Probably not much bigger than the chances of Ogier staying...
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The rumors of going to Toyota are pretty strong. If Ford returns, Ogier will most likely go, but has Tänak already made up his mind? If Ford does not return, Ogier's leaving for sure. Wilson could probably afford Tänak as the number one driver, but does he want to stay? Does he also feel the team may get left behind in development like Ogier does?
299 weeks ago an important announcement was made when Ford posted a youtube video.
300 weeks would be nice to see a similar annonuncement
I'm hoping Tanak's long connection with M-Sport and their boss who has given him chances may mean he gives back some loyalty.
Being No.1 driver there should be a nice situation also.
Money may be his priority though.
Connection with Marko Martin is big too.