Originally Posted by
[WRCRR]
The problem most manufacturers have with joining WRC is that there is so little to gain in today’s atmosphere. I feel even with Toyota dominating WRC the last few years they have gotten very little out of that – luckily Toyota has a motorsport guy at the helm so he will keep them involved regardless. Hyundai has gotten even less (manufacturer champion, does anyone remember?), and now with ex-circuit racing guy leading them I do wonder if they stay for long. If the Red Bull-Ford tie in happens in F1 from 2026 there is even less reason for Ford to be involved in rallying, unless it is a “Malcolm Wilson Special” kind of deal. Renault and Opel (Stellantis) have showed interest but only in electrical rallying. Chinese might come or might not.
It is useless to compare to F1 as the customer element is not really there is true sense, unlike it is in for example WRC and GT’s/WEC. The players who have stayed the longest in motorsport in general are not just factory teams build as marketing effort and/or for showcasing a new technology. They are the ones who have managed to make the customer side a business in itself.
Look at how long M-Sport has managed to hang in there, for years without proper factory support and/or sponsors. It is the strength of their customer side that has given them the backbone. Same with Porsche in GT’s/WEC – even their brand new LMDh program is already a success as a customer business – like basically every single program Porsche has even run in circuit racing (with few exceptions).
The current massive growth of WEC is not sustainable, like it was not in WRC some 20 years ago. The main reason is that most of the players will not manage, or even try to, make it a successful customer game. Porsche will, probably Lamborghini will as well (they are not even coming in to WEC with factory team, it is customer team(s) with factory support). Some others might as well. Toyota and Peugeot probably won’t. At least two efforts are now in WEC (Ferrari, Alpine 2024) because of F1 cost cap and the companies not wanting to lay off a sizable part of their racing division…not really the strongest base to build a long-term programme.
Current Rally1 cars are simply too expensive to make the customer game work, same as the WRC 2017’s were. Only millionaires (or billionaires) are able to buy/rent them, basically. Just ask Malcolm how many Fiesta WRC’s or Puma Rally1’s he has sold. Personally I don’t even like the current cars much, they are too small and too “hot-hatchy” (esp. Toyota/Hyundai) – I much preferred the 1997-2010 WRC’s compared to 2011-2016 WRC’s.
So what is the solution – Rally2+ ? It might serve as a solution especially as the “usual suspects” who would likely join (Citroën and Skoda) have a pretty strong customer-oriented base for their rallying. They would join top level with the backbone already in place. But then…the more players you get on the field, the less chance each of them has for winning, without a spending war. There are “solutions” to that as well, but would WRC like to go down that route…I am of course talking about Balance of Performance (BoP).
WEC has been BoP’d for years already. I personally hope WRC does not because a BoP game as well, although there of course are very good arguments to why it should – it is very difficult to lay out a rules framework where you at the same time keep costs in (relative) check, while at the same time making sure someone is not completely locked out from the fight for the win because they locked in a bad design.
There is a need for balancing, yet I have never seen BoP done right – and can it even be done? When you win when BoP is in place, do you win because of it or regardless of it? In WEC almost all competitiveness arguments always circle around BoP, the winner boasting that they won even with the current BoP, with the loser complaining that they have no chance with the BoP as it is. A cost cap is maybe better option, but not without it's problems (managing the cost cap costs money, just check how many administrative professionals F1 teams have now hired) - also with rallying you have to have a pretty low cost cap for it to work.
So a WRC with BoP and/or cost cap might lure some new players to the game, even if there is not “cutting edge hydrogen” whatnot in the rules on offer. But would they come to play and maybe win, or stay in the long game making the customer side a business and thus having the backbone even during (possibly multiple) lean years to say to the board: “Yeah we might not be winning now but we are still business wise on good track.”
My personal guess is that from 2025 we will see maximum 3 manufacturers in WRC. Small chance that 1 player would be new and one current would leave. Rules will be Rally1 based for 3 years (2025-2027), not 100% electric, not hydrogen. For 2028 a completely new rules framework will be in play, then some new players will join – new energies (plural) will be involved.