2014 F1 season prediction

[jens]

I know rjbetty used to do this last year. I don't know if he will pop out again, but thought I'd come and share my prediction of the 2014 F1 season.

Well, last time we had significant rule changes - 2009 - I got all predictions horribly wrong. Eager to see, what comes out of this.

In my mind played through all the races, including double points at Abu Dhabi, and the final score looks like the following:

1. Lewis Hamilton GBR Mercedes 286
2. Sebastian Vettel GER RBR Renault 275
3. Fernando Alonso ESP Ferrari 266
4. Nico Rosberg GER Mercedes 253
5. Kimi Räikkönen FIN Ferrari 210
6. Daniel Ricciardo AUS RBR Renault 137
7. Jenson Button GBR McLaren Mercedes 120
8. Nico Hülkenberg GER Force India Mercedes 101
9. Romain Grosjean FRA Lotus Renault 70
10. Kevin Magnussen* DEN McLaren Mercedes 67
11. Sergio Pérez MEX Force India Mercedes 63
12. Pastor Maldonado VEN Lotus Renault 45
13. Valtteri Bottas FIN Williams Mercedes 33
14. Felipe Massa BRA Williams Mercedes 28
15. Adrian Sutil GER Sauber Ferrari 25
16. Esteban Gutiérrez MEX Sauber Ferrari 20
17. Jean-Èric Vergne FRA STR Renault 12
18. Daniil Kvyat* RUS STR Renault 8
19. Jules Bianchi FRA Marussia Ferrari 1
20. Max Chilton GBR Marussia Ferrari 0
21. Kamui Kobayashi JPN Caterham Renault 0
22. Marcus Ericsson* SWE Caterham Renault 0

1. Mercedes (M) 539
2. Ferrari (F) 476
3. Red Bull (R) 412
4. McLaren (M) 187
5. Force India (M) 164
6. Lotus (R) 115
7. Williams (M) 61
8. Sauber (F) 45
9. STR (R) 20
10. Marussia (F) 1


Vettel had a storming end to the season again, including winning the double points in Abu Dhabi, but this time it wasn't quite enough. Four drivers were within a shot of a WDC before the title decider, which had the maximum of 50 points on offer.

So, waiting for your predictions before the winter testing begins.

[lars75]

I aint going to add the points!

1. Vettel
2. Hamilton
3. Alonso
4. Raikkonen
5. Rosberg
6. Ricciardo
7. Button
8. Hulkenberg
9. Perez
10. Magnussen
11. Grosjean
12. Sutil
13. Maldonado (his own prediction)
14. Vergne
15. Massa
16. Bottas
17. Guiterez
18. Kvyat
19. Kobayashi
20. vd Garde
21. Bianchi
22. Chilton

1. Mercedes
2. RedBull
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. Force India
6. Lotus
7. Sauber
8. Williams
9. STR
10. Caterham
11. Marussia

[anfield5]

Seems like a fools errand, but since I am said fool....

1. Alonso (Ferrari will finally provide him a worthy car, instead of a big red dog)
2. Hamilton
3. Vettel
4. Rosberg
5. Kimi
6. Grosjean
7.Ricciardo
8. Button
9. Hulkenberg
10. Magnussen
11. Perez
12. Sutil
13. Maldonado
14. Massa
15. Vergne
16. Bottas
17. Guitierez
18. Caterham 1 (driver TBA)
19. Kvyatt
20. Bianchi
21. Caterham 2
22. Chilton


1. Mercedes (although with no Ross Brawn I a doubtful this will occur)
2. Ferrari
3. RBR
4. McLaren
5. Renault
6.Force India
7. Sauber
8. Williams
9. STR
10. Caterham
11. Marussia

[steveaki13]

I got my predictions last year quite accurate but with this seasons rule changes its more difficult.

1. Sebastian Vettel 287
2. Lewis Hamilton 263
3. Fernando Alonso 255
4. Kimi Raikkonen 211
5. Nico Rosberg 196
6. Jenson Button 174
7. Daniel Ricciardo 168
8. Romain Grosjean 156
9. Nico Hulkenbberg 77
10. Magnussen 75
11. Pastor Maldonado 68
12. Sergio Perez 51
13. Felipe Massa 42
14. JE Vergne 36
15. Adrian Sutil 26
16. Valterri Bottas 21
17. Esteban Gutierrez 17
18. Kyvatt 15
19. Jules Bianchi 1
20. Kobayashi 0
21. VD Garde 0
22. Max Chilton 0

1. Ferrari 466
2. Mercedes 459
3. Red Bull 455
4. McLaren 249
5. Lotus 224
6. Force India 128
7. Williams 63
8. Toro Rosso 51
9. Sauber 43
10. Marussia 1
11. Caterham 0

That's my workings. I really am not sure though. Cant wait to find out.

[Tazio]

My prediction????????-PAIN
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJnKm6ftPu0
Actually I really don't have a good feel for how it is going to end up. It will probably be close between Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari.
Most people are saying that the Mercedes lump in the works car has an advantage. I guess we will see. If so I predict "The Boss" for the WDC.
Let us not discount Red Bull and all their recourses, as well as Seb behind the wheel.

Ferrari may just be up to the task, and if they follow recent form (which there is no reason to expect they will), they may have an advantage in reliability. Gearboxes have to last 6 races this season.
But all in all this is pure speculation.

Come on practice

[jens]

Thanks for the thoughts.

I find interesting though that despite all the regulation changes our predictions are not too dissimilar, in fact differing only in details. We have the same selected group of drivers going for the championship, certainly the same three 'factory' teams at the top. We have McLaren having a marginally better season and Lotus dropping back at least a little. Force India is expected to have the best chance of doing anything among traditional midfield teams. Marussia and Caterham still at the bottom. Let's see, who or what can truly shock us.

The balance of power between Mercedes v Ferrari v RBR will be fascinating to see. Having played through the whole season, I had the following scenario.
- Mercedes getting the best start of all. Despite leading the championship all season they are not quite able to fully capitalize on their advantage though, a bit like Red Bull in 2010, so rivals run them close until the end. Hamilton edges Rosberg, but there are weekends, where Hamilton struggles and Rosberg capitalizes.
- Ferrari getting a great run mid-season, Alonso almost catching WDC lead. But like in many seasons, they struggle to develop the car in the end with windtunnel issues and drop back. Räikkönen has a few weekends, where he outshines Alonso, but most of the time Alonso finishes ahead.
- Red Bull getting a below-par start like they have done in the past + reliability issues with Renault package. I had Vettel only 5th in the WDC behind Mercedes and Ferrari drivers after Monza. They are strong though and can never be underestimated. They came to top form in the final phase again.

- I got Lotus as one, who gets away slowly with new regs, compounded by financial issues. A bit like BAR was nowhere in early 2005 after getting regular podiums in 2004. In the end of the season Lotus recovers somewhat, like the other cash-strapped Sauber did in 2013.

I think early season can bring us a few fascinating individual race results. The only (usual) midfield runner I predicted to get podium finishes, was Force India, but we might get more than that, like we did in 2012. Bottas? Sauber or Toro Rosso in the wet?

[rjbetty]

Nice thread Jens, and nice to see the thoughts of everyone. Now here are some of mine.

I have a brand new keyboard now, so can actually type, yet for some reason many keys do not work. But just now I have gained the use of the spacebar (phew)!
Bear in mind I don't have way to much time on my hands in 2014 as I did early last year.

I actually think this season may be easier to predict than 2013, where I didn't have a clue really (see my FGP).

Thoughts about how I'm making my predictions
I have now been following F1 since 1997; this will be my... 18th season(!) This does not include 2008 and most of 2009 when I was doing something different in life altogether, and 2007 where I mostly only checked results online. But this means I now have a fair bit of experience in judging things. I certainly learned quite a bit from last year.

One thing is that it seems many insiders often don't seem to have that much a better idea than we do. 12 months ago, Sergio Perez predicted Sauber would win races. He also predicted he would be champion... Button said the new McLaren was the best one ever. Williams also felt they would make an improvement.

But there are people who know what they're talking about, and I think it's maybe learning which people's opinions to give more weight to and who's to take with a pinch of salt.

Gary Anderson seems to be a very smart guy. He was the one who, having watched the 2013 cars testing, called out the Red Bull as having "10% more downforce". He also insisted to watch out for Mercedes when I didn't have much hopes for them.

I am also very much taking note of James Allison, who said that the "works" cars should have a huge advantage in 2014 and big gaps will open out. He also rightly said the 2012 Lotus (Renault) would be like their 2005 car. Christian Horner also said half the field could retire in Melbourne. I am going to watch out for these.

I find that Gerhard Berger seems to call things very well too. He recently gave his views on the sport and some drivers. Some of it may seem controversial, but if I am fair and impartial and as objective as possible, I think he has pretty much hit the nail on the head. I remember this time 12 years ago when McLaren were looking good to challenge Ferrari and the field seemed to be closing, and Jordan also looked pretty strong, Berger insisted no, there would be 3 big teams only, and the others wouldn't get close, not even close. As it happened, he was exactly right, against all my feelings.



2014 in general
People generally seem to be thinking this season will be closer than 2013. I am sorry to disappoint, but experience tells me that the gas throughout the field should be bigger than ever. It could surpass even 2002.

I believe as in that season, this one will be about a big 3. Most of us are in agreement that this will be Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari. I put them in that order.

I do however, think things could actually be very close early on. This reminds me very much of the 2011 WRC, when major new regulations saw totally new cars. This meant that for the first rally in Sweden, all works teams and privateers had the same spec car, as there were no older versions to hand down to privateers. This meant that Mads Ostberg shocked everyone by leading much of the rally and only losing to works Ford driver Mikko Hirvonen by 7sec. Also, privateer Per-Gunnar Andersson showed winning pace by messed up.

What an exciting new era that was - everyone had a chance. Except... The flip side of the new cars was that they had masses of room for development as the works teams learned and got used to them. This meant that actually the gap between works and independents got bigger than ever as the works teams made big strides ahead, but the privateers were all still left with the basic spec versions, and this meant a huge gap. And it happened scarily quickly too, by round 3 or so. It turned into even more of a 4 horse race between the works Ford and Citroen drivers, with only Solberg able to keep up.

I fear that this is what 2014 will be like. Pretty close early on, but then Renault (read Red Bull), Mercedes and Ferrari will start to get a grip on their engines and develop well ahead, adapting the units much more to their own car's liking.

There's no guarantee that customer teams will get any updates of the latest specs. This means they could all be left completely behind. I think James Allison will be right.

As for unreliability, I am relishing a greater taste of this in 2014. Sadly I don't think it will be like old times as people are saying - certainly not that bloodbath someone said recently. I think the increase in unreliability will be much less dramatic than predicted - more like 2010 levels, though I think it could maybe be like 2006, when the V8s debuted. Christian Horner recently feared that half the field could retire in Melbourne. But the way he said it was suggesting this was bad and disastrous. This made me realise how used and indoctrinated we have become to supereliability. Does he not realise that before 2003, we regularly had more retirements than that, sometimes much more. Unreliability = unpredictability, a commodity which the greatest seasons invariably have a strong dose of, so any increase will be welcome.

Red Bull - Renault
I believe the hopes that Red Bull will be toppled by Mercedes have at least some wishful thinking involved, sadly. It's true that a new season can make all the difference, but Red Bull are now the best drilled team. I say do not be fooled into thinking they will be anywhere other than right up there. I would say at worst, they will be a smidgen off Mercedes.

I think they are again underplaying their chances as they do. Remember, they have been working on 2014 for pretty much longer than anyone else. They are no fools. They will be working closely with Renault, and understand headline power figures are not everything. The long game is more important, and Renault have tended to do very well on fuel consumption and driveability. I really don't think it's just going to be all about engines like a lot of people say; I merely think they will just be more of a factor, but things will be much the same. I don't set that much store by the banning of exhaust blowing - I'm sure Adrian Newey will just do a better job of the new exhausts than most.

Even if Renault are down on power, and even if their engine is not the overall best, I still see Red Bull having the best, or just about the best overall package.

As for the drivers, surely Vettel can not run away with it again by as big a margin. Despite what people say about Mercedes, I am going to install Vettel as the favourite. He could fairly dominate again, but I just cannot see how he can pull out even more of a gap. I'm thinking I'm sure Mercedes will be closer and Seb will be made to sing to sing for his supper this time round, even if it turns out to be only slightly more than in '13.

Daniel Ricciardo is of course a big unknown. Frankly, he hasn't been able to put any major points on the board, in the way that Alonso and Vettel did for the same team (Toro Rosso was formerly Minardi, remember). This must be a concern, and even if Vettel were to take a 5th crown, the WCC seems less certain, and Mercedes, with two strong drivers seem to have more of a chance here. Having said that, lots of Dan's lack of points were down to the team and car. Now he steps up to a top car and a top team with better strategy, he should achieve more potential. Winning a maiden race is not a certainty though, as even a still pretty strong Mark Webber was unable to do so last year remember - though only cos he was cheated out of that and had strange problems every time he was in contention. He won't be a disaster, but the jury is well and truly still out.

[rjbetty]

Mercedes
Big things are expected of the former BAR team this year. They have long been built up as the favourites, and we have been hearing things like their engine having a 100bhp advantage. There is a lot of hype going on here.

But my instinct tells me that though Mercedes will duly enjoy their best season yet, and seem set to at least consolidate their standing as the 2nd best team, there is still more hype than substance. I don't see them utterly dominating and Red Bull struggling. But they certainly have their best chance ever of major success.

Much of this depends on which Lewis Hamilton we are getting for 2014. I am a huge fan of Lewis - his 2007 is just about the most impressive thing I've ever seen - but I am now going to say some strong things: I agree with Gerhard Berger's recent assertations, and the time has come for me to accept that Lewis is (currently) not the (overall) best driver in F1 (as he is at the moment) (please take note of the words in brackets - this is not set in stone forever) though fastest is something else...

I will lay it out now frankly, and say that until he gets rid of that woman for good, Lewis will never ever achieve his full potential - which is a shame as I think he is faster and more gifted than Sebastian Vettel. Or Fernando Alonso. And especially Kimi Raikkonen. I fully agree with The Black Knight (or was it Truefan32 - I get them two mixed up you know) who a year ago said Nicole messes Lewis up.

All this means that it could well be Nico Rosberg who is professional enough to take up the fight. If the Mercedes is really as good as some hope, I see him getting the WDC job done this year. He seems a driver who does better in a better car and comes ahead of Lewis more through studious, diligent work and application than outright raw talent I feel. I mean imagine Nico winning in a pig of a car. His wins have all come from the front/been inherited. Lewis is still the one who transcends.

Nico surprised most of us last year with his closeness in pace and performance to Hamilton. This led to some hyperbole and stuff saying he was better than Hamilton. I've tried to be as objective as I can, but still fully believe that Hamilton did marginally the better job.

Vettel will be very hard for either to beat. Daniel Ricciardo however, should be rather easier. Therefore, though the WDC may be out of reach again (by a little or a lot?), the WCC can be a real possibilty.



Ferrari
Another season, another set of hopes for the titles. This is beginning to look like the late 90's all over again. To be blunt, why are things going to be different this time? Do not think that just because the ruies have changed and everyone starts from zero, that this in itself means that Ferrari will suddenly be transformed. There is no real reason to think so. In fact, the team don't seem as good as Red Bull, so if anything, major regulation changes are prime conditions for the scud to lose yet more ground.

This may seem rather downbeat, but I have spent too many years stoking up high hopes during the pre-season only to see them dashed come the racing proper, as cold hard reality hits. Sadly, it seems there is no magic in F1. Alonso and Raikkonen could find themselves consigned to 4th and 5th places this season with not too many podiums.

This is though, pretty much the worse case scenario. Or is it? Are they going to do another 2012? I think not, and even if the worst happens, they should be fairly safe in 3rd in the constructors.

Having said all this, there are reasons to hope. Ferrari have realised that desperate times call for desperate measures(my-spacebar-has-gone-again,I-will-return-later-with-more...)

[rjbetty]

Ferrari (continued now I got the spacebar back (this keyboard is weird))

Right, as I was saying; desperate times call for desperate measures, and Ferrari have responded by enlisting the help of an old friend: The 2014 Ferrari will enjoy input from none other than Rory Byrne. The last car he was in charge of was the F2004... His previous 3 designs in particular were quite good too. But is this 'comeback' going to be glorious, or reflect his former colleague Schumacher's (very respectable but ultimately not as hoped)? Or will he go down the Patrick Head route by still living in the 80s? I don't think so. Byrne's involvement should be a benefit. This, and the involvement of James Allison (credited with much of Lotus' strong form in recent years), plus seemingly finally having the use of a decent windtunnel, give some hope to close the gap.

Apart from this though, the fact is that Ferrari are still not as cutting edge as Red Bull, if we face facts. Therefore, in the cold light of day, why should we expect Ferrari to beat Red Bull in 2014? I hope they can, and have both drivers running strongly. Even if they don't achieve their aims, it would be so great to see them stirring the pot at least some of the time.

Ferrari are experts in reliability, but it's hard to tell where they are with their powerplant. It's not looking like the best.

The arrival of Kimi Raikkonen has an unknown effect. It will shake things up for better or for worse. I feel it will be both, but more of the latter. There are now too many egos in the team, and this all looks very volatile. If there are any on track issues - team-mate collisions, or getting lost on performance again, this could all come to a head. There definitely seems to be a lot of underlying resentment between top members of the team - and I can't remember any time recently when a team in this sort of situation has secured any titles - that is the simple fact.

Now some eccentric fans are claiming Raikkonen is the best driver in the world and will come in and show Fernando around. This reminds me of when Fisichella joined Renault for 2005 and many people, notably respected journalist Tony Dodgins made bold declarations and predictions for Fisi. My feelings to that at the time were "I don't know where you get your confidence" (in Albert Wesker's voice (some of you may know what that means if you completed RE:CVX))

But Raikkonen is too comfortable in his own skin to be rattled like Fisi was. I think it will be more like the Hamilton/Button partnership at McLaren. I truly believe that if Fernando is himself, he should definitely come out on top.

However, Alonso may not really be himself these days. He has shown weakness, to quote someone else, and I have felt that he is now in decline and we have now seen the best of Fernando, even before anyone mentioned it last year. I personally wonder if the Grosjean incident at Spa 2012 has had an effect on Alonso. He hasn't seemed quite the same since then. And with his bad relationship with the team, he could well be vulnerable and his performance will be affected. Therefore it could very well be like McLaren 2011 where Kimi may actually score more points as Fernando somewhat self-destructs. Button may have scored more points than Lewis in 2011, but there is a difference between this, and being the best driver.

Unfortunately, if this does happen to Fernando, then we will never hear the end of it from Kimi fans. So it's very important that Alonso does himself justice. He doesn't have to beat 2012, but to match or just about match will pretty much guarantee his defeat of Raikkonen. Whatever happens, I just hope that it's representative and the truth is revealed.



Lotus - Renault
Oh dear. As someone said, is Lotus going the way of the original Lotus...? Their financial problems are well known, and their 2014 budget seems almost entirely based on Maldonado's dodgy money. This is bad, but it's still possible for a team to punch above their weight in this situation.

Except that they have suffered a severe brain drain as their best members have left due to the situation. It is this, more than the lack of money, that looks set to send Lotus stumbling to the midfield. The team seem much less prepared than Red Bull, who have been expending a massive diligent effort for 2(?) years. The reality is that when you compare the two teams' preparations, the conclusion is that Lotus should be nowhere near Red Bull.

New regulation changes always seem to bring changes to the form book. Like Jens said, this could be compared to BAR's 2004 to 2005, to illustrate how much a year can change things. Lotus 2013 and BAR 2004 seem pretty similar.

The team is still too good and their drivers too strong to do a Williams 2011/13 I'm sure, but a big step back seems inevitable. My prediction is that they will have similar form to what they had in 2011. It could even be slightly worse.

How this affects Romain Grosjean is yet to be seen. The star has often talked about his hopes of winning his first grand prix. 2014 will be another stern test for him as having tasted life at the front, he may have to accept a step back for now. Hopefully, he will understand and use what could well be years, to keep developing himself, building his character, and prepare for his time to come later in his career. Hopefully he can have a bigger picture view and overcome the inevitable disappointment. Romain's transformation in 2013 shows hope that he does have the mental strength to eventually come through this, and he will be stronger and better for it, able to capitalise when like Button, his time finally comes.

Pastor Maldonado has shown enough for us to know he does have talent, but we know that's not why he has this seat. Any hopes of front running may be dashed as he finds he's not much further up than he was at Williams. Pastor has shown a very different attitude to Grosjean and he could well self-destruct (and take the team down with him thru reckless crashes etc). Few expect him to topple Romain, and rightly so.

Yet there is hope for the Venezuelan hothead. Despite showing signs of being a true sociopath/psychopath (seriously), he has at least shown some capacity to be able to learn. See the second half of 2012, where he did sort of realise he needed to calm down a bit. In all fairness, he did curb himself and if you look objectively and fairly, there wasn't that much he did wrong in terms of crashes etc from then on. It was all in the first half of 2012. This carried over into 2013.

Therefore, Maldonado may not be a totally hopeless case. There is the possible potential for a transformation of sorts if the guy can show some maturity and just concentrate on himself. Unfortunately, it's probably much more likely he will be rattled by Grosjean and get his knickers in a massive twist, causing problems for all.

I expect nothing better than Renault 2007/2011/McLaren 2013 kind of form from Lotus in 2014, and depending on Maldonado and other things, they could have trouble with Force India too.

[rjbetty]

Grand Prix 2

I've also decided to run a season on Grand Prix 2. I used Grand Prix 4 last year but it is a terrible game with massive glitches, and it also gave the result of Perez as champion and Vettel 8th after a strange season.

I find that GP2 is the most reliable. I've used Steven Young's brilliant GP2Edit32 to edit the game for 2014, and used a 2013 mod from grandprix2.de which I updated for 2014. I have been careful to give realistic qualifying and race values for the drivers and engine power and reliability values for the cars.

But there is no DRS, KERS, ERS, or anything else, and pit stops have to be done the traditional way with refuelling and different fuel loads in the race. There is also no Pirelli and qualifying has to be a single 20min session, as I find that best simulates the 3 stage qualifying F1 has now. Kobayashi and van der Garde are the Caterham drivers, and as Grand Prix 2 obliges you to run with 26 cars, HRT-Renault with de la Rosa and Karthikeyan and Scorpion-Ferrari with Razia and Senna join the field.

So here we go

1.Australia - Melbourne
Starting Grid
1.Ricciardo - a great way to start in a top team
2.Vettel
3.Hamilton +0.4
4.Raikkonen +0.4
5.Rosberg +0.5
6.Magnussen +0.7 - what an amazing debut qualifying
7.Alonso +1.0 - struggling a bit
8.Hulkenberg
9.Bottas
10.Vergne
11.Grosjean
12.Kvyat
13.Sutil
14.Maldonado
15.Button - couldn't set a representative time
16.Perez
17.Massa
18.Gutierrez - just 0.7 ahead of the Caterhams

Interesting to see the start and how the race goes. In fact I turned out letting the whole race run while I cleaned my friends dvds to go to the shop!

GO! Dan Ricciardo manages to just hold the lead to turn 1, the Ferrari's get a good start. But what's this? Magnussen has had a stormer. Surely he can't go all the way. He does! He takes the lead from 6th on the grid. And woah! Contact at the back, a Caterham lifts of the ground slightly, spinning round. It's Kobayashi. He spins into Sutil. I made the cars a little stronger as they are in real life these days and both manage to survive though Sutil is dead last. Kobayashi only dropped a few places.

So lap 1, Magnussen leads but Ricciardo lines him up into turn 1 and is through. Later in the lap Vettel does the same and sets about closing the 1.4sec gap to his team-mate. The Ferrari's got into 4th and 5th at the start with the Mercedes cars behind. After a few laps, one Mercedes get's through and eventually both lead the Ferraris, but the 4 run in close formation through the first 15 laps. Raikkonen retakes 4th from Rosberg.

There is the strange sight of a retirement on lap 7 - Sergio Perez in the Force India from 17th. Button has had a terrible start as are the Lotuses. Grosjean is the highest of the 3 in 15th. The Toro Rosso's of Vergne and impressively, Kvyat are running in the top 10.

Magnussen holds 3rd for a while, but once Hamilton get's through, the closely following Ferraris and Rosberg very quickly follow suit devoting the Dane to 7th. His pace is dropping off but he has a big lead from Hulkenberg, who retires, and the Toro Rossos. The 2nd retirement is Kvyat, from the top 10. Then Rosberg is out too - possibly a major title contender gone already.

Through the early laps Ricciardo leads and the Aussie crowd hope for home success, but Vettel is the fastest and catching. Of the group behind, the Mercedes and Ferraris are only a few tenths to equal to Ricciardo, but only Lewis is really matching him. Vettel takes the lead around lap 7 into turn 1, with the others 6+sec behind. But sensationally, Ricciardo retakes the lead into turn 2! I can imagine the crowd cheering. Next time round though, the inevitable happens and Vettel hangs Ricciardo out to dry into turn 1 costing him momentum and protecting himself. He now pulls out a lead.

Around lap 12-15 and going through backmarkers, a car has spun at turn 13: amazingly it's Vettel!! He has spun and cars pass him left and right but he recovers quickly to 5th. Ricciardo is still generally 2nd fastest and has a gap to Lewis and co. Could it be? Also, at the same time, Magnussen has spun from a clear 7th behind the top 3 teams into turn 8 and drops right down the field.

Raikkonen pits relatively early, and OMGosh, Vettel is off again, breaking his wing this time. This is a very Schumacher 2003 start to the season and already doesn't seem as perfect as 2013. This compromises his strategy and he exits 14th behind Kobayashi, a minute down. van der Garde ran 13th in the opening laps and consistently in the top 15 as others retired. Maldonado pits with mechanical issues. Grosjean retires from the top 10.

Vergne is quietly impressing in 5th, around 1.3sec per lap off his old team-mate Ricciardo. The group behind, led by Bottas aren't getting within 2.0sec really.

Around lap 30 Ricciardo pits from the lead. Lewis takes the lead, pitting a couple of laps later having consistently stayed just over 2sec off Ricciardo. He exits behind, and Raikkonen now takes 2nd on a two-stopper. Alonso is now about 12sec off Ricciardo. Vettel meanwhile catches Vergne in 5th but both have to pit again.

Later in the race, Sutil is making his way up the field. van der Garde is impressively close to the points and Kobayashi is about 4.5sec behind throughout the race. The Caterham is hanging onto Gutierrez through merit and the gap stays around 1sec.

Around lap 40, Lewis takes the lead of Ricciardo. The Australian's pace then drops a bit as he seems to let his head drop a bit now. Raikkonen is also through but Kimi pits again while the others don't have to stop. Vettel also stops and is now mega fast setting a fastest lap almost 0.6sec faster than his previous best. But with just over 15 laps left he is 32sec behind Raikkonen, who himself is 30sec off the lead in 4th, and out of contention for a podium, unless any more retirements come.

Further back, van der Garde takes Gutierrez fair and square, but Maldonado is less than 20sec behind. At the same time as this Sutil makes his way up through his team-mate and the Caterhams, and gives chase to Massa, who VDG is going quicker than.

There are to be no more and in the end Hamilton takes the chequered flag 12sec ahead of Ricciardo, who despite the defeat still did a great job. Alonso took a great 3rd a further 10sec back after his bad qualifying. Kimi was over 10sec back in 4th and Vettel a way back in 5th. Vergne was easily best of the rest consolidating an easy 6th. Button eventually got by Bottas having raced him for a long time, while Magnussen eventually recovered to 9th. Sutil got by Massa for the final point before the end. Not bad considering he was last behind even the HRTs and Scorpions after lap 1.

Australia Result
1.Hamilton
2.Ricciardo
3.Alonso
4.Raikkonen
5.Vettel
6.Vergne
7.Button
8.Bottas
9.Magnussen
10.Sutil
11.Massa
12.Maldonado
13.van der Garde
14.Gutierrez
15.Kobayashi
16.Bianchi
17.Chilton

I won't go into much detail for the rest. The first race is always the most interesting.



As for the rest of my 2014 F1 preview:

McLaren-Mercedes
The good news is that McLaren do remain a top organisation and surely they won't suffer as badly this year. 2014 may be to 2013 as 2008 was to 2007 for Renault, an improvement.

Remember that McLaren had marginally the fastest car, in qualifying trim anyway, as recently as 2012. They aren't going to sink right down. Ron Dennis retaking CEO position should help. Though he's not as likeable as Martin Whitmarsh, I guess he can be tougher maybe and do the tough stuff that may be needed. So I predict that McLaren will pull ahead of the midfield, but at the same time the 3 works teams will have a huge advantage, so McLaren may take the position Mercedes had in 2011 of being in a no-mans land as 4th best, especially since Lotus look set to drop back a bit. I think pace-wise they may only therefore, only make a smal improvement, Jenson being 1.0-1.2sec or so off the pace, maybe 1.5 if the gaps are really big through the field.

Hopefully the fact this season shouldn't be as bad as last year should inspire Jenson a bit more, as should his new team-mate Kevin Magnussen who's flair should push JB further. But Jenson can sense his job may be in danger for 2015. How will this affect him?

Wins? Ohhh I'm not sure. How about podiums this time. That seems realistic. I wouldn't expect more than 2 wins max though even in the best case scenario. But overall a decent enough recovery ready for 2015.

I don't know what to expect from Kevin Magnussen. He does seem like he should deliver a lot more than his dad. Is Jan really his dad? Has that much time gone since 1998? Am I now old? It's his potential that McLaren are interested in and he seems to be applying himself well. I can't really see him matching Jenson for speed first year round, but then Perez outqualified him 10-9... I think Magnussen could actually finish 8th in the WDC. I don't think he will be totally inconsistent and down the pack.