Yeah, I think this is just fun. Regardless of how wrong or right it goes. Actually the more wrong it goes, the more exciting it is.
And other thing is that perhaps it is not so much "prediction", but "expectation". And even if we do not predict precisely, we still have expectations. But once I thought it would be better to project those expectations in a proper prediction to systemize, what exactly do I think.
For example I can't expect like 6 teams going for the championship or all the teams doing very well or being competitive, that would be impossible! So if I play through some scenarios, I'll find out some teams naturally disappoint and regardless of the pre-season PR they can't all do well.:D
And rjbetty...
About 2000.
I didn't really predict that year, but I remember reading a newspaper section after pre-season tests and before actual season. On those days I didn't follow winter tests, so it was interesting to read, how did those comments match up to my "expectation". Basically the newspaper analysis put teams into groups in terms of how good they might be in the upcoming season. It was like that:
5 (championship contender): McLaren, Ferrari
4 (front-runner threat): Jordan
3 (should get regular points): Williams, Benetton, Sauber
2 (struggle): Jaguar, Prost, BAR, Arrows
1 (backmarker): Minardi.
I remember thinking the first three teams made sense, but was somewhat surprised to see Benetton and Sauber on level 3 (I thought particularly Benetton is going to struggle after disappointing 1999 and thought they'd fade during the season anyway as they did in 98-99) and Prost, BAR, Jaguar on level 2, while I had expected them to be more likely on "3".
More about Benetton. When I saw them being absolutely rubbish in 2001, then I thought that "oh well, I suspected this is going to happen one day anyway". Such had been my feeling since 1999 or even 1998. Especially as I was new to F1 and then learnt not long ago Michael Schumacher was winning for that team. So I guess I felt this team was a sinking ship in a way. And was relieved, when I heard that they were sold to Renault, then I thought "okay, maybe after 2002 they'll come good again".
Well, as the season started, the media projections were pretty close to be honest with the exception of BAR, who was well competing in points. And certainly in Australia it was like that in terms of speed - two top teams in front, then Jordan. And then the rest with Sauber going remarkably well and Salo competing for points.
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I think randomly thinking about the future I had a small wish for 2000, but I guess I didn't believe it could come true. Jean Alesi to win a messy wet race in the Prost Peugeot.:D A bit like Hill in 1998 and Herbert in 1999. Based on that evidence I expected each season to have one such race, which is complete chaos. All front-runners (both Ferraris and McLarens) mess up and one surprise package wins. And I wished and felt Alesi the rainmaster in the surprisingly fast Prost can capitalize on that this time!
Also thought Irvine would get at least podiums somewhere. Rjbetty, I can understand, why did you project Irvine to do so well. I guess I could have made the same mistake if tried to predict properly. The thing was that in 1999 he was a great underdog, who didn't really have speed, but all the time capitalized on other misfortunes and scored big points. So the "feeling" was that he could do that in Jaguar too while racing in upper midfield, but getting on podiums with attrition. But I certainly would not have projected him 3 wins unless there was proper chaos. And in my imagination the "chaos" win went to Alesi.:D The rest of them to Ferrari and McLaren and maybe, maybe-maybe the Jordan nicking one too somewhere.