capitalize, i.e exactly what happened to Red Bull in 2010. Or McLaren/Häkkinen in 1999 in a battle against Irvine.

Also looks like we are set for some interesting early-season results. Like we saw in 2012 for different reasons. Even a Williams or a Force India race win is not off the cards in a race with favorable circumstances for them. However, what we have to consider is that this win would most likely be a pleasant exception rather than a rule.

It will be fascinating to see the rates of reliability, unseen for a long time. And especially Red Bull and Lotus - how far from the pitlane can they even get. Like rjbetty says, this fun won't last forever. So let's enjoy the beginning.

[jens]

Steveaki13 - Oz Gp Weekend.

Results
1. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes - *
2. Valterri Bottas - Williams + 0:59:96
3. Nico Hulkenberg - Force India +1 Lap
4. JE Vergne - Toro Rosso - +1 Lap
5. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes +2 Laps - DNF
6. Jules Bianchi - Marussia +2 Laps
7. Marcus Ericcson - Caterham +4 Laps



There you go, what a race that was.

Decided to vision Australian Grand Prix weekend too and surprisingly similar to your results in some ways.

Qualifying (NT - no time set in that session)
Q1:
22 Ricciardo (Rbr) - NT
21 Grosjean (Lot) - NT
20 Ericsson (Cat)
19 Chilton (Mar)
18 Vergne (Str)
17 Kobayashi (Cat)

Q2:
16 Maldonado (Lot) - NT
15 Sutil (Sau) - NT
14 Kvyat (Str)
13 Bianchi (Mar)
12 Vettel (Rbr)
11 Perez (FI)

Q3:
10 Magnussen (McL) – NT
9 Raikkonen (Fer) – NT
8 Gutierrez (Sau)
7 Hulkenberg (FI)
6 Bottas (Wil)
5 Alonso (Fer)
4 Button (McL)
3 Massa (Wil)
2 Rosberg (Mer)
1 Hamilton (Mer)

DNS for both Maldonado and Hulkenberg. Maldonado can't get out of the garage, Hulkenberg off the line. Rosberg stalls and starts from the back of the grid.
Hamilton leads, but Button moves second ahead of the two Williams of Massa and Bottas, hunted down by Alonso, Raikkonen and fast-starting Perez.
Drama happening with retirements. Some drivers retire with blown engines already on opening laps. Ericsson has a collision with Rosberg, who manages to escape. Safety car.
SC off. Massa runs wide and both Bottas and Alonso move up a place.
Both Lotus are out, both Red Bulls are out. Now both Force Indias are out too. More drama. Magnussen blows up, faces in the McLaren garage are concerned. Sutil blows up and Gutierrez goes into the pits for repairs.
Hamilton, Button, Bottas, Alonso. Massa in fifth is under pressure from Raikkonen, but he too retires with a car problem. Raikkonen goes into the pits for repairs, but rejoins.
Kobayashi desperately wants to get that one point, but has to spend time in the pits for repairs too. In the end he isn't classified and doesn't get that point.
Alonso hunts Bottas down, but cannot quite catch him. Reminiscent of 2011 finish with Petrov.
Rosberg had some niggles, but recovered well from the pitlane to take fifth.
Relief for all those, who got to the finish.

1 Hamilton (Mercedes)
2 Button (McLaren Mercedes)
3 Bottas (Williams Mercedes)
4 Alonso (Ferrari)
5 Rosberg (Mercedes) -1L
6 Vergne (STR Renault) – 2L
7 Bianchi (Marussia Ferrari) -2L
8 Raikkonen (Ferrari) – 2L
9 Gutierrez (Sauber Ferrari) – 4L
NC Kobayashi (Caterham Renault) -9L

Post-race news:
Renault takes positives from sixth place finish. „It is not that bad, as long as this thing lasts you can get a solid result like Toro Rosso showed. Hope to improve the reliability with other teams.“
Hamilton: „A dream start, but we need to keep working hard.“
Button: „Couldn't catch Lewis, had to conserve the car a lot, but happy to be back in business.“
Williams is over the moon. Breakthrough for Bottas. „We knew he is a great driver. Pity for Felipe, who was going well too.“
Alonso: „Mercedes engines were too fast, but we'll work hard to catch them.“
Marussia is over the moon. „Finally we have done it.“ Bianchi says he got an idea, how Webber felt in 2002 as an underdog.
Gutierrez: „Happy with that Sauber, it's a good car. Problems cost us better points.“
Force India vows to improve reliability. „We have got potential, but didn't get results.“
Red Bull: „We didn't expect the car to last for more than 20 laps and that's how it went. Lot of works needs to be done. Better next time.“
Lotus: „Horrible winter testing showed here. But we'll fight back.“
Caterham: „Battery issue cost Kobayashi points. A pity, we had a real chance.“

[JasonPotato]

No one has predicted that not a single car will finish the 1st race. So i will do just that

[rjbetty]

Looks like you got about 6 drivers right in your grid Jens, quite impressive.

The grid has a few similarities to my GP2 season too! Ricciardo and Hamilton on the front row. Magnussen qualifying very well with Jenson around 11th. Hulkenberg and Bottas in lower end of top 10. Kvyat had one of his stronger weekends at the first race, as did Vergne. Kobayashi was the best of the backmarkers getting amongst a few higher teams with Gutierrez somewhere down the back.

It does indeed look like Benetton 2001 for the Enstone team so far...


By the way, I still predict more than 10 finishers, say maybe 13/14... Sadly.


I also had a dream that I didn't watch the first race as I was staying away from Formula 1 again like I did 5-6 years ago. But in the dream I didn't resist flicking through a copy of Autosport. Though reading things in dreams are often muddled and don't make sense, it was clear that Kimi Raikkonen was the winner, while I found that Alonso (who I think was 2nd) was 10pts ahead of Vettel in the championship (deduce that Vettel finished 6th). That's all I knew for certain, through it seemed there were a lot of finishers, like 15...

But every result in every dream I've ever had has been utterly of the mark of real life, without fail (try Damon Hill winning his final race or Pedro Diniz finishing 2nd in Malaysia 99 for example!), so don't read anything into that.