Prediction - Who will win the chase?

[Mark in Oshawa]

As a Gordon fan Im aware Im a little biased, but in all honesty, he had the car to beat the past three races and has the most momentum heading into the Chase even without the win at Richmond. At Bristol it was all anyone could do to keep up with him (clean air there this past race was absolutely ridiculous for the leader) and he worked through lap traffic like they weren't there. Atlanta they had to make all the adjustments from going to the night race to tuesday, so it shows they can adjust. And then at Richmond, minus the cuation with 12 left, it was his to lose. That being said, they have yet to run a strong Chase since the implentation of it, but that could change, seems to be a man on a mission.
I think only 5 drivers are really in the true hunt: Gordon, Johnson, Harvick, Kenseth, and Rowdy.
Johnson is too good to keep out of contention, Harvick has the lightswitch factor (can be fantastic when he wants to), Kenseth has been uber consistent all year long, and Kyle Busch is too crazy and too fast to hold down much longer, though he hasn't really had a great race the past couple of weeks.

That being said, if Keselowski had not have backed off when he was close to knocking Jr. out of the top 10 (which I completely convinced NASCAR made him do, he was flyinggg and Jr. was in a demolition derby car. They know how to keep fans coming, without Jr. in the chase, they probably lose 5-10,000 ticket sales at least per race which is sadfully true.) So Keselowski is my darkhorse, had he made the top 10, he probably wouldve been in the top 4. So consistent as of late.
I also look for Newman to have a good Chase, just not good enough.
I didn't put Kurt in there simply do to the fact he always seems a turn away from either wrecking or something going wrong with the car. Great driver, but just doesn't seem like the team has it together as well as usual this year. A couple tweaks here and there and they could win a championship or two with what they have.

Im now out of breath.

I did the math while at the race. Keselowski at one point was second and Jr. was as low as he could go pretty much, and Keselowski was still 5 points back....Kes would have had to won the race, led the most laps and Jr. still could have gotten in as long as he didn't drop further back than the 25th he was running at that point. Jr. as we saw was driving a car with very little front end from all the extra curriculars and still was hanging around. That is what Steve Letarte does..he keeps his guy in the hunt and his car in the race. You are right, for the casual Jr. Nation, they may not show up, but I am damn sure no one told Keselowski to stop running to the front....the chips fall where they do....and if Jr. Missed the chase, it wouldn't be the first time.

[Mark in Oshawa]

Good article by Dave Moody of MRN and Sirius Speedway on NASCAR 90 on Sirius on his picks:

Sirius-Speedway.com: Out On A Limb: Who Will Win The 2011 Sprint Cup

His reasoning is based on being at the track, interviewing these guys all year and seeing years of racing...me thinks I take what he says pretty seriously...

[patrickmartin]

I did the math while at the race. Keselowski at one point was second and Jr. was as low as he could go pretty much, and Keselowski was still 5 points back....Kes would have had to won the race, led the most laps and Jr. still could have gotten in as long as he didn't drop further back than the 25th he was running at that point. Jr. as we saw was driving a car with very little front end from all the extra curriculars and still was hanging around. That is what Steve Letarte does..he keeps his guy in the hunt and his car in the race. You are right, for the casual Jr. Nation, they may not show up, but I am damn sure no one told Keselowski to stop running to the front....the chips fall where they do....and if Jr. Missed the chase, it wouldn't be the first time.

yeah, I know (or would like to think) nascar wouldn't do that, but look back to the 600. The first green white checkered...or whatever the last green flag start was when Jr was leading (running on fumes), had a hell of a restart and looked to have it in the bag finally. Turn 1 Jeff Burton(I think) spins in what shouldve brought out the caution more times than not, but they didn't throw it in hopes he could make it all the way cause Lord knows he wouldn't have w/out pitting ultimately giving up the lead...they may not be blatantly doing it, but everyone knows that they're trying their hardest to put him back in the winners circle. But I think any fan of the sport has to be cheering deep down somewhere for him to win something. In order for Nascar to survive, the most popular driver (by far)has to do something ya know...just business. But who knows...maybe I'm just a conspiracy theorist lol but no I get what you're saying. (Fyi if any of my info on that was wrong forgive me, been a long day haha). We got a little off topic here, but this is my first forum, feels good to talk to some knowledgeable people.

[Mark in Oshawa]

Patrick, did the black helicopter land in your yard when they saw the tin foil hat? Alright...I am teasing you a little... C'mon....I do think there has been the odd call they have made that was a little suspect on yellows? Yes. But with all the scanners in the world there at the track and the driver only being on a public frequency, how in the heck are they going to pass on to Brad a message saying slow down or else? What happens if Jr. dropped 4 positions after they told Brad to quit passing people? Do they tell Brad to drop back and push him? You do realize the reason NASCAR insists each driver is only on a public frequency is so a)we can all listen in and b) they cant be accused of stage managing things. ...50000 people were on scanners that night, you don't think more than a few were on there listening to Keselowski's car? IF NASCAR was doing Jr. a favour, he sure as hell didn't know about it either....

[patrickmartin]

Apache as a matter of fact lol nah I'm not that bad, but I'm not gonna say that the sport is completely clean either. Do I totally think they're pulling strings for such things to happen? Hell no, like you said w/ the scanners, too many microscopes. But Jr obviously had to drive his ass off saturday night to stay above 20th w/ all the mess happening around him so kudos to him.

[slorydn1]

Patrick, did the black helicopter land in your yard when they saw the tin foil hat? Alright...I am teasing you a little... C'mon....I do think there has been the odd call they have made that was a little suspect on yellows? Yes. But with all the scanners in the world there at the track and the driver only being on a public frequency, how in the heck are they going to pass on to Brad a message saying slow down or else? What happens if Jr. dropped 4 positions after they told Brad to quit passing people? Do they tell Brad to drop back and push him? You do realize the reason NASCAR insists each driver is only on a public frequency is so a)we can all listen in and b) they cant be accused of stage managing things. ...50000 people were on scanners that night, you don't think more than a few were on there listening to Keselowski's car? IF NASCAR was doing Jr. a favour, he sure as hell didn't know about it either....

I'm not sayin he's right, but there are ways that nascar can pass messages along, even via radio, right underneath our noses and us being none the wiser. I always have 2 channels running very race i watch live-Harvick's channel, and race control. Many a time I have heard Hoots get on the horn to an official and tell him to switch to channel (2,3,4 etc) and then disappear for a while. Then some 3 or 4 laps later that official calls back on the regular channel reporting debris somewhere and then the caution is out within seconds after that....so it can happen. In order for race control to tell a driver to slow down without us knowing about it all they would have to do is call down to that drivers pit official and take him to another channel thats not being monitored (or even secure for that matter) and tell him that driver x better slow down or else. Then all that official has to do is get with the crew cheif of that driver and let him know what he needs to have his driver do if he knows what's good for him. Then all of a sudden you hear "yo dude I need you save me ALL the fuel you can this run or we arent going to make it" and problem is solved. You and I would be NONE the wiser. I'm not saying they actually do this, or that they did do that in Kes's case this past weekend-but they could very easily if they wanted too

[Lee Roy]

I'm not sayin he's right, but there are ways that nascar can pass messages along, even via radio, right underneath our noses and us being none the wiser. I always have 2 channels running very race i watch live-Harvick's channel, and race control. Many a time I have heard Hoots get on the horn to an official and tell him to switch to channel (2,3,4 etc) and then disappear for a while. Then some 3 or 4 laps later that official calls back on the regular channel reporting debris somewhere and then the caution is out within seconds after that....so it can happen. In order for race control to tell a driver to slow down without us knowing about it all they would have to do is call down to that drivers pit official and take him to another channel thats not being monitored (or even secure for that matter) and tell him that driver x better slow down or else. Then all that official has to do is get with the crew cheif of that driver and let him know what he needs to have his driver do if he knows what's good for him. Then all of a sudden you hear "yo dude I need you save me ALL the fuel you can this run or we arent going to make it" and problem is solved. You and I would be NONE the wiser. I'm not saying they actually do this, or that they did do that in Kes's case this past weekend-but they could very easily if they wanted too

Amazing that they can keep all that a secret and not one of the thousands of people involved ever say anything about it.

[MD24]

1. Jeff Gordon
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Carl Edwards
4. Kyle Busch
5. Brad Keselowski

[Mark in Oshawa]

Amazing that they can keep all that a secret and not one of the thousands of people involved ever say anything about it.

They will if they like their jobs...but I am on the fence. I don't think Hoots is fixing races or micromanging the action to any extent...but when it comes to a Debris caution...I know damn well NASCAR will toss one on occasion. Friends of mine in the marshalling community go to Watkins Glen and they were told that if they hear on the radio there is debris in their corner, and they cant see it, don't argue with race control...so take THAT for what it is......a marshal working his corner should be the one calling in debris on the track, not hearing it from race control. soooo....while I am like you Lee Roy that a lot of subterfuge would be hard to keep a secret in today's world, I don't know how to square that with the instructions my marshalling friends get from working with NASCAR on the road course.

I do know NASCAR's putting their race control and all the teams on public frequencies is a great way of saying how transparent they are, we also know in the back of our minds it is a PR exercise if you have other channels that are encrypted....

[dunes]

1st nueman
2nd harvick
3rd johnson
4th stewart
5th gordon