Who is favorite for the 2017 F1 drivers title?

If we go by the current scoreboard and the clear edge that Ferrari have on Mercedes, you would have to say Vettel. But looking at how Sochi turned out, it certainly is not quite so clear who the favorite is. It is simply too early to call.

However, it is emerging that battle for the title is not a two way fight between Vettel and Hamilton as most have thought. Based on current trend, it is looking like a three way fight with Bottas well in it now. But realistically, l suspect it could also develop into a five or six way fight, if Kimi gets his head down and Redbull delivers on its promise of a better package by Barcelona GP. Having Ricciado and Verstapenn in the mix would definitely spice things up.

But if you have to put your money on it right now, who would you put your money on for the title? Before you do, some things to consider:-

1. The Mercedes disadvantage to Ferrari is an old unresolved problem that punishes the tyres more than the Ferrari does. Hence, it is inherent in the design of the car. Not likely to be tuned out without major changes to the car.

2. Ferrari are on level engine power with the Mercedes. But have an edge in the chassis architecture which has a broader setup window for the tyres than the Mercedes has. Hence are likely to win more races than Mercedes if they do not mess up their strategy.

3. Great Launching from standstill can win a driver a races as overtaking is harder with these wider cars; as Bottas has shown in Russia. Hence Mercedes can steal wins from Ferrari on occasions.

4. Mercedes would be contending with internal battles for most of the season while Ferrari seem to be emerging into a clear Number one and number two driver formation. This would mean that the Mercedes drivers would steal points from each other while Vettel would be consolidating points.

5. When Redbull joins the fray, under performing Mercedes or Ferrari cars may be punished further by a resurgent Redbull car. Constructors points would be sacrificed by bad performances by team and driver alike at Ferrari and Mercedes.

6. Mercedes do not seem to be giving their three time world champion the car he needs to take the fight to the Ferraris. Bottas is having a great showing at the moment. But when the going really gets tough which i think would do when Redbull joins the fight at the front, which of their two drivers do you think has the experience and mettle to string together a title winning campaign in the face of a rampant Vettel and Ferrari combination?

7. Vettel is driving at his best for a long time. He looks comfortable, happy and quietly confident. I cannot say that for anyone else on the grid at the moment. Hamilton is rattled, Mercedes seem be having a delayed reaction to the shock of being the second best team on the grid suddenly.

SO WITH THESE MINOR THINGS TO CONSIDER, WHO DO YOU THINK THE FAVORITE FOR THE 2017 TITLE IS?

All else being equal the Mercedes is still a quicker car than the Ferrari. Despite the result in Russia I expect more Mercedes front row starts than those for Ferrari so I think the advantage lies with Mercedes. Ferrari's tyre advantage will only help them on circuits where degradation is an issue. On circuits with low tyre deg it won't give them that much of an advantage as we saw in Sochi.

I don't think either car is quick enough to be able to pass the other on the circuit so track position is going to be hugely important. This is an advantage to Mercedes as they have the edge in qualifying and only need a good start to lead through turn one. This puts pressure on Ferrari's strategy which, despite some good signs this year, hasn't been a strong suit for some time.

Bottas looks stronger than Raikkonen at the moment which may or may not prove to be an advantage for Mercedes. If he's quick enough to beat Vettel but not Hamilton he'll deliver the title to the Brit. No, I don't consider him a true championship contender. If he's quick enough to beat Hamilton on occasion as well he could take points away from his team mate which will help Vettel. This will force Mercedes to consider team orders which I doubt they'll like. Raikkonen looks to be a distant fourth so probably won't have too much influence on the title.

I desperate want to see Maranello win another title but my head says Hamilton and Mercedes are favourite. It's close, so very close, and I haven't enjoyed a season this much for years!

I'm thinking that Mercedes will be bringing major modifications to Spain, including weight reduction.

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A gap between the two front runners could easily open if Mercedes bring along an updated car to Barcelona that not only carries the aerodynamic and engine steps that all teams will be aiming to bring with this first major upgrade of the season, but also addresses its weight issue.

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https://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2017/...p-the-balance/
I don't know that Mercedes will "out update" Ferrari, but I have a sense that they will.

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Originally Posted by Tazio

I'm thinking that Mercedes will be bringing major modifications to Spain, including weight reduction.

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It would have to be a completely new chassis; lighter and shorter for it to matter. If Ferrari also turn up with mods for Spain, it may neutralize whatever performance gain Mercedes brings to Spain.

I think, if Mercedes get it wrong with their mods at Spain, they could be in danger of drifting further behind into the clutches of the Redbull. Most people are worried that Mercedes may turn up with mods that could put them firmly into the untouchable position they have enjoyed the last three years. I kind of wonder if the 2017 car has the scope for such a leap forward. If they cannot widen the setup window for the tyres, they would be on their back foot for the rest of the season.

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Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

It would have to be a completely new chassis; lighter and shorter for it to matter. ,.

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The Mercedes has raced in the first four races is 6kg overweight - partly as a consequence of the original gearbox having to be replaced pre-season by a heavier unit.
A reconfigured version of the original lighter gearbox is set to be part of the Barcelona upgrade, along with suspension changes front and rear and a general weight-saving programme that should allow the team to revert to being able to use ballast to vary the weight distribution from track to track.

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I think we are going to have to wait and see in this arena!

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Originally Posted by Tazio

I think we are going to have to wait and see in this arena!

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I get ya, it feels like going out on a prayer betting against the Mercedes. They always seem to manage to pull something out of the bag. For the sake of seeing a proper battle between Hamilton and Vettel, l hope they sort it out.

The new W08 Mercedes looks awesome. And it seems to have good pace but we haven't seen the Ferrari in full flight yet to make a direct comparison. Ham44 seem to be on top of his Sochi woes. It is looking like its going to be a great weekend.

With a Hamilton win in Barcelona and DNFs for Bottas and Raikonen, it is seeming like this season is developing into a battle of Champions. I remember a few years back when Vettel was winning in a Redbull and Hamilton was in a less competitive Maclaren, many said a head to head between Vettel and Hamilton would be close but many were divided as to which of the two would edge above the other. Now this season gives us a great opportunity to see how these two great world champions fair against each other in almost similar performance cars.

With the gaps between Vettel and Raikonen, Hamilton to Bottas being in excess of a race win, you would say that with the stiff competition between the two illustrious teams; Mercedes and Ferrari, that a clear number one and number two driver formation has emerged in both teams. However, this is F1 where anything is possible, particularly for Bottas.

That said, for the constructors championship, each driver must out perform his counterpart in the opposing team to ensure success on the constructors front. More important is that any operational or strategic mistake would be very expensive. Hence the team that wins the constructors championship would be the one that did the best job and took full advantages of the opportunities that presented themselves over the season. Much like the smart thinking of Mercedes at Barcelona. A race Ferrari lost rather than were beaten on pure racing.

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Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

Hence the team that wins the constructors championship would be the one the did the best job and took full advantages of the opportunities that presented themselves over the season. Much like the smart thinking of Mercedes at Barcelona. A race Ferrari lost rather than were beaten on pure racing.

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Yes, I think Ferrari didn't pay enough attention to Mercs long run performance in free practice where they looked to have improved dramatically. That isn't criticism though...
It appears that Merc have finally found the solution to their tyre wear Achilles heel, I also wrongly thought that Lewis's tyres would go off and he'd have Seb right up behind him in the closing laps.. but Lewis even banged in a fastest lap of the race with only 2 laps to go!

I feel that Mercedes probably have a better chance at the WCC with a slightly stronger driver pairing than Ferrari in Botas being slightly more preferable to Kimi, but who will win the WDC is still anyone's guess.

Based on what l have seen in Barcelona, l would stick my neck out and Say Vettel is favorite at this point. Hamilton seem to be physically struggling to compete at the level Vettel is driving. He would struggle to keep up the fight with Vettel over a full season with that level of fitness.