The fall of McLaren

[jens]

McLaren is a team about who it is often said that they can start out badly, but everything is still fine, because they always bounce back. How about now? Would you expect them to reinstate themselves as frontrunners again in late 2013? Or in 2014? In 2015? Or when?

Much has been made of the fall of Williams actually ever since the departure of Renault & Newey. They still won races in 2001-04, but that was the end of their frontrunning era. McLaren hasn't won a title for some time now though have been winning races each year.

However, could McLaren be looking at a long-term low like they themselves faced in the mid-90's, when they were also looking around for new engine suppliers? Unlike other "slow starts" into the seasons McLaren seems to be facing bigger obstacles this time. During previous "slow starts" (like 2004/09) McLaren was a consistent team - Mercedes' works team with one of the biggest budgets on the grid and top designers. How about now? They are not a works team any more, I am not sure they have one of the biggest budgets any more (are also going to lose Vodafone at the end of the year), have lost chief designer Paddy Lowe.

Then 2014 seems like a transition year as a private team, while we prepare for a 2015 McLaren-Honda partnership. A bit like Williams-Mecachrome/Supertec in 1998/1999. 2015 is another transition/build up year. And then again we still do not know if this partnership could reach the heights of the former McLaren-Honda glory or is it going to be more like the BAR story.

Button must be having flashbacks to 2007 and his Honda experience. BAR had a promising second half of 2006 and Button genuinely thought he could be a title contender in 07 - how horribly wrong that went! In the same way McLaren had a very promising second half of 2012, yet it hasn't worked out at all for this year. And we know, how difficult Honda found it to re-build the team. They had to hire a lot of new staff including Ross Brawn in their search for competitiveness.

Thoughts on the struggles of McLaren? Do you still view them as a genuine top team, a match to RBR/Ferrari over a full season? What about the rise of Mercedes/Lotus? If you were a driver, would you now consider these two teams as a better long-term prospect in getting a drive if you had a choice?

[christophulus]

After believing that Williams were definitely back to being front runners after their massive improvement in 2012, I now no longer believe I am capable of making predictions! However, McLaren may have to adjust to being a bit of an also-ran for the time being.

Red Bull have pretty much unlimited money from fizzy water sales, which means they can keep Newey and Vettel tied up for a while, and Ferrari have much the same - limitless resources and a top driver. Even Mercedes are pretty secure for as long as the parent company wants to keep pumping money into the team.

McLaren, like Williams, don't really have any of that at present, and their two current drivers don't inspire me with confidence. And I don't have a lot of faith in their design team - when was the last season they started out looking like they had a really good car? 2008? I think they need a major shake up over the winter and learn quickly next year to get to a position to come out strong in 2015.

The only advantage over Williams is they still seem to be able to tie up the major sponsors - I heard GlaxoSmithKline are probably going to be the title sponsor going forward? Seems how Williams seem to be changing engine suppliers every couple of years I don't hold out much hope for them re-emerging, sadly.

[steveaki13]

Mclaren are a strange case.

Remember 80's and 90 and 91 and they were able to design champion challengers every year.

1998-2001 they were a front runner.

Then started a weird pattern of good season bad season.

2002s Car was 3rd best just but Ferrari were dominant and Williams were 2nd. Even Renuault kept them honest early 2002.

2003 gave Kimi a title challenger

2004 started as a midfield car, before improving it towards the end.

2005 An awesome car. Fastest around and should have won the title.

2006 Poor car. 3rd and sometimes 4th best.

2007 & 2008 were good cars.

2009 A poor midfield car.

2010-2012 Decent cars

2013 Again a donkey of a car.


A stop start pattern which has little reason to my eyes.

[wedge]

They're going through a transition period right now.

Too early to right them off. They've had their ups and downs and not as bad as Ferrari's between Scheckter and Schumi.

Though they really need a top class driver who can maximise the car regardless how good or bad the car is. So far Perez isn't that type of driver and still a work in progress which makes you wonder how they analysed Perez.

[Rollo]

So far Perez isn't that type of driver and still a work in progress which makes you wonder how they analysed Perez.

I think that they "analysed" Perez very very well.



Claro Americas is a subsidiary of América Móvil which is a Carlos Slim company. Carlos Slim has been the richest person in the world since 2010.

Two things:
1. Perez is only 23
2. Even if he deserves to be "punched in the face" he potentially brings an awful lot of cash to McLaren.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if McLaren sports an entirely different set of colours next year in line with Mr Slim's adverts. They may even be sky blue if they get Telmex colours.

[N. Jones]

I think it is because Hamilton and his speed are gone. Maybe some engineers left with him?

[Ranger]

Don't throw McLaren under the bus yet. They came back from a hopeless start in 2009 and ended up winning twice.

Though they really need a top class driver who can maximise the car regardless how good or bad the car is. So far Perez isn't that type of driver and still a work in progress which makes you wonder how they analysed Perez.

Has everyone already forgotten last year's flashes of brilliance?

For all of his apparent clowning around yesterday, he was ahead of Jenson for most of the afternoon.

If he reigns in his aggression, he will be very good.

[jens]

I think it is a bit harsh to blame Button too. For all his apparent weaknesses, he got lots of podiums and often started from the first two rows, when the car was good. Even finished second in WDC (2011), fifth in both 2010 and 2012. Right now he is only 10th, been far from any podiums. So obviously the car is much worse this year.

Don't throw McLaren under the bus yet. They came back from a hopeless start in 2009 and ended up winning twice.

They can certainly win a race or two each season, especially in changeable conditions.
But they are still going to finish only 5th in WCC this year, at best.
Question is - can they challenge for the title or get anywhere near the frontrunners over a full season? For some reason I doubt we are going to see it for a few years now.

It looks like the balance of powers is changing in F1. Mercedes is on an upward-swing. For all those tyre-troubles they have had they look like a team, who can become a major challenger very soon. A bit like McLaren in 1997. They had lots of reliability problems that year, but were fast and got some wins before the rule changes in 1998...

On the other hand both Williams and Benetton seemed on a downward spiral in 1997, even though they were still competitive. Renault was going to pull out and they were in the process of succumbing to the improvement of Ferrari and McLaren. Those changes in the balance of power aren't visible immediately, but it is a long-term process. In the same way I feel McLaren has lost or is losing its position in the pecking order and has to rebuild its former strength in the Honda era. Like Williams had to rebuild in co-operation with BMW. Or McLaren themselves with Mercedes in mid-90's.

I remember back in 2008 I considered McLaren as the most complete team on the grid, I did even after the slow start in 2009. Even if they didn't have the fastest car, the team all-around was performing very well (strategy, team operations, setup, reliability, etc). Certainly by now they have dropped the ball and gone backwards. Regardless of the speed of the car, they have been making so many mistakes in team operations (seen in 2012) that the have already lost the ground compared to where they were five years ago.

[christophulus]

Don't throw McLaren under the bus yet. They came back from a hopeless start in 2009 and ended up winning twice.

That's exactly the problem, they start too slowly. Perhaps they waste so much time and resources catching up in the current year that they haven't got time to get on top of next year's car.

Maybe it's a fallback to the days of unlimited testing? Ten years ago Ferrari and McLaren could basically spend their way out of trouble by running test days all through the season. I mean, throw enough money at a problem and it'll start to go away.

It kind of reminds me of a big corporation - massively inefficient and unable to adapt to the "new" F1 - (fewer resources and more restrictive rules) in the way the smaller teams do.

[steveaki13]

That's exactly the problem, they start too slowly. Perhaps they waste so much time and resources catching up in the current year that they haven't got time to get on top of next year's car.

Maybe it's a fallback to the days of unlimited testing? Ten years ago Ferrari and McLaren could basically spend their way out of trouble by running test days all through the season. I mean, throw enough money at a problem and it'll start to go away.

It kind of reminds me of a big corporation - massively inefficient and unable to adapt to the "new" F1 - (fewer resources and more restrictive rules) in the way the smaller teams do.

This could be it.

For one of the biggest and best run teams in F1, they cant seem to produce great car after great car these days.