Mobile phones & tablets thread

[ioan]

The way I look at it is like this. If tomorrow Apple announced that they were shutting up shop and no longer making anything, what would happen? People would merely move on to other stuff. If Microsoft announced they weren't making OS's for business or office packages for business or Server OS's for business then the world would quickly grind to a halt. If RIM shut up shop there would be a lot of problems.

Apple's problem is that they've got to be popular to really sell lots of their product. The moment Apple products become uncool or someone brings out something which gets even more hype then Apple will be kicked out of bed faster than a thing that kicks stuff out of bed fast. Will that be in a years time? 2 years time? 5 years time? Who knows, but it won't last forever.

Your pretty much right about MSFT and RIM, however I do believe that Apple will survive, won't be a threat to MSFT though, as they did for many decades due to their fanatic followers.

[Jag_Warrior]

I'm sorry but that's a very simplified view of it. Sure Apple stole a march on everyone, but they've done little else other than add features which others already had since before the original iPhone was launched......

A centralised App store is the only real innovation that Apple brought to the market and even that wasn't an innovation per se, just something they marketed well and placed restrictions on which ended up being a bonus for the customer.

Simplified or not, those are the facts as they currently stand. Things may change. And as I've said previously, I can't predict that - no one can. But unless and until Microsoft develops a mobile strategy that consumers are attracted to, they will likely continue to be where they are now. Whether it's based on WP8 or some new Nokia phones, it is not going to change overnight.

As for this continuation of what the world would be like if Apple shut down vs. if Microsoft shut down... to be honest, I've never read that scenario as part of an analyst's report. I know of no one who values a corporation or stock shares based on anything like that.

Look guys, this became (from a U.S. perspective) a Chevy vs. Ford argument a long time ago. In the U.K. or Europe I'm not sure what car brands compete with one another. But again I'll say, people should buy whatever device or brand that best suits their needs. Plain & simple. These fanboy arguments are fun (for awhile) but when I buy a device, I buy that which best suits my needs. I'm not married to a brand. And when I buy (or short sell) a stock, it is based on the best fundamental and technical data that I have access to. If & when MSFT looks like a buy, I'll buy it. I have before. And if AAPL ever looks like a sell, I'll sell it. Though I have preferences, I don't (seem to) have the same emotional ties or disdain that some of you fellows seem to have.

If you like WP7 phones, buy one. If you like Androids, buy one. If you like iOS devices, buy one. Why does it bother some of you that not everybody else in the world likes (or hates) the same things you do? Sorry, but I just don't get that. Or maybe I do: Chevy vs. Ford (Mrs. A's classroom, circa 1974). So yeah, I get it. I'm just getting a bit long in the tooth to rehash it day after day.

Still long AAPL. Still happy. Shorted MSFT at $28.25, covered at 24.70 (call it the clockwork trade). Should have bought RIMM at $23+/-, but got nervous about the market gyrations. Prediction for the day: AAPL will hit $425 before MSFT sees $28. That's a touch over 10% on both stocks. But unless the market is soaring, if MSFT does hit $28 again, I'll short it again. I see nothing in its fundamentals to validate a sustained price above $28. Given Google's latest move, I just don't see another (major) player in mobile OS's leaping forward. IMO, it will be, as I said, Android, iOS and Blackberry for the foreseeable future. But we shall see...

[DonJippo]

Interesting. Some are suggesting they're just buying up Motorola for patents.

All 17000 of them with these patents they can better protect Android against Microsoft and Apple.

[Daniel]

Simplified or not, those are the facts as they currently stand. Things may change. And as I've said previously, I can't predict that - no one can. But unless and until Microsoft develops a mobile strategy that consumers are attracted to, they will likely continue to be where they are now. Whether it's based on WP8 or some new Nokia phones, it is not going to change overnight.

As for this continuation of what the world would be like if Apple shut down vs. if Microsoft shut down... to be honest, I've never read that scenario as part of an analyst's report. I know of no one who values a corporation or stock shares based on anything like that.

Look guys, this became (from a U.S. perspective) a Chevy vs. Ford argument a long time ago. In the U.K. or Europe I'm not sure what car brands compete with one another. But again I'll say, people should buy whatever device or brand that best suits their needs. Plain & simple. These fanboy arguments are fun (for awhile) but when I buy a device, I buy that which best suits my needs. I'm not married to a brand. And when I buy (or short sell) a stock, it is based on the best fundamental and technical data that I have access to. If & when MSFT looks like a buy, I'll buy it. I have before. And if AAPL ever looks like a sell, I'll sell it. Though I have preferences, I don't (seem to) have the same emotional ties or disdain that some of you fellows seem to have.

If you like WP7 phones, buy one. If you like Androids, buy one. If you like iOS devices, buy one. Why does it bother some of you that not everybody else in the world likes (or hates) the same things you do? Sorry, but I just don't get that. Or maybe I do: Chevy vs. Ford (Mrs. A's classroom, circa 1974). So yeah, I get it. I'm just getting a bit long in the tooth to rehash it day after day.

Still long AAPL. Still happy. Shorted MSFT at $28.25, covered at 24.70 (call it the clockwork trade). Should have bought RIMM at $23+/-, but got nervous about the market gyrations. Prediction for the day: AAPL will hit $425 before MSFT sees $28. That's a touch over 10% on both stocks. But unless the market is soaring, if MSFT does hit $28 again, I'll short it again. I see nothing in its fundamentals to validate a sustained price above $28. Given Google's latest move, I just don't see another (major) player in mobile OS's leaping forward. IMO, it will be, as I said, Android, iOS and Blackberry for the foreseeable future. But we shall see...

One of the points I would like to make is that people like yourselves don't seem to care what companies like Apple do to the competition as long as your stock goes up.

You've also missed out that Nokia has announced that they're going to more or less get rid of Symbian on all but the most basic of smartphones and entirely in the USA. Therefore Nokia's marketshare will = WP7 marketshare and Nokia's markesthare at the moment is a lot.......

Nokia to retire Symbian in North America, going all-in on Windows Phone -- Engadget

Then consider that your Samsung's and HTC's might not be particularly happy with Google jumping into bed with Motorola as this will almost certainly mean special treatment for Motorola handsets......

Google's Moto Mobility deal may have had Microsoft roots, comes with $2.5 billion break-up fee -- Engadget

Mango is on the way which will more or less bring WP7 up to the same level as the other mobile OS's are at.

[DonJippo]

You've also missed out that Nokia has announced that they're going to more or less get rid of Symbian on all but the most basic of smartphones and entirely in the USA. Therefore Nokia's marketshare will = WP7 marketshare and Nokia's markesthare at the moment is a lot.......

Don't know how big Nokia will be when they finally get their Windows phones out with CEO like Elop ...

Communities Dominate Brands: Coining Term: "Elop Effect" when you combine Osborne Effect and Ratner Effect

[Daniel]

Don't know how big Nokia will be when they finally get their Windows phones out with CEO like Elop ...

Communities Dominate Brands: Coining Term: "Elop Effect" when you combine Osborne Effect and Ratner Effect

All very true, why they haven't had product out yet I simply can't fathom. Saying all of your current products are obselete and then not announcing new product immediately is dumb.

[Malbec]

Apple's problem is that they've got to be popular to really sell lots of their product. The moment Apple products become uncool or someone brings out something which gets even more hype then Apple will be kicked out of bed faster than a thing that kicks stuff out of bed fast. Will that be in a years time? 2 years time? 5 years time? Who knows, but it won't last forever.

The thing is Apple have annexed entire swathes of the market. I know a lot of non-technological people for whom smartphone = iPhone, for them getting another brand wasn't on the menu. Likewise before that for many people portable MP3 player = iPod. Big brands like Sony have tried and barely left a mark on the same market despite producing similar or better products.

Like someone else said with smartphones its likely that you'll end up locked into whichever brand you get first. I've got an android phone and I stand to lose a lot of stuff if I switch to any other format. The same is true for any other mobile OS.

Apple is using their iPod and iPhone to introduce new users to their real moneymakers, the desk and laptops. Its a strategy that is working.

Geeks like you may well say that X or Y is better but the functionality and cross compatibility of Apple products makes it an attractive brand even though other individual competitors may outperform them.

[Daniel]

The thing is Apple have annexed entire swathes of the market. I know a lot of non-technological people for whom smartphone = iPhone, for them getting another brand wasn't on the menu. Likewise before that for many people portable MP3 player = iPod. Big brands like Sony have tried and barely left a mark on the same market despite producing similar or better products.

Like someone else said with smartphones its likely that you'll end up locked into whichever brand you get first. I've got an android phone and I stand to lose a lot of stuff if I switch to any other format. The same is true for any other mobile OS.

Apple is using their iPod and iPhone to introduce new users to their real moneymakers, the desk and laptops. Its a strategy that is working.

Geeks like you may well say that X or Y is better but the functionality and cross compatibility of Apple products makes it an attractive brand even though other individual competitors may outperform them.

To be honest Apple probably makes FAR more from selling iPhones and iPads than Mac's. IIRC the revenue from iPod's and iPhone's combined is roughly double that which they get from Mac's

[Daniel]

Did Apple alter photos of the Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 in its injunction filing? -- Engadget
Yet more dodgyness from Apple......

[Jag_Warrior]

One of the points I would like to make is that people like yourselves don't seem to care what companies like Apple do to the competition as long as your stock goes up.

Given that you are a huge Microsoft fan, are you sure you want to open that can of worms? More than any company since probably Standard Oil, Microsoft is featured in so many anti-trust and anti-competitive case law studies at major law schools around the country. Have you read Paul Allen's book, where he details how Bill Gates conspired with Steve Ballmer to marginalize (steal) his interest in MSFT... WHILE HE WAS FIGHTING FOR HIS LIFE BATTLING CANCER???!!! Apple would have to work overtime and hire someone to study Microsoft's dusty, old Book of Dirty Tricks and Back Stabbing just to match what they did to Netscape and a great many others. How are you able to criticize Apple and yet ignore the laundry list of things that Microsoft has done over the years??? Chevy vs. Ford? Yeah, Chevy vs. Ford.

But in answer to your question, that's essentially correct. I owned Microsoft at various times, while the charges of their anti-competitive practices were making the news. The sole purpose of a (for profit) corporation is to enhance shareholder wealth. That's it. So any (for profit) corporation which isn't doing that is failing in its mission.

If you want to be at all successful with trading or investing, you should stick with a methodology which is based on quantitative measures and avoid making decisions based on qualitatives as much as possible. P/E ratios, book value, whether or not a company beats avg. analysts' estimates, etc., matter to me on the fundamental side and RSI, stochastics, etc., matter to me on the technical side. Unless the company is facing criminal charges over something it's done, I have no way of quantifying whether a company is nice or mean, good or bad. A company that deals in stolen Holocaust gold and is run by a Colombian cocaine kingpin, who gouges out the eyes of baby seals in his spare time, no, I wouldn't buy their shares, even if earnings were growing 25% year over year.

But lawsuits are how modern companies settle disputes. In the Roman collegia days, one company would send its ex-Legionaries over to plunge daggers into the ex-Legionaries of the other company and the best knives would win. Thankfully, we've come a long way since then. Or at least the modern way is less bloody.

You've also missed out that Nokia has announced that they're going to more or less get rid of Symbian on all but the most basic of smartphones and entirely in the USA. Therefore Nokia's marketshare will = WP7 marketshare and Nokia's markesthare at the moment is a lot.......

Not at all. That's been widely known and reported for quite some time. And the market has greeted that news with a giant yawn. Nokia has been plagued with severe execution problems for several years. And until the market sees them execute, nothing is a given. Think about it. If people are not buying WP7 and people are not buying Nokia smartphones... how would you add two failures and get a success? I think adding in Nokia will help the WP7 platform, but only if they get it right. An increasing amount of Nokia's business is in cheaper, low margin "dumb phones" in developing countries. That will do nothing for Microsoft or Nokia.

I'm not predicting failure. I'm simply saying that it's not an obvious win.

Then consider that your Samsung's and HTC's might not be particularly happy with Google jumping into bed with Motorola as this will almost certainly mean special treatment for Motorola handsets......

This is a distinct possibility. But a J.P. Morgan analyst believes that Google may shut down device production at Motorola Mobility and just milk the patents, so as not to offend Samsung, HTC and the others. Also note that Nokia is up on speculation that Google's rich offer for Motorola makes them a decent takeover candidate now. If someone else (even private equity) makes a play for Nokia, I wonder if Microsoft would launch a rival bid?

Lots of possibilities. I have no idea how it might play out. But it is fun to watch.

Mango is on the way which will more or less bring WP7 up to the same level as the other mobile OS's are at.

I honestly haven't heard or read anything really bad about the current version of WP7. It seems that the overall strategy, including the marketing (a Microsoft sore spot in many areas), is more the reason for their lack of success. Will Mango make a difference? I don't know. But it seems (from reviews) that WP7 is a better mobile OS than 6.5, yet WP7 has led to a loss of market share vs. 6.5. If mango is properly featured, then it might help. But if they sit on their hands too long, Apple, Google, HP and RIM will have come up with their own shiny new toys to catch people's attention.