Flatter to Deceive

[rjbetty]

This thread is to nominate teams and drivers which are most likely to have looked good in testing but will turn out to be rubbish when the season proper starts. Obviously Mercedes are a prime candidate but which others may stand out?

Also, we can nominate teams and drivers for the opposite, meaning they will not look special in testing, but come the first race will set the track alight!

Also, I'd be really interested to hear the best cases from the past too!


I'm thinking maybe Sauber are actually going to do quite well this year after all. The feel and mood of the team and Hulkenberg is one of quiet confidence, as though they are not showing their hand yet. As usual as I said, I think Mercedes will do less well in the season than they might appear in testing.

I also think Chilton and Marussia will qualify over 5sec off the pace, even though they seem to look quicker.

The most infamous example from the past I can think of of a team looking steaming hot in testing but greatly disappointing at the first race is Prost in 2001. Everyone was talking about them. Alesi was so confident and was gushing about the car being 4 seconds faster than the 2000 one. Nigel Roebuck and others in Autosport were even talking about him being a dark horse for victory in Melbourne! In reality, he qualified 3sec off the pace in 14th and the rest of the season was little better. Sauber in 2010 are also quite a good one.

Ferrari in 2004 were unexpectedly good after looking so-so in pre-season testing.

[Koz]

I don't know why but I have a feeling it will be Lotus and Merc who disappoints the most. Kinda like the 2009 BMW Sauber.

[rjbetty]

Oh I really hope not with Lotus. But then I felt that way before 2005. I felt the team had run out of ideas to keep developing and fall back to maybe 5th, as theyeep up; but they went on to have their best season yet. They continoued the upward trend yet fuirther.

I sadly imagine it could very well be as you say, but then given the 2011 car would have been pretty good if Kubica was on board, which would have helped the team not lose their way. The 2012 car was maybe the best of all in the first half of last year. The team are able to make very good cars, so it's very possible this year's iteration could close the gap a good amount more. I fear however, that Ferrari McLaren and Red Bull might be too far ahead this time, though I think they can beat Mercedes.

Though testing means 'nothing', actually I think it DOES count for something, even if very little. I mean you could tell that Benetton in 2001, Jaguar in 2002, Honda in 2007 and McLaren in 2009 or example were going to have bad seasons. I believe I can already see for example that Mercedes and Hamilton are NOT going to be right at the front challenging for regular wins and the WDC, though as my favourite driver I so want him to...

[steveaki13]

Its most likely to be Mercedes I suppose. Its hard to decide but they have most to lose as they have the top level driver now, a decent first half season last year. With these things people are expecting a step forward. Like BMW after nearly getting a title for Kubica they went knowwhere slowly in 2009. As did Mclaren.

[AndyL]

Though testing means 'nothing', actually I think it DOES count for something, even if very little. I mean you could tell that Benetton in 2001, Jaguar in 2002, Honda in 2007 and McLaren in 2009 or example were going to have bad seasons. I believe I can already see for example that Mercedes and Hamilton are NOT going to be right at the front challenging for regular wins and the WDC, though as my favourite driver I so want him to...

Also remember in 2009 how we were all convinced that Brawn were doing low-fuel glory runs to try to attract a sponsor, and then it turned out the car actually was that fast! While times on any particular day don't mean much, the trends over multiple tests can be revealing.

I don't think Mercedes are a good candidate for your original question - so far they're not looking particularly good in testing! They've lost 2 days to mechanical faults and their new driver says they don't have enough downforce.

[wedge]

This thread is to nominate teams and drivers which are most likely to have looked good in testing but will turn out to be rubbish when the season proper starts. Obviously Mercedes are a prime candidate but which others may stand out?

How did you come up with that?

On the contrary Merc have not started well.

Crap reliability in its first two days then at the end Lewis admitted the car severely lacks the downforce compared to what he was used to at McLaren.

Depending on one's expectations they'll be playing catch up in testing and at the start of the season proper. Lewis will win race(s) in the first part of the year because of tyre lottery. Mediocre in the middle part of the year onwards whilst pinning hopes on the next season.

Testing is notoriously difficult to read into. Making headlines over consistent lap times doesn't tell the whole story. Ferrari were woeful on the harder compounds in 2011; last season both Lotus and RBR were hampered over a single lap.