Hollande the Pres of France

**Rudy Tamasz** · 8th May 12, 07:56

Is it good or bad for Europe? I'm slightly confused. His program sure sounds attractive to a lot of people. One thing I don't understand though, is how he's gonna bankroll his social programs, job creation etc.

**odykas** · 8th May 12, 09:45

RIP Merkozy

Long live Merkhollande

**F1boat** · 8th May 12, 10:56

I am happy for Hollande and I think that people in Europe, in the local elections in UK and Germany, in Greece with their radical parties, in France with Hollande, they said that your plan can't be austerity only, with no jobs and people committing suicides because of the crisis... people elect governments, not Wallstreet!

**Malbec** · 8th May 12, 11:27

Originally Posted by Starter

France, among other countries, is in deep debt because of spending much more than they took in. So let's see.....increase your spending and tax the heck out of everything (but still take in less in tax then you spend).....yep, give it a couple of years and it'll fix everything.

Hollande's only real change to Sarkozy's fiscal commitments is that he wants to balance books by 2016 instead of 2015 so I wouldn't expect major changes. He's refused to backtrack on Sarkozy's reforms too. I also think that a rapid cut in spending in one of Europe's biggest economies is going to have a major negative impact on growth throughout the region so not I'm not too bothered that he's going to slow the pace of the cuts by a year or so.

Although I tend to be sceptical of French left-wingers I think Hollande is pragmatic and won't rush into major policy reversals. Where I think he'll be very different from Sarkozy is that I think he'll be far less proactive in major incidents like Libya or the Euro crisis.

Frankly Sarkozy made himself unelectable, not through his economic policies but because of his swerve to the far right on immigration issues and because of his bling-bling personality better suited to a tinpot African dictatorship.

**Mark** · 8th May 12, 12:11

Originally Posted by Starter

France, among other countries, is in deep debt because of spending much more than they took in. So let's see.....increase your spending and tax the heck out of everything (but still take in less in tax then you spend).....yep, give it a couple of years and it'll fix everything.

The problem is, as is happening in the UK, you cut and cut and put taxes up, you end up killing your own economy, put yourself into recession and and up making the defecit worse, not better.

As ever the correct course is the least exciting one, no drastic cuts, no drastic spending, just being sensible -- unfortunately being sensible isn't 'sexy' and doesn't get you the headlines.

**Rudy Tamasz** · 8th May 12, 13:33

Originally Posted by F1boat

I am happy for Hollande and I think that people in Europe, in the local elections in UK and Germany, in Greece with their radical parties, in France with Hollande, they said that your plan can't be austerity only, with no jobs and people committing suicides because of the crisis... people elect governments, not Wallstreet!

No austerity, fine. Who will foot the bill?

To keep living a high life you have two options. One is the inflationist model where you stimulate growth through consumption. But this is exactly the model that has been in place for the last twenty years or so and brought European economies to the brink of collapse. Using it to fix the economy is like using a shot of heroine to cure a drug addiction. Another option is to tax the heck out of the wealthier. That is, if you catch them before they board their private jets and land for good in numerous tax havens around the world. I honestly don't see economies can become healthier without austerity measures.

**Mark** · 8th May 12, 15:24

Please.... Let's not turn this thread into "WAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAA LIBERALS", not that anybody has any idea what that term even means

**Mark** · 8th May 12, 15:45

'Liberals' might mean something to Americans, but whatever it is, it's not the same in Europe, so I'd avoid using that term.

**Malbec** · 8th May 12, 15:50

Originally Posted by Starter

One thing that most liberals and many of everyone else seems to forget, to their eventual regret, is that the one inviolate rule of economics is TANSTAAFL.

It would appear that as a former economist who has vowed to wipe out the deficit Hollande is not one of them, so I'm not sure who your comment refers to.

**Gregor-y** · 8th May 12, 19:22

Did Sarkozy make a fairly naked appeal to FN supporters just before the election? And did Hollande do anything similar? If anything I'm happy to see trying to move to the right (at least in the form as it exists in France) isn't the solution.

**ioan** · 8th May 12, 19:54

Originally Posted by Rudy Tamasz

Is it good or bad for Europe? I'm slightly confused. His program sure sounds attractive to a lot of people. One thing I don't understand though, is how he's gonna bankroll his social programs, job creation etc.

I suggest we all wish good luck, lots of it to the French people especially to those who voted this guy.

**Rollo** · 8th May 12, 21:37

Originally Posted by Rudy Tamasz

No austerity, fine. Who will foot the bill?

To keep living a high life you have two options. One is the inflationist model where you stimulate growth through consumption. But this is exactly the model that has been in place for the last twenty years or so and brought European economies to the brink of collapse. Using it to fix the economy is like using a shot of heroine to cure a drug addiction. Another option is to tax the heck out of the wealthier. That is, if you catch them before they board their private jets and land for good in numerous tax havens around the world. I honestly don't see economies can become healthier without austerity measures.

Another option would be to make the taxation system more efficient at doing what it's supposed to.

During the debates on France 2, Hollande said that he'd merge Income Tax and the General Social Contribution. The top rate is to be shifted from 41% to 45% but there's also supposed to be an increase in the exempt threshold. He's also suggested that he intends to abolish the Impôt de Solidarité sur la Fortune (ISF); as I understand it, the ISF is a direct wealth tax on people who hold more than €800K in assets. The idea being to stop the rich leaving the system altogether.
A whole raft of taxation policies and removing the loopholes which exist, are supposed to colletively bring in €29b, which would be more than the money he intends to spend.

I see Hollande as moving France back towards a Chirac style presidency, and you need to remember that Chirac from 2002 was able to achieve net government surpluses and France established a net positive Balance of Payments.

For a "socialist" President, it's odd that Le Figaro maintained a neutral stance about him.

**Big Ben** · 8th May 12, 21:38

Looks to me the french had the classical political choice between the dumb and the dumber... The tricky part is figuring which is which. I hope for the sake of Europe and France most of the things he promised are just the typical socialist bull$h1t that we'll soon be forgotten when facing the reality.

**Malbec** · 9th May 12, 11:22

Originally Posted by Rollo

During the debates on France 2, Hollande said that he'd merge Income Tax and the General Social Contribution. The top rate is to be shifted from 41% to 45% but there's also supposed to be an increase in the exempt threshold. He's also suggested that he intends to abolish the Impôt de Solidarité sur la Fortune (ISF); as I understand it, the ISF is a direct wealth tax on people who hold more than €800K in assets. The idea being to stop the rich leaving the system altogether.
A whole raft of taxation policies and removing the loopholes which exist, are supposed to colletively bring in €29b, which would be more than the money he intends to spend.

Interesting stuff. Would be good if he delivered on it. The asset tax was a ridiculous idea that guaranteed that high value items would be exported out of the country, I'm glad thats gone.

**Roamy** · 9th May 12, 17:13

When I tour the Muslim wineries is South France will my girlfriend have to wear a Burka??

**Dave B** · 9th May 12, 17:21

Originally Posted by Roamy

When I tour the Muslim wineries is South France will my girlfriend have to wear a Burka??

Just let the air out of her and stuff her in your rucksack.

**driveace** · 9th May 12, 17:59

How long will the Euro survive now? Or can it really survive another 5 years ?I see many country,s going back to their own currencies before long !

**Rudy Tamasz** · 9th May 12, 18:33

Originally Posted by Rollo

Another option would be to make the taxation system more efficient at doing what it's supposed to.

During the debates on France 2, Hollande said that he'd merge Income Tax and the General Social Contribution. The top rate is to be shifted from 41% to 45% but there's also supposed to be an increase in the exempt threshold. He's also suggested that he intends to abolish the Impôt de Solidarité sur la Fortune (ISF); as I understand it, the ISF is a direct wealth tax on people who hold more than €800K in assets. The idea being to stop the rich leaving the system altogether.
A whole raft of taxation policies and removing the loopholes which exist, are supposed to colletively bring in €29b, which would be more than the money he intends to spend.

I see Hollande as moving France back towards a Chirac style presidency, and you need to remember that Chirac from 2002 was able to achieve net government surpluses and France established a net positive Balance of Payments.

For a "socialist" President, it's odd that Le Figaro maintained a neutral stance about him.

Might be a reasonable strategy.