One key thing to learn is that N.O.T is a bit outspoken and doesn't necessarily agree with people...he can come across as a bit of a ballbag.
I can't think of the last time that a driver won the championship who you could consider 'average', but there are certainly some who have been flattered by their car. Likewise they need a decent car to win, and some could do better with the right car, but I can't think of someone who I've thought "they should have won the championship instead of x", at least not in recent memory. That said the best drivers have generally been in the best cars for the last decade or so. This year may be the year that it happens though, Ogier is an outstanding driver but to an extent the new cars are a bit unknown so the Fiesta may not be the best of the pack.
Can Toyota get some good results? Possibly, it's difficult to say until the first rally, they've been putting a lot of testing in and probably have better mileage on their car than M-Sport...but M-Sport have the experience. Personally I think that Hyundai might have a good shot, they've been quick at some events this year and have a good team, Paddon is a quick driver and Neuville can be quick when his mind is in the right place and the car isn't wrapped around a tree. Of course the smart money would have been on VW, but then they decided to spend the money on legal cases so we'll never really know how good (or bad) the Polo was.