F1 Prediction before pre-season testing starts

[rjbetty]

1.McLaren - will again make a step to establish themselves as the quickest. Both drivers to win races, but Button to maybe lose consistency if trickier 2013 Pirellis go anywhere out of his seemingly narrow operating window. Perez to find life at the top tougher than expected. May surprise some with his raw pace at some tracks, but think he will try Martin Whitmarsh's patience with scrapes and crashes.

2.Ferrari - Alonso is feeling more confident tis time round. With DRS being banned in quali, the expectation is that Ferrari will be better here. This will help Alonso stop getting caught in crashes with Lotii and help him win more races. Ferrari do seem a lot better going into 2013. Alonso can win the title if he isn't too exhausted from last year. A rejuvenated Massa won't beat him, but may be close enough to cause friction. Massa always seems to finish well up in the table; in 3 bad years he ha ome 6th 6th and 7th. Therfoe I can see him coming say 4th this time.

3.Red Bull - It may be so bad that Red Bull get bumped down this far, but I don't think so. The team have comfortably won the last 3 WCCs and won't have lost all that ability, since they also seem quite good at maximising their potential. Adrian Newey is making noises about the law of diminishing returns i.e. it's gettin hard to keep coming up with legal ideas. Also with DRS being effectively banned for quali, that won't help them. Red Bull will however start the season as they ended the last - on great form. I don' know what to expect from Webber - he is 36 and it could possibly just be downhill from now on?

4.Lotus - aiming high for 3rd, but if McLaren are the best and Ferrari and Massa have signficantly improved, it will be hard to beat them, and Red Bull, who are able to get the points even if they aren't the quickest. May improve slightly but possibly not enough. Sadly Romain Grosjean seems to have been affected by criticism, so hpefully h doesn't lose his spark trying too hard. He needs to find his confidence and be allowed the freedom to make the occasional mistake, just not a catalogue of them like last year. Kimi will also now be bedded in and knows what he needs to do.

5.Mercedes - I don't expect a big leap forward from the team that keeps saying the same thing each year. They may even drop back sightly further. Thir drivers qualified on average about 0.7-0.8sec off the pace last year. I guestimate Lewis would have been say 0.55se off. I don't expect Lewis to be much better than 0.4sec off at best, nd more in the races. I think he will beat Nico, but Nico and the team may be revitalised by Lewis's hunger as opposed to a former megastar trying to find his way, and frankly seeming quite lost.

6.Sauber - Perez says the team can build on 2012 and win races. I hope this is true. I can see them slipping back however due to lack of funding. I still think Hulkenberg can get the car to a couple of podiums if not wins. Gutierrez may grab a surprise podium somewhere but otherwise I don't expect much he himself says he isn't ready and he is obviously there for money reasons.

7.Force India - oh dear, it's not looking good. I wonder how this will affect the car. I think they will have to go for Bianchi for Ferrari/money reasons. That means they will struggle to beat Sauber. If the car is unaffected by off-track issues I expect it to edge a little closer as they have done every year.

8.Williams - oh dear it's also not looking good. The team that made 2012 happen has key people leaving. They may therefore slip back during the year. Maldonado will have to be more consistent and reliable for the team to have any hope, if this is the case. I was hoping Williams could build on 2012 and take 5th in the WCC, an Pastor could challenge for a top 6 in the WDC.

9.Toro Rosso - much is not expected of this team, but they may surprise with their more experienced drivers, and weaker 2nd drivers for Sauber and Force India. Hopefully Ricciardo will get that podium. I think he needs it to keep Dr Marko off his back.

10.Caterham - I would put Marussia here, but if they sign Luis Razia I think they can forget it. If Caterham go for Petrov as I hope, he will get whatever result the car is capable of. But given that the 2013 car will simply be the 2012 car with few bits added on, it doesn't sound promising and the team may actually go backwards. t's a shame that Tony Fernandesseems to have lost interest.

11.Marussia - If the line up really is Chilton/Razia it will be a real waste of what is likely to actually be a promising car, and may keep them behind Caterham.




I might do another prediction after testing when it might be more accurate. But it will look better if this one comes true.

My 2012 preview (before testing) recap

1.McLaren - win constructors, drivers to take 2nd and 3rd, don't know who would be ahead, but went for Lewis.
2.Red Bull - drivers 1st and 5th in WDC, team 2nd behind McLaren
3.Ferrari - Alonso to recover to 4th in WDC and a slighly improved Massa to 7th.
4.Mercedes - Schumacher to finally fulfill some potential and tke 6th in WDC... *sighs*
5.Lotus - to fall into the clutches of Force India. Grosjean to be possibly quicker than Raikkonen early on.
6.Force India - to be a clear 6th, and chase Lotus. di Resta to score more points but be pipped in quali by Hulkenberg.
7.Sauber - to slip back and barely beat Toro Rosso and an improved Williams.
8.Toro Rosso - hard to tell. I thought they'd hold off Willams by the skin of their teeth. Vergne to be better in qual, Ricciardo in races!
9.An improved performance - much more points but probably still not enough to get higher than 9th in WCC.
10.Caterham - almost certain to score points, and maybe not just the one...
11.Marussia to finally finish ahead of HRT in the table.

Well I got some stuff right, but a lot spectacularly wrong...

[seb_sh]

I think the first 4 will be quite close seeing as it's the last year before new rules and there's little chance any one team can come up with a big technical advantage or suffer from a bad car disadvantage. The only joker probably is the new tyres and how each driver will cope with them. Mercedes will be a bit behind as last year but the drivers may be able to make up for it from time to time.

Sauber, Force India, Williams will probably be close in the standings with each one possibly having an edge depending on the track. Toro Rosso may get in the fight as well from time to time.

It seems the backmarkers will not improve or even fall behind even more.

[Garry Walker]

1.McLaren - will again make a step to establish themselves as the quickest..

Like in 2012? LOL.
They won't have a superior driver like Hamilton against better cars like RedBull to make them look good anymore.

[Knock-on]

I think the McLaren will be on par with RB or very close. Alonso (sorry, I mean Ferrari) will be a bit behind with Lotus and Mercedes putting in some stella, if erratic performances. I expect a few different winners again and don't think Seb will have it ll his own way.

Wildcard is Lewis who will get more out of that Merc than Rosberg ever did.

[steveaki13]

1. Red Bull - Sad to say, I think they may win the titles again this season quite comfortably. Hope not would like to see a different winner. Obviously Seb will finish ahead of Mark.

2. Ferrari - I think Alonso will be the closest to Vettel again and maybe the only real threat. Massa? Who knows. I hope he continues like he ended last season.

3. Mclaren - Jenson could get in the title mix if the Mclaren is a good car. However I fear he will only win the odd race maybe. While Perez is a bit unknown and I predict wont win this season.

4. Mercedes- I think Lewis might win this year maybe even 2 GPs. I am not sure that the Car will be good enough to challenge. Rosberg? Well this may finally be a chance to see what hes made of. To many seasons at Williams against poor team mates in Nakajima & Wurz. Then Schumacher who all but matched him over the 3 years and its not quite clear how good Schumacher was. This will be a test.

5. Lotus - I fancy a decent season, but due to the competition they may finish a disappointing 5th. Kimi will race hard and secure maybe a win, but certainly a few podiums. Grosjean will get a podium but will still make errors.

6. Williams - I fancy Williams to make a jump and finish with a semi decent season. No win like 2012 and probably no podiums due to the level of competition up front, but regular points scoring in 5th-10th places. Bottas to outscore Maldonado in his first season.

7. Sauber - I think Gutierrez may struggle for consistancy, and be outperformed easily by Hulkenberg who will score some big points but mostly 8th-10th places.

8. Force India - I think they will struggle di Resta will not be able to perform in a conservative car and second driver also. A few points scoring races and general disappointment.

9. Toro Rosso - I think they will push Force India, but the general lack of development willl see them only score a few points scoring positions.

10. Marussia - I am going to take a punt and say Chilton & ? may finish 11th once and secure 10th ahead of

11. caterham - Poor drivers and lack of progress.

12. Scorpian GP. While I know they wont take part. If they do they will be 10 seconds off the pace and fold after 4 events.

[steveaki13]

So a general final championship standings prediction. Points not accurately worked out.

1. Vettel 286
2. Alonso 265
3. Button 224
4. Webber 217
5. Hamilton 203
6. Perez 162
7. Raikkonen 158
8. Rosberg 156
9. Massa 131
10. Grosjean 86
11. Hulkenberg 64
12. Bottas 63
13. di Resta 39
14. Maldonado 34
15. Gutierrez 32
16. Daniel Ricciardo 31
17.? Force India 28
18. JE Vergne 23
19. Chilton 0 11th
20. Pic 0 12th
21. GvdGarde 0 14th
22. ? Marussia 0 15th




1. Red Bull 503
2. Ferrari 396
3. Mclaren 386
4. Mercedes 359
5. Lotus 244
6. Williams 97
7. Sauber 96
8. Force India 67
9. Toro Rosso 54
10. Marussia 0
11. Caterham 0

[rjbetty]

Ok, my final guesses before testing starts (these will mostly be spectacularly wrong probably)

N.B. It appears Paul di Resta has tweeted congrats to new team mate B.Senna, and Luiz Razia says the deal with Marussia is finally done.



CHAMPION - Here goes... Alonso! I'm sticking my neck out and guessing Ferrari will sacrifice 2014 if it gets them glory this year.
2.Vettel (still got plenty of time to break all records)
3.Button (I'm guessing McLaren are going to have the best car a little more clearly than last season. If Jenson finds 2011 form, maybe he can take WDC)
4.Massa (if Alonso wins, I'd say Massa for 4th. He always seems to bank the points even in bad seasons. He never finishes low down in the table)
5.Raikkonen (I have no idea how that Lotus will be; a small improvement or a big one - hopefully the latter)
6.Perez (too inconsistent but occassional brilliance in the best car to result in a couple of wins maybe. He almost won last season in a Sauber)
7.Webber (it might possibly just be downhill now for Mark. Hopefully with the DRS quali ban, he can find more against Vettel)
8.Hamilton (Somehow he will get that car to a win and decent results, but not expecting a top 6 in WDC)
9.Grosjean (more consistent, not totally crash-free but an improvement, however may lose a little shine...)
10.Rosberg (has shown in 2010 he can be at a high level. Can challenge Ham in quali if he finds this)
11.Hulkenberg (easily best of the rest. I think he can get his first podium. Hopefully Perez is right about Sauber improving)
12.Maldonado (not sure about Williams now. Staff are leaving etc. Pastor may now be more consistent but may rue failing to make more hay last year. Bottas may dent his confidence a little too. I expect more, but less spectacular points finishes than last year)
13.di Resta (Force India don't seem to have improved much? Behind the scenes worries too, but di Resta should be stronger if he sorts his attitude. I think he needs to realise he has to work to earn his way into a top team and not just expect it. But he can still do it.)
14.Ricciardo (I'm banking on you doing well Dan. Go and get that podium. May beat di Resta)
15.Bottas (Hopefully he can shine in at least some of the races. Could finish more like 12th in WDC if car is good)
16.Gutierrez (may be as much as +0.7sec off Hulk in qual, but closer in races. If car is good on tyres, may grab a podium? Otherwise, not that many points)
17.Vergne (the whole of 13th-18th could be very tight. I'm just guessing JEV is here)
18.Senna (tacking JUST on the back of the others. May return to decent qual form, as 2012 looked like an anomaly)
19.Pic (there's got to be a race eventually where someone gets a point)
Others


How the wins might be shared out (assuming 20 races):
Alonso - 5
Button - 5wins (but then I can see him beating Vettel if he gets more wins)
Vettel - 4
Perez - I guess 2 wins if the car is the best as I'm guessing it will be.
Raikkonen - 2 may be 0, but hopefully more than 2!)
Webber - Maybe just 1 win as in 2011 this time. Probably no more than 2.
Massa - would be good to see. I think he can take 1 win. Maybe 2... I'm sticking my neck out Felipe baby, so deliver.
Hamilton - I bet he will go and nick one somewhere, even if the car is poor.

Realistically, the pool of winners probably won't be that big, so I'll keep it at this

Other Possible winners:
Raikkonen - I have no idea. I'd say 0-2 wins. I have no idea if the car is going to be a big leap or not. This team kept improving from '01-'06. Why not again continue an upward trend from '09? Why not?
Grosjean - I don't think he will
Hulkenberg - I hope so, but probably not.
Rosberg - I can't see him transcending the car to win as Hamilton likely will.

My Constructors Table:
1.Ferrari - I'm trusting Felipe, but am thinking he will let me down - 460pts
2.Red Bull - 450pts
3.McLaren - may take 1st if drivers are up to it, and car is that good (as it could possibly be) 420ish pts
4.Lotus - 240pts
5.Mercedes - 180pts
6.Sauber - 90pts
7.Williams - 60pts
8.Force India - 50pts
9.Toro Rosso - 50pts
Others - 1pt (surely one day it's gotta happen)

[steveaki13]

I really hope so on the someone from Marussia or Caterham to finally score a point.

There must be a race where someone can smuggle a point 1 day. Although its more likely next season when the new engines and things come in and maybe the field is spread a bit and realiability is an issue.

[rjbetty]

I just ran a season through on Grand Prix 4 with 2013 performance levels (varying for qual and race). As I didn't have much time, I just accelerated the lot to get it done. Also, it's only 2001 tracks and 17 of them, but it could still give an idea.

With these levels for quali (converted to %) (and also modified for the race e.g. Hamilton's is lower +0.70 and Rosberg's +0.96 even more so)
1.Button
2.Vettel +0.07
3.Perez +0.18
4.Alonso +0.24
5.Webber +0.28
6.Massa +0.45
7.Raikkonen +0.45
8.Hamilton +0.54
9.Grosjean +0.54
10.Rosberg +0.67
11.Maldonado +0.78
12.Hulkenberg +1.04
13.Bottas +1.22
14.di Resta +1.24
15.Ricciardo +1.40
16.Senna +1.56
17.Vergne +1.57
18.Gutierrez +1.72
others about 3.6 - 4.5 sec off

I got something like this
1.Perez 220pts - 8 poles a bit too much...
2.Button 210pts
3.Massa 200pts - 2 wins early on
4.Alonso Retirements and problems. Lots of 2nds.
5.Webber
6.Grosjean
7.Raikkonen
8.Vettel - strange season
9.Hamilton 90pts - Won Hockenheim - just! Started pretty low down.
10.Hulkenberg 62pts - 2 podiums. Almost won Hockenheim from 14th on grid!! Retired with 3 laps to go while chasing Hamilton.
11.di Resta 54pts - Held on for a podium in Brazil!
12.Maldonado 40pts - Harried Gutierrez at the Nurburgring but had to settle for 4th.
13.Ricciardo 38pts - YAY he got a podium in my season too!!! At Hockenheim after Hulkenberg retired near the end Fisi style.
14.Gutierrez 33pts - Grabs a great podium from 6th on the grid at the Nurburgring, holding off Maldonado. Got fastest lap at Hockenheim.
15.Rosberg 32pts - 3rd in Malaysia and other points finishes put him well ahead of Ham, but then disaster.
16.Senna 26pts - grabbed a 5th somewhere early on.
17.Vergne 17pts
18.Bottas 3pts - 10th on debut, then... nowhere.
19.Pic 2pts - an astounding 9th place at the Nurburgring, in a field of 17 finishers!
20.Chilton 1pt - followed up Pic's performance at the next race, with less finishers.

I'm glad I rushed it through on accelerated time. This hasn't helped at all, though some of the main bits I remembered were pretty interesting.

[jens]

Rjbetty. Pérez 1st and Vettel 8th? Well, I highly suspect GP4 is not very good at predicting. :

Hmm, my thoughts...
Before the cars roll out in testing, I guess the safest guess to make is that Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari should all be pretty competitive and competing for podiums at the very least. From what I know, their design teams are pretty similar to last three seasons, so we can make some guesses based on their previous form.

Red Bull should be in the mix. The only question is if it is again open till the last race or can they make a more convincing run like in 2011. The main difference between 2011 and 2010/12 is that RBR itself managed to have a more consistent car (even won at Monza) and very good reliability as well. So they managed to fully capitalize on their speed potential. If RBR hits the ground running like in 2011 without reliability issues (like in 2010) or tyre-warming issues (like in 2012), they may well run away from others.

McLaren has designed pretty fast cars through 2010-12. Yes, even in 2011 it was pretty fast, but in both 2011 and 2012 they have had team operational issues and in both seasons there were arguments they should have won more races than they actually did. Everything is relative, but their team operations have been inferior to both RBR and Ferrari the last couple of years. Also despite the speed of the car, they have constantly had some consistency issues - in some conditions the car doesn't work very well (like at Silverstone last year). If this and the operational inferiority carries on, they are unlikely to win the title, even if the car's general speed is a match to RBR. Not to mention that neither of their drivers is a spectacular qualifying driver. This is where RBR clearly has an ace in their sleeves.

Ferrari? We can read from the last three seasons that they usually lack some outright pace, but have rather exceptional reliability and team-work. We can expect Alonso to be on the podium often, but not get many wins on outright pace. If someone gets a consistent and spectacular run (like Vettel in 2011 or Button early 2009), Alonso will be left behind in the title race. But in a more inconsistent season he will be in the mix. Of course each year Ferrari is aiming to finally design the fastest car, but it doesn't seem that they quite have it in them with their current personnel (or relatively speaking, as long as RBR and McLaren retain their design teams). However, even with slight lack of pace they have many other qualities, which make them dangerous.

The pretenders are Lotus and Mercedes. A lot is expected from them, but based on the longer trend they are not natural favourites at this stage. Lotus made a big impression last year. In some conditions (especially hot) they were on occasion genuinely capable of outracing other top teams... Was is the tyres or can they do it again? That's the big question. However, Lotus under the previous name of Renault was able to achieve podiums in 2010 and 2011 as well. So probably they will have some podium-pace at least sometimes, if not more often than that. But overall I don't expect them to win the title. Or even challenge till the end.

Mercedes has even more proving to do. There has been some serious reshuffling in the team. I get the impression it is all aimed at 2014, so miracles are not that likely in 2013.

Sauber, Williams, Force India, also STR. Occasionally impressive, perhaps an occasional podium, but that's about it.