Optimistic and Pessimistic projections for 2016
So now I will try and imagine a grid based on engine disparities, Honda still being rubbish, finances becoming even worse for smaller teams etc. Most of this is a bit tongue in cheek so enjoy! :)
:( DOOM AND GLOOM SCENARIO :(
Mercedes
1.Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2.Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) +0.30 (bigger in races)
Rosberg is totally defeated and burnt out and is now like Webber in 2011 or 2013. He provides no challenge to Hamilton. Hamilton doesn't get a single DNF, while Rosberg gets just 1, but also in race tech problems a couple of times.
Ferrari
3.Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari) +0.58
4.Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) +1.09
Ferrari are no closer than in 2015, while Raikkonen is declining. They are still closer in races to Mercedes but Hamilton and Merc are now just too good having won 2 titles each. No challenge from behind as in 2015 leading to predictable top 3's as usual.
Williams
5.Valtteri Bottas (Williams) +1.24
6.Felipe Massa (Williams) +1.42
Williams are no closer to the front and have peaked, looking stumped as to how to progress. Bottas is grumpy at not getting a 'top' drive (is Williams so terrible?) leading to unhappiness and tensions under the surface. Massa isn't grumpy but looks forlorn and it shows in his driving. The team line up is now becoming stale. There is grumbling about still being stuck with a 2015 engine for a suspiciously long time.
Toro Rosso
7.Carlos Sainz (Toro Rosso) +1.42
8.Max Verstappen (Toro Rosso) +1.47
Running a year old Ferrari engine, which by now isn't really much faster than a Renault, Toro Rosso still do actually close up somewhat due to drivers getting quicker and other teams struggling. Performance and strategy still suck in races meaning points lost. Driver tensions escalate and they fall out. Sainz sacked at season's end, or completely demoted to no.2 causing unhappiness. Max nevertheless finishes in top 8 in championship. Sainz has terrible reliability and mistakes leading to few points.
Red Bull
9.Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull) +2.0
10.Daniil Kvyat (Red Bull) +2.1
Lumped with Honda engines (and second tier ones at that!) since they were the only company who bended to the Bernie's arm twisting. McLaren see to it that RBR are screwed as much as possible. Bitter war of words all season between Ron Dennis and Helmut Marko, with supporting roles of Horner v Bouiller. Honda prove to be totally clueless to the point of complete delusion and like Renault in 2015 have hardly improved at all. ERS is still bad and unreliable, and Honda look in no rush to fix it.
What's more, Newey isn't much interested any more and the effects of his stepping back and Peter Prodromou's leaving are now being more keenly felt as the chassis starts to fall back a bit. They even get outperformed by McLaren quite often.
If you thought Mateschitz and co moaned in 2015 this is the real nightmare. Even Ricciardo loses his smile and a sad Dietrich considers whether it's worth paying $400 million to cut his losses and get out of F1.
Force India
12.Nico Hulkenberg (Force India) +2.41
14.Sergio Perez (Force India) +2.46
Celebrations at finishing 5th in the 2015 WCC are short lived as the team again fail to make the even earlier winter testing. They again start the season off the pace with a 2015 car, and are forced to run de facto 2015 Mercedes engines. Vijay is now in big trouble and now the team can't even develop their way back much, like they did in 2015. Prize money from their 2015 keeps them going, plus Perez's sponsor money, but things getting a bit more frugal. Hulkenberg goes completely off the boil and loses confidence, causing Vijay to criticise him in public. Relations go downhill from there and no-one is surprised when Hulk leaves F1 for the WEC at the end of the season, perhaps even earlier. Team still finish at least 7th in the WCC due to shrewd racecraft etc.
McLaren
11.Fernando Alonso (McLaren) +2.24
15.Jenson Button (McLaren) +2.51
Well even in a nightmare scenario it's better than 2015, but not by a huge amount. Ron Dennis gets unhappy at Honda's lack of progress and Alonso continues to have his patience tested with more radio outbursts. Semi-regular minor points ensue. The only saving grace is that Red Bull are hardly much better and Ron is satisfied at Alonso making the difference on several occasions. They lose 1 or 2 good opportunities through unreliability and misfortune. Jenson loses interest, with some qualifying failures again making a bigger gap to Alonso, and fades into that faintly mediocre mode he sometimes go in. He retires at the end of the season.
Sauber
Another team struggling financially but doing ok enough to survive. They miss the first test. Chassis doesn't close on Mercedes much at all and they are stuck with a 2015 spec PU. At least drivers are more experienced and quicker, but still don't make the most of their opportunities.
14.Felipe Nasr (Sauber) +2.48
16.Marcus Ericsson (Sauber) +2.79
Renault
The worst case scenario is Renault don't take over and the team fold altogether. Or they continue as Lotus but are REALLY in a mess. They miss most of winter testing with an unprepared car. The Renault engine is still poor, and drivers suck. They really are nowhere much all season, and points are few - it really is 2014 again. Their livery is an extremely dull and uninspired yellow, despite the fact Forti and Jordan proved that colour can work fantastically. Palmer wonders what he has gotten into and in this situation is nowhere all season.
17.Pastor Maldonado +3.3
20.Jolyon Palmer +4.1
Haas
The Dallara chassis lacks downforce terribly. Gene Haas turns out to be clueless and Grosjean wonders "Mon ami, what 'ave I gotten myself into?" before glancing over at Renault and realising maybe things aren't so bad. Gutierrez after a year out is timid as ever, and looks out of his depth. There are no points but the team do beat Manor on countback of best results.
18.Romain Grosjean +3.7
22.Esteban Gutierrez +4.3
Manor
Despite Williams and Force India getting Merc hand-me-down PUs, Manor do indeed at least get something more up to date along with fuels. Team struggle to make their bills though, but do survive on goodwill for a while. Rookie drivers unable to make most of package and they miss out on some good opportunities. As a result they finish 11th in the WCC. They score no points. Bernie continues his vendetta against the team.
19.Pascal Wehrlein +3.8
21.Alexander Rossi +4.3
And now the optimistic 2016 season!
1.Mercedes
They still win and Hamilton still wins and beats Rosberg but only after a mathematical three-way fight taken to the last race. There are some DNFs due to the team having to push the envelope a bit to keep ahead of Ferrari.
1.Lewis Hamilton
2.Nico Rosberg +0.12
2.Ferrari
Ferrari have closed right up and in races Vettel is arguably maybe the quickest. He wins several races and remains in real contention most of the way after a slightly off start with a DNF in Malaysia. Seb either wins the title or comes so close that he would have won it if not caught in traffic during a crazy Brazilian Grand Prix. Kimi takes the most popular win of the season somewhere, and maybe adds another. He is consistently in the top 4 with a string of podiums and remains in outside title contention, only mathematically falling out in the final races.
3.Sebastian Vettel +0.30
6.Kimi Raikkonen +0.71
3.Red Bull
Red Bull continue with Renault who make quite a big improvement. Drivers each claim a pole position and a race victory.
4.Daniel Ricciardo +0.60
5.Daniil Kvyat +0.69
4.Williams
Massa claims a surprise pole in Canada and both drivers score podiums. Bottas delivers on his promise to be more aggressive and challenges the Red Bulls in the WDC.
7.Valtteri Bottas +0.74
8.Felipe Massa +0.86
5.McLaren
Honda are much improved and Alonso makes it through to Q3 in Melbourne. Peter Prodromou's first full design for McLaren is a neat treat and the team nip at the heels of Williams and Red Bull all season.
10.Fernando Alonso +1.04
12.Jenson Button +1.24
6.Toro Rosso
With a customer Ferrari engine and more experienced and faster drivers, plus some more chassis gains, Toro Rosso are a fixture in the top 10 all season, with a few top 3 grid slots. They aren't as quick in races but Max Verstappen grabs 2 podiums and picks up points in more races than not to do a Vettel 2008 and finish in the top 10 in the WDC. Sainz still impresses anyway.
9.Carlos Sainz +1.04
11.Max Verstappen +1.10
7.Force India
Perez in particular continues to shine and picks up a superb 2nd place in Monza having qualified 3rd on the grid.
13.Nico Hulkenberg +1.38
14.Sergio Perez +1.54
8.Sauber
Drivers improve and still manage a pretty good tally even though other teams have surpassed them.
15.Felipe Nasr +1.74
18.Marcus Ericsson +2.04
9.Renault
A transitional year but still able to impress on occasion.
16.Pastor Maldonado +2.02
21.Jolyon Palmer +2.57
9.Haas
The team impress straightway with Grosjean qualifying 14th in Melbourne. It's no fluke as he makes Q2 several times over the season, although there are some back row starts too. In some races Grosjean is very competitive indeed, running up in the top 10.
17.Grosjean +2.03
20.Gutierrez +2.53
10.Manor
With a Mercedes engine + the works, a definitive 2016 chassis under the guidance of Bob Bell, and support from Williams and Mercedes, Manor are one of the feel good stories of F1. Several Q2 appearances, and performing very well indeed at some circuits. They sometimes run in the top 10 after starts and are able to hold position for a good while.
19.Pascal Wehrlein +2.51
20.Alexander Rossi +2.98