Team-mate battles of 2013

[jens]

Didn't find such thread after a quick glance. Last year we had some discussions and conclusions as well. Now the new season is about to begin. Which are going to be the most exciting battles and which ones the most one-sided?

Red Bull: Well, Webber seems to have entered the „Barrichello territory“ with his career already, when you almost surely expect him to get left behind by his multiple-WDC team-mate, because it simply always happens. The main question is whether he can again actually keep up with Vettel for half a season or will he get left behind early this time like in 2011?

Ferrari: Same story here, you'd naturally expect Massa to get beaten. But will he collect more or less than 50% of Alonso's points? Because based on three past seasons this would be the rough figure about how their seasons would pan out.

McLaren: A more exciting duel. Button starts out as a natural favourite. It is unclear, how fast can Pérez be, but unless he happens to be not only a fast, but a very complete driver this year, you'd expect the very experienced Englishman to collect more points with his usual smart racing and consistent scoring.

Lotus: Another pairing of a consistent world champion and an erratic younger driver. You'd expect Grosjean to crash less this time (it would be pretty bad if he didn't!), but nonetheless he leaves an aura of an erratic driver, who you'd expect to be less consistent than Räikkönen, even if points-wise it could be closer this year.

Mercedes: Rosberg's big moment of truth. Allegedly he avoided joining Hamilton at McLaren in 2008, but this time it didn't work out. Can he rise to the occasion and prove to be another top driver on the grid or will his career descend into another Barrichello/Coulthard/Webber-style career – racing alongside a top driver for many years, but always getting left behind?

Sauber: I am afraid this could be one of the most one-sided battles. I hold Hülkenberg's skills in high esteem and based on what I have seen, Gutiérrez leaves an impression of an erratic driver, even though he can be fast at times. Even more so this is Mexican's rookie season.

Force India: In contrast should be one of the closest battles, a re-match of 2011. A crucial year for both drivers, because getting beaten is likely to end a career here.

Williams: Another interesting battle. Maldonado is fast, he showed that alongside Barrichello and last year, when he qualified into top3 on four occasions. But this is not enough if you are struggling to get to the chequered flag. What can Bottas do? Can he impress enough like his compatriot Räikkönen did dozen years ago and become an object of interest for top teams even in his debut season? I think this year can potentially put big pressure on Maldonado especially if there is a driver fast enough to qualify as high as he does. And in such tense battle I'd expect Bottas to edge ahead (mentally as well), like Kovalainen edged Fisichella in 2007.

Toro Rosso. 2012 was inconclusive. Vergne scored more points with some very good results (especially in the wet), but Ricciardo seemed a tad more consistent and a better qualifier. A crucial year for both and crucial to have a good car as well to showcase skills.

Caterham: Little between them, but would expect Pic to be slightly better as he is younger with more long-term potential.

Marussia: Despite testing disadvantage I expect Bianchi to get the better of the two. Actually I think Bianchi may well be the best driver of the backmarker bunch.

[EuroTroll]

For me, the team-mate battles at Mercedes and Williams are the most interesting.

Mercedes:
This is the first season when Rosberg can be directly compared to a top driver in his prime. I think we will see him come out of this comparison with his head held high. I do think NR is a top driver himself, and he will prove that this season. I'm willing to bet my signature that Nico will outscore Lewis this season. Any takers?

Williams:
Maldonado is quick, but Bottas could turn out to be quicker. Possibly another Finnish star in the making. Will he be consistent in the races, though? That is the question. It will be very interesting to watch his progress.

Otherwise, I think:
- Vettel >> Webber
- Alonso >> Massa
- Button = Perez
- Räikkönen > Grosjean
- Hülkenberg >> Gutierrez
- Sutil > di Resta
- Vergne = Ricciardo
- Pic > van der Garde
- Bianchi >> Chilton

[rjbetty]

Brilliant post Jens. Well done for posting this thread. I was waiting for someone to do so.

Here are my choices for 2013

Red Bull: Sebastian Vettel - Will only keep getting better while Webber looks like he's past his best, and is basically admitting as much (it may be that he doesn't even realise that)

Ferrari: Fernando Alonso - Though I think Massa can very VERY well score more than 50% of Alonso's points total: He easily managed to do so in the second half of last year where he achieved 80% IIRC.

McLaren: Jenson Button - I think Perez will seriously cause him problems at times, and may surprise with his raw speed, but other times will be too inconsistent and may crash, so overall Jenson's experience will win through.

Lotus: Kimi Raikkonen - Kimi's WRC absence seemed to disadvantage him more in 2012 than Grosjean's semi-rookie status, given the way that it was the Iceman who was the one to come on as the season wore on. He should carry this momentum and beat Grosjean on points, and maybe also now be ahead in qualifying too.

Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton - though if the car is really that strong that it can be an outsider for the title, Rosberg's performances, races included, may very well spike. On his best form, he could get much closer than expected to a Hamilton who needs to fully settle in. But I just cannot see Ham being beaten fair and square (only if he were to beat himself as in 2011 - don't see it happening)

Sauber: Nico Hulkenberg - no contest. It could be like Villeneuve and Zonta in 1999, though I don't Esteban will be that bad.

Force India: Paul di Resta - I expect Paul to win this one with an ease that will surprise people. Sutil did indeed outpoint and outqualify him in 2011, but the obvious reason is that it was only Paul's first year while it was Sutil's 5th... Paul has since improved and will now be ahead of Adrian, though it should still be fairly close; no more than a couple of tenths in it I'd say.

Williams: Pastor Maldonado - A tough one, can Bottas really do a Kovalainen on Pastor? That would seriously impress me. I am keeping expectations in check and thought Valtteri may trail Maldonado by +0.4sec, but I really don't know. I just recall 2010 with Hulkenberg, and how amazingly my prediction turned out exactly true.* I'm guessing Maldonado's experience will win through, though I can see him going off the rails if Bottas beats him.

*In fact, basically every single of my 2010 predictions did, almost to perfection, which is absurdly bizarre yet amazingly true... Never been able to replicate it since.

Toro Rosso: Daniel Ricciardo - I'm just guessing. Dan had half a season's experience over JEV, but the gulf in qualifying cannot be accounted for just on that. Really hoping you get that podium Dan.

Caterham: Charles Pic - I'm a bit surprised people are expecting it to be so close, since for one thing Pic has a year's experience. I'm not sure he's quite as good as Pic anyway, so a fairly easy win for Charles.

Marussia: Jules Bianchi - Should perform at least as well as Pic, probably a little better maybe. I think this will be enough to see off Chilton well.

[jens]

Williams: Pastor Maldonado - A tough one, can Bottas really do a Kovalainen on Pastor? That would seriously impress me. I am keeping expectations in check and thought Valtteri may trail Maldonado by +0.4sec, but I really don't know. I just recall 2010 with Hulkenberg, and how amazingly my prediction turned out exactly true.* I'm guessing Maldonado's experience will win through, though I can see him going off the rails if Bottas beats him.

Williams is indeed quite tricky. Actually I do expect Maldonado to be slightly faster in qualifying trim. But based on last year, Maldonado's racing is anything but consistent. And I expect Bottas to be close enough to Maldonado to capitalize on any off-form the Venezuelan might have.

I think Pastor was overconfident last year, because Senna was so far off him (especially in qualifying) that he didn't really have proper competition. So he could keep making mistakes and still look decent and confident. In 2011 he didn't have any expectations and any time he was close to Barrichello, it looked good - "not bad for a paydriver".

But now Pastor is a team leader and if Bottas is really good, Maldonado has only one option - raise his game and get rid of lack of awareness in racing, if he still wants to come out of this season looking like a decent promising driver. It is a new task for him. I am not convinced Pastor has the mentality to really improve to a level of being a properly complete driver, but maybe he proves me wrong.

Maldonado is fast, but I suspect he was made look better by Senna last year. For all the speed he has, I don't think he is a top driver in the making or can match them in the same team. And getting shown up by a young hotshot can have a negative consequence. In contrast Grosjean has sort of gone through "hell" by now. He was paired with a really good driver in 2012, struggled to match him consistently, made mistakes and as a result looked a bit embarrassing by the end of the season. But Grosjean has gone through that bad patch by now, he has had time to reflect on the experience of racing alongside a top driver and can improve this season. Maldonado is yet to go through this.

[steveaki13]

Red Bull - I think Seb will dominate this battle with almost 2011 preportions. He has had such an advantage over Mark in previous years, you just cant see any other outcome. From Marks point of view he needs a couple of wins and see if he can get a decent run going and too see what can happen.

Ferrari - I hope to see Felipe continue his late 2012 form and help back up Alonso, however I fear a similar story to last season. As for Fernando he will lose out too. Last year had Felipe been up with him, he may have taken some vital points from Vettel.

Mclaren - A key year for Jenson. I think he will be typical Jenson. He will collect points and win a couple of races at least, if its a decent car he could challenge for the title. He has this one season to be a clear number 1 and he needs to beat Perez. If Sergio beats him reguarlyI think Jensons career will approach the end.

Lotus- I think Grosjean will still make a lot of unforced errors and fancy Kimi will beat him much easier this season. Can Kimi move up after his win last year? Who knows but if he can win a couple of Races he may launch a championship push.

Mercedes - This should be very interesting, as many have said a few times If Nico can match Lewis some times then we may finally know that Nico is a top line driver. Until now he has beaten only poor team mates at Williams on the whole and only edged out an old Champion maybe past his best in Schumi.
This is his big year. A chance to beat a driver we all know as one of the fastest

Williams - I think Bottas will be the better driver in the long term, will he manage it this season. Who knows, but I can see him movig ahead during the season.

Sauber - Nico Hulkenberg should beat Gutierrez easily I think.

Force India - If Paul loses out to Slash, then his career will halt, but if he can soundly beat him he may still have a chance of a better drive somewhere.

A key year for di Resta. 3 seasons of good and bad. He needs to step it up.

Toro Rosso - A solid pair but not much that is going to bother teams ahead. Ricciardo should come out ahead.

Caterham - Pic has that one season experience and I think he will win the second division, although Van Der Garde should put in some OK performances. Caterham need signs of improvement.

Marussia - I see Chilton as battlig just to start 21st, but I hope he keeps battling away and works hard, but I see Bianchi winning the battle, but can they challenge or beat Caterham

Those are my toughts

[keysersoze]

Vettel>Webber, the usual gap
Alonso>Massa, not close but closer than last season
Button>Perez, but Sergio will acquit himself well
Hamilton>Rosberg, Sorry, but LH is one of the all-time greats
Grosjean>Raikonnen, lots of respect for Kimi, but RG is one quick mo-fo
Sutil=di Resta, not brave enough to call this one
Hulkenberg>Gutierrez, though the Mexican will have some encouraging moments
Vergne>Ricciardo, though neither will do anything to prove they deserve a promotion
Pic>van der Garde
Bianchi>Chilton, but Max isn't as bad as we think

And drum roll:

Pastor>Bottas, Maldonado made a believer out of me last year, and I see this as a decisive win for the Venezuelan.

[Koz]

RedBull - > Vettel dominates as usualy.

McLaren -> Perez will do well, but Button will be more consistent ant, and will walk away with more points.

Ferrari -> Alonso will beat Massa, but Massa will be within 80% of the points. Prepare for more whining from Alonso.

Lotus -> Grosjean will be faster than Kimi, especially in qualifying. Kimi's experience will shine through.

Mercedes -> Lewis will throughly thrash Rosberg, unless he loses his head - which he will if the car isn't great.

Sauber -> The Hulk all the way. Esteban is a little too inexperienced.

FI -> Sutil should be better, slightly.

TR -> Could go either way.

Williams -> The Pastor will be faster, but still an idiot. Bottas will be much more consistent.

[rjbetty]

I'm really surprised at how much people are rating Sutil above di Resta. As I see it, Sutil beat him in 2011 due to having more experience, while it was only Paul's first year. With 2 seasons experience behind him, I expect him to now have the measure of Sutil, especially as Adrian has been out for a year.

[millencolin]

The only one I will be really focusing on is the Toro Rosso battle. If one driver beats the other big time, they will have a future in this sport while the loser will be banished. But if it is inconclusive like last year, I think Red Bull will ditched both of them and bring in the next two candidates for F1.

[jens]

I'm really surprised at how much people are rating Sutil above di Resta. As I see it, Sutil beat him in 2011 due to having more experience, while it was only Paul's first year. With 2 seasons experience behind him, I expect him to now have the measure of Sutil, especially as Adrian has been out for a year.

Well, in 2012 di Resta wasn't a rookie any more and even though he started out well, faded in late season. So he really needs to keep up his performance level to come out on top. I don't think there is much difference between the overall ability of di Resta and Sutil. Both are very solid, pretty good drivers. So a lot will depend on momentary form of either driver.