Iranian Presidential Elections

[Malbec]

I have heard a number of people on the right and left who study geo politics and all said Iran was ripe for revolution and the people there wanted a democracy. I wasn't so sure...but I was wrong and I hope they all work this out on their own. I wouldn't want to see a bloody civil war, but from the sounds of it, people are willing to die for their freedom here and for that, you have to respect it.

The problem is that the Iran we see in the west, the people uploading to youtube and keeping you updated on facebook and twitter are the well heeled middle class in Tehran and other major cities who DO want a democracy but not at the cost of chaos. Then there are the ones who don't get heard much outside Iran, the poor and uneducated who quite like the system as it is with its handouts and its social conservatism and who don't want to see the boat rocked too much. Both groups are large in number and obviously what makes one happy will piss off the other. I'm not convinced the 'democracy' movement will amount to much.

There are literally millions of 40-something Iranians reminding their kids that they didn't overthrow the Shah to bring in the Ayatollahs in 1979, they overthrew him without much of an idea who to bring in, the Ayatollahs took the opportunity to seize power afterwards. They don't want their kids repeating the same mistake and sacrifice everything to overthrow the current system and see it replaced by something worse. The kids are listening too, which is why they won't overthrow the Ayatollahs, merely demand reform.

[Mark in Oshawa]

The problem is that the Iran we see in the west, the people uploading to youtube and keeping you updated on facebook and twitter are the well heeled middle class in Tehran and other major cities who DO want a democracy but not at the cost of chaos. Then there are the ones who don't get heard much outside Iran, the poor and uneducated who quite like the system as it is with its handouts and its social conservatism and who don't want to see the boat rocked too much. Both groups are large in number and obviously what makes one happy will piss off the other. I'm not convinced the 'democracy' movement will amount to much.

There are literally millions of 40-something Iranians reminding their kids that they didn't overthrow the Shah to bring in the Ayatollahs in 1979, they overthrew him without much of an idea who to bring in, the Ayatollahs took the opportunity to seize power afterwards. They don't want their kids repeating the same mistake and sacrifice everything to overthrow the current system and see it replaced by something worse. The kids are listening too, which is why they won't overthrow the Ayatollahs, merely demand reform.

They may demand reform, and not want to upset the system totally, but this system wont go away and give them that reform. You keep assuming the Mullahs are reasonable people. These are the same guys with the Revolutinary Guard that kept the US hostages and have been funding Hezbollah. They also have a nasty habit of arresting foreign journalists who die during "questioning". Reasonable governments grant reform, religous theocracies do not. Push will come to shove....and there will be blood.

[Malbec]

You keep assuming the Mullahs are reasonable people. These are the same guys with the Revolutinary Guard that kept the US hostages and have been funding Hezbollah. They also have a nasty habit of arresting foreign journalists who die during "questioning". Reasonable governments grant reform, religous theocracies do not. Push will come to shove....and there will be blood.

I don't assume the mullahs are all reasonable people at all, I think Khamenei is a real turd in fact, and that most of the senior mullahs are corrupt. I don't think Ahmadinejad is much different although he is not corrupt.

I do however believe that many mullahs lead by Rafsanjani have a strong survival instinct and know that reform inside the country and a friendlier foreign policy particularly with respect to the US is essential and unavoidable.

In fact Mousavi who the guys are demonstrating for is from deep within the revolution, ran a purge of intellectuals during the Iran/Iraq war but also now believes that openness and reform are what is required.

BTW what the senior mullahs think and what the lower grade mullahs think are totally different subjects and the difference is very very interesting but is too big a subject to post about here. If left alone the clergy will reform things anyway, that is the way the tide is turning from the bottom up within the religious establishment. The thing is whether Khamenei can be pushed aside or whether people have to wait till he dies and he is replaced.

[jim mcglinchey]

[quote=Dylan
BTW what the the lower grade mullahs


..the Mullah Lites you mean..

[Malbec]

BTW Mark in Oshawa, I saw on another thread that you were wondering if the election was rigged or not rigged. Unfortunately that thread is locked so I thought I'd reply here.

Firstly there have been presidential elections in Iran since the Iran/Iraq war ended, possibly from before then. While the candidates are heavily vetted the election process itself has never been fixed before although some people claim that the Iranian equivalent of the primaries last time around had a bit of fraud going on.

I don't think the current election had international observers although I might be wrong. I know that Iranians are demanding them if there's a repeat though. Previous ones have had international observers from the UN and have been declared clean and fair. I know you're sceptical about elections in general in Iran but the whole reason people are so pissed off is because the one guarantee they've had under the government is that the presidential election itself is clean.

You're right, there is no direct evidence that the election was rigged however the circumstantial evidence is pretty strong.

- The election result doesn't match either pre-election polling or exit polling which predicted a Mousavi victory.

- The result was announced three hours after the voting finished, the Iranian constitution dictates that the interior ministry spends three days checking and rechecking the results before publicising them. The votes are written by hand and are then input into computers by hand. How can 40 million votes be counted by hand in three hours?

- The voting pattern was uniform across the country, 65% to Ahmadinejad to 30% for Mousavi. The important iffy thing is that Ahmadinejad beat the other candidates in their home towns. Iranians like the local boy to win and also know that presidents tend to award pork-barrel contracts to their hometown making it unlikely that they'll back anyone else.

- In previous elections the rule has been simple, high turnout = reformist victory, low turnout = conservative victory. High turnout = conservative victory simply doesn't compute.

- Whistleblowers in the interior ministry have claimed that the results were dud and were predetermined months in advance.

- Iranians get a personal ID number they need to do anything with the state like an American social security number. They can't vote without one, but there are claims that there are millions of ballot sheets without them.

I don't doubt that Ahmadinejad would have won in some parts of the country without difficulty but to win across the board simply isn't realistic.

[veeten]

and then, there's the young girl named Neda, who has now become a symbol/martyr of the 'new revolution'...

http://gawker.com/5299414/neda-the-f...?autoplay=true

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worl...acy-rally.html

getting harder and harder for the present Iranian regieme to make excuses, accusations and threats without the rest of the world seeing what they don't want them to see.

as Senator/Emperor Palpitine said, " All those that achieve power are loathe to relenquish it..." We are getting a first-hand look of that playing itself out, with the people being both participant and chronographer.

[Hondo]

You can bet Obama is learning from Ahmadinejad. Obama's "domestic security force" will be his revolutionary guards.

[anthonyvop]

and then, there's the young girl named Neda, who has now become a symbol/martyr of the 'new revolution'...

http://gawker.com/5299414/neda-the-f...?autoplay=true

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worl...acy-rally.html

Come on Eki and all of his ilk. Go ahead and blame the US for this "GIRL's" death!!!

[Eki]

You can bet Obama is learning from Ahmadinejad. Obama's "domestic security force" will be his revolutionary guards.

Doesn't he already have the National Guard? Or are they just for the Republicans?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_Shootings

The Kent State shootings, also known as the May 4 massacre or Kent State massacre,[2][3][4] occurred at Kent State University in the city of Kent, Ohio, and involved the shooting of unarmed college students by members of the Ohio National Guard on Monday, May 4, 1970. The guardsmen fired 67 rounds over a period of 13 seconds, killing four students and wounding nine others, one of whom suffered permanent paralysis.[5]

[Hondo]

Doesn't he already have the National Guard? Or are they just for the Republicans?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_Shootings

National Guard is part of the proper military. Obama wants a 30,000 member strong domestic security force not part of armed forces or police, but just as strong. Sort of like the Waffen SS and answering only to Obama.