Which Nation Will Be The First To Reach Mars?

[Rollo]

Gotta get back to the moon first, which I would expect to be a multi-national endeavour. Or, failing that, private companies.

Mercury, Gemini and Apollo was itemised and reported to Congress at a cost of about $25.4bn in 1973. If you allow 4% inflation, then that would work out to about $112.7bn in 2012 terms. Private companies would want a return from their $112.7bn and to be honest I just don't see how you could turn a profit from such a project.

[Brown, Jon Brow]

Mercury, Gemini and Apollo was itemised and reported to Congress at a cost of about $25.4bn in 1973. If you allow 4% inflation, then that would work out to about $112.7bn in 2012 terms. Private companies would want a return from their $112.7bn and to be honest I just don't see how you could turn a profit from such a project.

They could strike a deal with the BBC and SKY for viewing rights. 10 of the landings would be shown live on the BBC, but all 20 landings can be seen on pay-per-view on SKY.

[Andrewmcm]

China, if we're talking national efforts. Without question.

Or a private investor with a lot of money to burn.

[tfp]

Thankyou for all of the replies, @ Zico and Rollo thankyou for the links, they made very interesting reading!

Cant see it happening but if If it did, probably the Russians, judging from their 500 day Mars simulation in 09 they seem more serious than the US. Obama did say 2030 for a manned orbit and mid 2030's for a landing at a NASA conference in April 2010 NASA - President Barack Obama on Space Exploration in the 21st Century

...but he wont be in power then.

China.

People's Daily Online -- Roundup: China to develop deep space exploration in five years
A senior Chinese space agency official said in Beining on Wednesday that China would actively plan its deep space exploration over the next five years, focusing on lunar and Mars exploration.

Sun Laiyan, administrator of the China National Space Administration, said China would study the distribution and utilization of lunar resources and terrestrial planetary science as well as exploring scientific measures for supporting mankind's sustainable survival on Earth.

China was the third independent nation to put people into space and to the best of my knowledge, the only nation with any current plans to go to Mars.

China, if we're talking national efforts. Without question.

Or a private investor with a lot of money to burn.

Most peoples opinions seem to be pointing towards a multi-national effort(perhaps Europe?) or China. Either way, it will be one hell of an achievement if and when its done, and with modern cameras will provide much better coverage than the late 60's/early 70's cameras

[Sonic]

Mercury, Gemini and Apollo was itemised and reported to Congress at a cost of about $25.4bn in 1973. If you allow 4% inflation, then that would work out to about $112.7bn in 2012 terms. Private companies would want a return from their $112.7bn and to be honest I just don't see how you could turn a profit from such a project.

I've got no reason to doubt your figures and I think it is fair to say that a private space mission would need to accept that there would be no immediate return on investment.

[monadvspec]

Azerbaijan.

[chuck34]

Mercury, Gemini and Apollo was itemised and reported to Congress at a cost of about $25.4bn in 1973. If you allow 4% inflation, then that would work out to about $112.7bn in 2012 terms. Private companies would want a return from their $112.7bn and to be honest I just don't see how you could turn a profit from such a project.

The stated goal of Space-X (and more specifically Elon Musk) is to go to Mars. They have already orbited a Dragon capsule, and they will be sending one to the ISS in the next few months. After that they have plans to orbit a Bigalow (sp?) inflatable station. Then on to either Mars or the Moon. Granted lots of companies have had these goals in the past, but none of them have ever gotten as far down the path as Space-X. So at this point I don't really have any doubt that Space-X will get to Mars at some point.

Another point I would take a bit of exception with in your post is the costs. Even if we take the numbers for Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo at face value (which I have no reason not to), that does not mean that a program done now will cost the same. Quite the opposite in fact. The early NASA programs were literally inventing new technologies. All of which are public domain. No one has to re-invent the wheel. A fact that Space-X and other companies have taken advantage of quite well. Space-X has done basically what Gemini did for around $2 Billion (I think that's the number I've heard). So getting to the moon will not cost any where near $112 Billion.

[schmenke]

...Another point I would take a bit of exception with in your post is the costs. Even if we take the numbers for Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo at face value (which I have no reason not to), that does not mean that a program done now will cost the same. Quite the opposite in fact. The early NASA programs were literally inventing new technologies. All of which are public domain. No one has to re-invent the wheel. A fact that Space-X and other companies have taken advantage of quite well. Space-X has done basically what Gemini did for around $2 Billion (I think that's the number I've heard). So getting to the moon will not cost any where near $112 Billion.

Perhaps, but the logistics of travelling to Mars are exponentially more complex than travelling to the moon, so yes, a fair bit of wheel re-inventing is necessary.

As I said, it'll never happen.
The science and technology simply doesn't currently exist to even begin to solve many of the problems associated with manned travel to Mars.

[Mark]

As I said, it'll never happen.
The science and technology simply doesn't currently exist to even begin to solve many of the problems associated with manned travel to Mars.

Not so. We have the technology NOW to go to Mars if we so desired. The challenge is getting there without spending trillions.

[schmenke]

Sorry, yes, it is possible Mark, but certainly not feasible with our current technology.
It would take an order of magnitude advanced leap in our current technology to make it feasible.
So, as I said, it’ll never happen.