Ogier will probably win in Portugal if everything goes ok with him, I remember hearing last year that his driving was much more kind to tyres and Loeb not so much, and in Portugal that is a big factor.
Anyway Im sure Citroen isn't going to tell Ogier to control his times by Loeb from the beggining, that is a bad decision in my point of view, because in the end what teams really want to see is one of their cars in the top of the podium.